- For the first time all summer, a closing favorite lost. Stefany Shaheen won the NH-01 Democratic primary with 37.2 percent of the vote to Maura Sullivan's 34.9, by 2.3 points.
- That cost the market. Kalshi marked Shaheen down from above 80 cents to 29 and flipped the board to Sullivan at 63, so anyone holding the old favorite collected about two and a half to one.
- The Senate boards paid what the prices said. John E. Sununu closed near 97.6 cents and took 68.6 percent of the Republican vote to Scott Brown's 26.6.
- Chris Pappas traded above 95 cents and won the Democratic nod with about 62 percent, but the fight against progressive Karishma Manzur was tougher than a price that high suggests.
- Kelly Ayotte was a 99 cent favorite for the governor nomination and carried 92 percent of the primary vote. The November board still has Republicans near 83 percent to hold the office.
CONCORD, NH - New Hampshire voted Tuesday in the last state primary of the cycle, and the night split in two. The Senate and governor boards were finished weeks ago, and they settled where they were priced. The First District did not. There the exchanges spent two weeks repricing a nine candidate race off two polls, landed on the wrong candidate, and watched the old favorite win at 12:35 in the morning. Two open seats now head to November, so the real money is still ahead. The full board sits on the New Hampshire race odds.
U.S. Senate: Sununu and Pappas Advance as Priced
Sununu closed near 97.6 cents on Kalshi, a 98 percent chance at the nomination. He took 68.6 percent of the primary vote to Brown's 26.6, and the AP called it just after 8 p.m. The Trump endorsement in February was the whole race. Brown moved up from Massachusetts and ran to Sununu's right, but he never found a foothold once that endorsement went the other way. Sununu skipped the final debate on August 31 and the number did not move.
Pappas is the more interesting line. His nomination contract traded above 95 cents, and he finished near 62 percent against Manzur, a medical scientist from Exeter in her first campaign. Nobody backing him lost money on a 27 point win. Still, that is tighter than a 95 cent price implies against an opponent with little name recognition or money, and it is the latest case of a progressive newcomer outrunning the market.
November holds the widest disagreement on the map. Before Tuesday the board had Democrats near 89 percent to take the open seat, with Polymarket close to 86. RealClearPolitics rated the same race a toss-up, with Pappas up 2.0 in the polling average. One of those two is badly wrong. With the matchup locked, expect the Senate race odds to reprice this week.
U.S. House: The Board Flipped and Got It Wrong
Shaheen sat above 80 cents in July. Then Saint Anselm polled NH-01 on August 17 and 18 and found Sullivan ahead 26 to 24, and UNH followed with Sullivan up 24 to 19. Both exchanges cut Shaheen into the mid 50s within days, and the last Kalshi listing before the vote had Sullivan at 63 cents against Shaheen at 29. Then the votes came in. Shaheen, a former Portsmouth city councilor and the retiring senator's daughter, took 37.2 percent to Sullivan's 34.9, with Carleigh Beriont near 22 in a nine candidate field. The AP held off until 12:35 a.m., fewer than 2,000 votes between the top two.
This is the cleanest market miss of the summer. Two small-sample polls moved a thin book roughly 50 cents in ten days while the fundamentals barely moved. Sullivan had the money, $3.33 million to $2.21 million, and cast Shaheen as a dynasty candidate. Shaheen had the name, the endorsements, and a full-cycle polling average of 25.1 percent to 13.7. That average was closer to the truth than the surveys that repriced the board.
Anthony DiLorenzo took the Republican nomination at 90 cents or better. He faces Shaheen in a district Harris carried by 2 points, and Republicans finally get an open-seat shot. That makes the House race odds here the most interesting in New England this fall.
Governor: Ayotte Coasts, and Nothing Pays
Kalshi priced Ayotte at 99 cents to win the nomination. She carried about 92 percent of the Republican vote, against 4.1 percent for Shaun Fife and 3.6 for Bob McClory. Cinde Warmington ran unopposed, so this matchup was set long before anyone voted.
November has a price, though not a generous one. The board keeps Republicans near 83 percent, and UNH had Ayotte up 49 to 39 in late August. Republicans have won every governor race here since 2016, and she took 2024 by 9.34 points of the vote. These governor race odds have a real floor under them even in a state that leans Democratic at the federal level.
The Bettor's Read
NH-01 is the lesson of the cycle so far. A thin book repriced 50 cents off two polls and got the answer wrong, and anyone still holding Shaheen at 29 took the best paying correct ticket of the primary season. The pattern is worth writing down: when a market moves that far, that fast, on that little volume, the move itself is the bet rather than the news behind it.
The Senate and governor primaries were storage fees. Sununu at 97.6 cents returned about two and a half cents on the dollar, Pappas above 95 returned less than a nickel, and Ayotte at 99 returned a penny. One signal is worth keeping: Pappas underperformed his price against a first-time candidate, a small flag ahead of a swing-state race.
Both marquee generals are live, and that is the point of Tuesday. Democrats near 89 percent for a Senate seat the polling calls a toss-up is the widest market-versus-polls gap on the board, and Shaheen against DiLorenzo starts as a real contest. These numbers will move as the matchups settle, so refresh before you act. For the rest of the November map, start with the full election odds board.
