- Florida holds its primary on August 18, its first open governor's race in eight years, since Ron DeSantis is term-limited. Voters also fill a U.S. Senate seat and every one of the state's 28 House districts.
- The headline race is the Republican primary for governor, and it is not close. U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, endorsed by President Trump, leads the field by more than 30 points.
- The market agrees. Polymarket and Kalshi price Donalds near 90 percent to win the nomination, and give Republicans about 82 percent to hold the governor's office in November.
- The Senate race is a special election for Marco Rubio's old seat. Appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is the favorite, leading Democrats Alex Vindman and Angie Nixon by 8 to 10 points in the polls.
- For a bettor, Florida is mostly chalk. The state has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994, and the Republican nominees are heavy favorites up and down the ballot.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - Florida votes Tuesday, and for the first time in eight years the governor's office is open, with DeSantis term-limited. That would normally make for a wide-open race. Instead, one man has all but locked it up before a vote is cast. This is a state that has turned solidly Republican, one that has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994. So the Republican primaries are where the winners are really chosen, and the biggest is close to over. You can see the whole slate on the Florida election odds, but the story starts with the race to replace DeSantis.
Governor: Donalds Runs Away
The Republican primary for governor is the marquee race, and it is a runaway. U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, a close Trump ally from southwest Florida, has led every poll by wide margins, most by 30 points or more. He also carries the president's endorsement. On the governor odds, Polymarket and Kalshi price him near 90 percent to win the nomination. His rivals, including Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner, and investor James Fishback, have not come close. There is one interesting wrinkle. DeSantis has not endorsed anyone, not even Collins, his own lieutenant governor, a quiet sign of the long chill between the governor and Trump's wing of the party. It has not mattered. On the Democratic side, former Rep. David Jolly, a onetime Republican who switched parties, is the likely nominee. But the general election is rated Safe Republican, and traders give the GOP about 82 percent to keep the office. Donalds is, in all likelihood, the next governor of Florida.
U.S. Senate: Moody Defends Rubio's Old Seat
The Senate race is a special election, and it exists because of a chain reaction. When Marco Rubio became Secretary of State in 2025, DeSantis appointed then-Attorney General Ashley Moody to his seat. Now Moody is running to keep it for the final two years of the term, and she is the clear favorite. On the U.S. Senate odds, Moody leads her likely Democratic opponents by 8 to 10 points in the polls, and Florida has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since Bill Nelson left in 2019. The one live question is which Democrat she faces. The Democratic primary pits Alex Vindman, the retired Army officer who became a national figure during Trump's first impeachment, against state Rep. Angie Nixon. At least one poll has shown Nixon running the stronger race. Either way, Moody starts the fall well ahead.
U.S. House: A Gerrymandered Map and an Open Seat
Florida's 28 House seats are mostly settled before they start. The map Republicans drew in 2022 gives them a lopsided edge, around 20 seats to 8, and few districts are genuinely in play. The one to note is the 19th, in southwest Florida, which Donalds is giving up to run for governor. In a district this red, the Republican primary is the real contest, and the winner is all but certain to hold it. Elsewhere the incumbents are heavy favorites, and prediction markets rarely price House primaries, so on the House odds the few competitive races wait until the fall.
Down the Ballot
Florida also fills its Cabinet on Tuesday, and those races are livelier than the top of the ticket, at least in the primaries. Both parties hold contested primaries for chief financial officer, and there are races for attorney general, held by DeSantis appointee James Uthmeier, and agriculture commissioner. As with everything else in Florida this year, though, the Republican winners will start the general election as strong favorites. The primary is where the intrigue is. November, much less so.
The Bettor's Read
Florida is a chalk state now, and this ballot shows it. Byron Donalds near 90 percent for the nomination and about 82 percent to win in November is not a bet worth making at those prices, and Ashley Moody is a heavy favorite for the Senate. The value, if there is any, is small and specific. It is the Democratic Senate primary, where Angie Nixon may be a live underdog against the better-known Alex Vindman. And it is the question of whether Donalds's margin ever tightens enough to make the general interesting, which the market doubts. The one thing worth watching for the future is the DeSantis-Trump undercurrent, with the governor sitting out his own party's biggest race. As always, primary results can move the fall numbers, so refresh before you act. For the latest election odds, Florida is a state where the winners are mostly known and the fun is in the details.
