- Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina are voting today. Polls close as early as 7 p.m. Eastern in Maine and South Carolina and as late as 10 p.m. Eastern in Nevada.
- Kalshi’s most confident primary calls today are Sen. Lindsey Graham at 96% to win the South Carolina Republican Senate primary and Rep. Julie Fedorchak at 99% to win the North Dakota House primary.
- The South Carolina governor’s race is the day’s wildest primary, with Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette favored at 64% but five candidates polling within 12 points of each other.
- Maine’s Democratic Senate primary is the most consequential. Graham Platner sits at 65% on Kalshi to win the nomination that will take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins in what is already one of the most-watched Senate general elections of 2026.
- Maine’s ranked-choice voting means some races may not produce a winner tonight. The election odds below reflect what Kalshi traders believe heading into Tuesday’s vote.
AUGUSTA, Maine - Four states are voting today. The races stretch from the coast of Maine to the deserts of Nevada, and they cover open seats, vulnerable incumbents, and a Senate primary that could determine control of the chamber.
Here are the 10 best bets on today’s primary ballot, ranked by the certainty of the election odds and the importance of the result.
1. Julie Fedorchak Wins the ND-AL GOP Primary — 99% on Kalshi
Rep. Julie Fedorchak is running for a second term in North Dakota’s at-large House seat. Her only primary challenger, Alex Balazs, raised just $10,854 compared to Fedorchak’s $1.38 million in total fundraising.
North Dakota election odds price her at 99% to win the Republican primary. This is the safest primary bet of the day. The general election will not be competitive either.
2. Lindsey Graham Wins the SC GOP Senate Primary — 96% on Kalshi
Sen. Lindsey Graham is seeking a fifth term and sits at 96% on Kalshi to win the Republican primary. He faces five challengers, but none has registered meaningfully in polls or markets.
His most notable challenger is Paul Dans, a former Trump administration official who co-architected Project 2025. Despite that profile, Dans has not gained traction against Graham’s incumbency and fundraising advantage.
3. Joe Lombardo Wins the NV GOP Governor Primary — Near-Certain
Gov. Joe Lombardo faces only nominal opposition in the Nevada Republican primary and is expected to advance easily. His challengers — salon owner Irina Hansen and hip-hop artist Matthew Winterhawk — have not campaigned or fundraised seriously.
The real Nevada race is the November general election, where Lombardo will likely face Attorney General Aaron Ford in the most competitive governor’s contest in the country.
4. Aaron Ford Wins the NV Democratic Governor Primary — Heavy Favorite
Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford is the heavy favorite in the Nevada Democratic primary. His main opponent is Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill, who has not closed the polling or fundraising gap.
Ford has prosecuted high-profile cases against the Trump administration and positioned himself as the most credentialed Democratic candidate in the field. His general election matchup against Lombardo is what Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and election odds in Nevada all treat as a toss-up.
5. Paul LePage Wins the ME-2 GOP Primary — Unopposed
Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage is running unopposed in the Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District. The seat opened after Rep. Jared Golden decided not to seek reelection.
LePage won Trump’s endorsement and cleared the field. He advances to November automatically and will face whichever Democrat wins today’s primary.
6. Graham Platner Wins the ME Democratic Senate Primary — 65% on Kalshi
Election odds in Maine give oyster farmer and former Marine Graham Platner a 65% chance of winning the state’s Democratic Senate primary.
Because Maine uses ranked-choice voting, a winner may not be known tonight. Platner has led in polling throughout the race, but second-preference allocations could alter the result if no candidate clears 50%.
7. Pamela Evette Wins the SC GOP Governor Primary — 64% on Kalshi
Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette is the frontrunner with election odds in South Carolina at 64%, boosted by Trump’s endorsement in late May.
But the latest polls show the race within 12 percentage points across five candidates, making a June 23 runoff a very real possibility.
With 23% of voters undecided in the most recent poll, tonight’s result is the day’s most genuinely unpredictable top-of-ticket outcome.
8. Nirav Shah Wins the ME Democratic Governor Primary — 51% on Kalshi
Former Maine CDC Director Nirav Shah is priced at 51% on Kalshi to win the Democratic governor primary. Former State Senate President Troy Jackson is his closest rival at 26%.
Like the Senate race, this contest will use ranked-choice voting. Bellows, Pingree, and businessman Angus King III round out the five-way field.
9. Joe Baldacci Wins the ME-2 Democratic Primary — 52% on Kalshi
State Sen. Joe Baldacci of Bangor is the slight favorite based on House of Representatives election odds in the ME-2 Democratic primary.
The winner will face LePage in the general election. ME-2 is deep Trump country, but the district has repeatedly produced close finishes in recent cycles.
10. SC-1 Stays Republican in the November General — Heavy GOP Favorite
South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is open after Nancy Mace left to run for governor. Several Republicans are competing in today’s primary for the right to run in the Lowcountry district.
Democrats have DCCC support in the race, but Kalshi and Polymarket both treat the seat as a likely Republican hold in November.
This is not a toss-up — it’s a market that reflects strong but not airtight GOP control.
What to Watch Tonight
The cleanest results will come from South Carolina and North Dakota, where ranked-choice voting does not apply.
Maine’s ranked-choice races — particularly the governor and Senate primaries — may not produce final results for days. Nevada closes at 10 p.m. Eastern and may also run into the early morning hours.
For bettors tracking election odds by state, the South Carolina governor’s race is the most volatile market of the day.
If no one breaks away from the five-way pack by late evening, set a reminder for June 23.
Today’s primaries are June 9, 2026. South Carolina runoffs, if needed, are June 23. All general elections are November 3, 2026.
