- Election-market prices pulled Oct. 27 put Abdul El-Sayed at 69% and Mike Rogers at 32% for Michigan’s open Senate seat.
- El-Sayed’s daily close stayed between 66% and 69% across the nine days ending Oct. 27, a range of three points.
- Marist’s Oct. 15-18 polling put the likely-voter race at El-Sayed 50%, Rogers 48%, inside a 4.3-point error margin.
- Michigan Democrats have taken nine straight U.S. Senate elections, and a Rogers win would end a streak dating to Spencer Abraham’s 2000 loss.
DETROIT – Michigan Senate odds have kept Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 66% to 69% over Republican Mike Rogers at every daily close across the nine days ending Oct. 27, with Election Day six days away on Nov. 3. Election-market prices pulled Oct. 27 put El-Sayed at 69% and Rogers at 32%.
Prices Pulled Oct. 27 Put El-Sayed At 69% And Rogers At 32%
Election-market prices pulled at 5:05 a.m. ET on Oct. 27 had El-Sayed at 69% at the first market and 68.5% at the second, with Rogers at 32% at both. The table compares the Michigan election odds at the two markets.
| Candidate | First Market Odds | Second Market Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 69% | 68.5% |
| Mike Rogers (R) | 32% | 32% |
Source: election-market prices from two markets, pulled at 5:05 a.m. ET on Oct. 27.
At that pull the two markets differed by half a point on El-Sayed and agreed on Rogers. A recheck at about 5:40 a.m. ET on Oct. 28 had the first market at 69% for El-Sayed and 34% for Rogers, and the second market at 69.5% for El-Sayed, up 1 point on the day, and 30.5% for Rogers, down 1.5 points.
El-Sayed’s Daily Close Stayed Within Three Points From Oct. 19-27
El-Sayed closed at 69% on five of the nine days, at 67% on two, at 68% once and at 66% once, on Oct. 25. The three-point range was the most that timing could have gained on an El-Sayed position over those nine days.
| Date | El-Sayed Odds |
|---|---|
| Oct. 19 | 69% |
| Oct. 20 | 69% |
| Oct. 21 | 69% |
| Oct. 22 | 69% |
| Oct. 23 | 67% |
| Oct. 24 | 68% |
| Oct. 25 | 66% |
| Oct. 26 | 67% |
| Oct. 27 | 69% |
Source: El-Sayed’s daily closes at the first market, Oct. 19-27, each trading day ending at midnight ET.
The Price Did Not Move On The Oct. 21 Poll Or Debate
Marist polled 1,185 registered voters Oct. 15-18 and released the numbers Oct. 21, the day the candidates met for their final debate: El-Sayed 50%, Rogers 48% among likely voters, the Marist Poll release shows. Marist put the likely-voter margin of error at 4.3 points, so the 2-point edge does not separate the candidates statistically. Among all registered voters, El-Sayed’s lead grew to 7 points.
El-Sayed closed at 69% on Oct. 21 and at 69% again on Oct. 22. The gap between the candidates’ prices, 37 points on Oct. 27, is 35 points wider than the likely-voter poll margin, and the registered-voter result points the same way as the market. Unfavorable ratings ran at 48% for El-Sayed and 52% for Rogers among likely voters, WXYZ Detroit reported.
Alaska’s Peltola Holds Near 74% As Nebraska’s Osborn Sits At 28%
In the Oct. 28 recheck, Democrat Mary Peltola was at 74% in Alaska’s Senate race at the first market, within a point of her 73% close on Oct. 19. In Nebraska, the second market had independent Dan Osborn at 28% against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts at 72%.
Nine Straight Democratic Wins Precede An Open Seat
Democratic Sen. Gary Peters said Jan. 28, 2025, that he would not seek a third term, which opened the seat. Michigan Democrats have taken nine consecutive U.S. Senate elections, WXYZ reported, and a win by Rogers, a former U.S. House member, would send the state its first Republican senator since Spencer Abraham, who lost his 2000 reelection bid.
The Michigan election odds have favored El-Sayed since his August primary win, when the Michigan 2026 primary recap had the general-election market near 62%. The 69% price is 7 points higher. Election Day is Nov. 3.
