- Kalshi gives Gov. Josh Shapiro a 93% chance of winning reelection over Republican Stacy Garrity, with Cook Political Report rating the race “solid Democrat.”
- Four Pennsylvania House seats — PA-1 (Brian Fitzpatrick), PA-7 (Ryan Mackenzie), PA-8 (Rob Bresnahan), and PA-10 (Scott Perry) — are among the most competitive in the country and could help decide control of Congress.
- Kalshi lists PA-7 and PA-10 among its most competitive House general election markets, with Democrats favored in both; PA-8 tilts Republican and PA-1 is likely Republican.
- Tuesday’s Democratic primaries in those four districts will set the nominees who will face each Republican incumbent in November.
- Pennsylvania carries more election odds weight than any other state in the 2026 House battle — no other state has four seats simultaneously rated as competitive battlegrounds.
HARRISBURG, Pa. — Pennsylvania holds its primary Tuesday, and the results will matter far beyond the state. With Gov. Josh Shapiro cruising toward reelection and four congressional seats in genuine play, no state carries more weight in the 2026 midterm calculus.
Governor: Shapiro Is a Heavy Favorite
Shapiro, 53, is running for a second term unopposed in the Democratic primary. Kalshi gives him a 93% chance of winning the general election in November against Republican Stacy Garrity.
Shapiro won his first term in 2022 by 15 points over state Sen. Doug Mastriano. Cook Political Report moved the 2026 race from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat” in March, citing his 60% approval rating, large cash advantage, and consistent polling lead.
Garrity, the state treasurer, is unopposed in the Republican primary and has Trump’s endorsement. She is viewed as a stronger candidate than recent GOP nominees, having twice won statewide, but multiple polls show her trailing by 18 to 22 points.
Four House Seats That Could Decide the Majority
Democrats have targeted four Pennsylvania congressional districts held by Republicans as their best pickup opportunities nationwide. All four Republican incumbents are running unopposed in Tuesday’s primary.
The four seats are PA-1 (Bucks County), PA-7 (Lehigh Valley), PA-8 (Scranton area), and PA-10 (Harrisburg/York). US betting sites with 2026 election odds list PA-7 and PA-10 among its most competitive House general election markets, with Democrats favored in both.
PA-7: Mackenzie in the Lehigh Valley
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie flipped this seat in 2024, unseating three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild.
Kalshi has Democrats favored in PA-7 heading into November. On the Democratic side, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has backed Bob Brooks, a Bethlehem firefighter and union president.
Gov. Shapiro has endorsed Brooks in the primary. The combined fundraising across the Democratic field exceeded $1.5 million in a recent quarter, reflecting how seriously both parties are treating this contest.
PA-10: Perry Under Pressure in the Harrisburg Area
Rep. Scott Perry, a Trump ally and former Freedom Caucus chair, holds a seat centered on the Harrisburg and York areas.
Kalshi has Democrats favored to flip PA-10 in November.
The Democratic nominee will be Janelle Stelson, who is a former TV news anchor. She ran against Perry in 2024 and lost by about 3 points. Shapiro has endorsed her again in this cycle.
PA-8: Bresnahan and the Stock-Trade Problem
Rep. Rob Bresnahan flipped this Scranton-area seat in 2024, defeating Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright by less than 2 points.
Pennsylvania election odds sites rate PA-8 as tilting Republican — a smaller Democratic edge than in PA-7 or PA-10.
Bresnahan has faced criticism over reports that he made more than 600 stock trades since taking office.
Paige Cognetti, the Mayor of Scranton, is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination and carries Shapiro’s endorsement.
PA-1: Fitzpatrick Holds the Hardest Seat to Flip
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick represents Bucks County in PA-1 and is one of the most moderate Republicans in Congress.
Kalshi rates PA-1 as likely Republican — the largest incumbent advantage of the four districts.
His Democratic primary field includes Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, who carries Shapiro’s endorsement, and former congressional aide Lucia Simonelli.
The Bottom Line
Pennsylvania is carrying more midterm weight in 2026 than any other state. Shapiro’s wide reelection margin is settled; the real action is in those four House seats.
No other state has four congressional seats simultaneously rated as battlegrounds by Kalshi. For anyone tracking how House control breaks in November, Pennsylvania is the state to watch.
