2026 Election Tracker
Alabama Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Live 2026 Alabama election odds for the open governor race, the open Senate seat Tommy Tuberville left to run for governor, and the redrawn House map.
| Electoral votes | 9 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 65% / Harris 34% (R+22 margin) |
| Current governor | Kay Ivey (R), term-limited |
| U.S. senators | Tommy Tuberville (R, running for governor; seat open), Katie Britt (R, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), U.S. Senate (open), all 7 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+15 |
Alabama held its primary on May 19, 2026. Sen. Tommy Tuberville won the Republican primary for governor and will face former U.S. Sen. Doug Jones in November, a rematch of their 2020 Senate race, which Tuberville won by 20 points. The Senate primary, however, did not produce a winner: Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore finished first at 40 percent but failed to clear 50 percent, sending him to a June 16 runoff against former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson. State Attorney General Steve Marshall finished third and conceded. The House situation remains complicated. On May 12, the U.S. Supreme Court vacated the court-ordered congressional map Alabama had used since 2023, allowing the state to revert to the map its Republican-controlled legislature drew. Gov. Kay Ivey called a special primary election for August 11 in the four affected districts (AL-1, AL-2, AL-6, AL-7), so only AL-3, AL-4, and AL-5 held primaries on May 19. Democrat Rep. Shomari Figures, who won the previous AL-2, has lost his district under the new lines. For 2028 presidential markets and balance-of-power coverage that doesn't appear on this page, ElectionOdds.com covers the national picture.
Is Alabama a Red State or a Blue State?
Alabama is one of the reddest states in the country. Republicans have won every Alabama presidential election since 1980, every U.S. Senate race except one (Doug Jones's 2017 special election win against Roy Moore), and every gubernatorial race since 2002. Cook PVI rates Alabama R+15, meaning the state votes about 15 points more Republican than the country as a whole. In 2024, Trump carried Alabama by 22 points, one of his five largest state margins. On our red states vs. blue states map, Alabama is shaded among the deepest red on the board.
The shift to red was not always this stark. Alabama was a one-party Democratic state from the end of Reconstruction through the 1960s, when the national Democratic Party's embrace of civil rights pushed white Southern voters toward the Republican Party. The realignment was gradual at the presidential level but accelerated downballot through the 1980s and 1990s. The Alabama Legislature did not flip to Republican control until 2010. By the 2014 cycle, every statewide elected office was held by a Republican.
The state's voting pattern reflects its demographics and geography. Alabama is roughly 65% white and 27% Black, with the Black population concentrated in the Black Belt running across the center of the state and in the major cities of Birmingham, Montgomery, and Mobile. White voters in Alabama back Republicans by margins exceeding 80% in recent cycles. Black voters back Democrats by similar margins. The math has not been close at the statewide level in two decades.
There are pockets of Democratic strength. The 7th Congressional District, anchored in Birmingham and the Black Belt, has been held by a Democrat since 1992 and is the only Alabama district that consistently elects a Democratic representative. Jefferson County (Birmingham), Madison County (Huntsville), and Montgomery County have all voted for Democratic presidential candidates in recent cycles. But these blue pockets are not large enough to overcome the deep Republican margins in the rest of the state.
Will Alabama become competitive? Not in the near term. Democrats have not won an Alabama gubernatorial race since 1998 or a regular U.S. Senate election since 1990. Demographic change is slow, and the state's white voters have moved further right under Trump rather than back toward the center. The most realistic path to Democratic competitiveness in Alabama runs through a generational shift in turnout among Black voters and younger white voters, neither of which is on a near-term timeline. For the foreseeable future, Alabama remains one of the most reliably Republican states in the country. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Alabama Governor Betting Odds
Kay Ivey ascended to the office in 2017 when Robert Bentley resigned, then won full terms in 2018 (by 19 points) and 2022 (by 35). She is the longest-serving female governor in U.S. history at the end of her second full term. With term limits applying, the 2026 governor's race is wide open.
Tommy Tuberville, the sitting U.S. senator and former Auburn football coach, won the Republican primary on May 19 with Trump's endorsement. He vacated the Senate seat (creating the open Senate race below) to run for governor. Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth had considered running himself but endorsed Tuberville instead. The other Republican primary candidates were Ken McFeeters (insurance agent, 2024 House candidate) and Will Santivasci (event center operations manager). McFeeters had formally challenged Tuberville's Alabama residency in January 2026, alleging Tuberville primarily resides at a beach house in Walton County, Florida, but the Alabama Republican Party's steering committee rejected the challenge and the residency question never gained meaningful traction with voters.
The Democratic primary was won by former U.S. Sen. Doug Jones, who beat Roy Moore in the 2017 special election and lost to Tuberville in the 2020 Senate race by 20 points. With both Jones and Tuberville now their parties' nominees, the November general election is a 2020 Senate rematch in a gubernatorial frame. Democrats have not won an Alabama governor's race since 1998, and Trump carried the state by 30 points in 2024, making Jones a substantial underdog despite his name recognition. Cook rates the race Solid Republican. See the odds for all Governor races here.
Governor
Alabama Governor Election History
Alabama's governorship has been Republican for over two decades. Democrat Don Siegelman won in 1998 but lost a razor-thin 2002 race to Republican Bob Riley by about 3,000 votes, and Siegelman remains the last Democrat elected governor of the state. Riley served two terms, Robert Bentley won in 2010 and 2014 before resigning in 2017, and Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey succeeded him and won full terms in 2018 and 2022.
Ivey, now the longest-serving female governor in U.S. history, is term-limited, opening the 2026 race. Sitting Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville won the Republican primary with Trump's endorsement and faces Democrat Doug Jones in November, a rematch of their 2020 Senate race. With no Democrat having won the office since 1998 and Trump carrying the state by 30 points, Cook rates the contest Solid Republican.
Alabama Senate Betting Odds
Alabama's first open Class II Senate seat since 1996, opened by Tuberville's gubernatorial bid, drew seven Republicans into the May 19 primary. Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore (AL-1) led the field with about 40 percent but did not clear 50 percent, sending him to a June 16 runoff against former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, who finished second at 26 percent. State AG Steve Marshall finished third at 24.5 percent and conceded the next day. The other candidates, businessman Rodney Walker, former Trump administration staffer Morgan Murphy, cardiac surgeon Dale Deas Jr., and Navy veteran Seth Burton, split the remaining vote.
The Trump-Moore result is being read as a partial win for the president and a partial setback. Trump endorsed Moore in January and held a tele-rally for him on the eve of the primary, but couldn't push him past the 50 percent threshold. Trump's record on Alabama Senate endorsements remains mixed, his pick lost in 2017 (Luther Strange to Roy Moore), won in 2020 (Tuberville), and shifted late in 2022 (he withdrew his Mo Brooks endorsement and backed Katie Britt, who won). The Moore-Hudson runoff will close out that history one way or the other on June 16.
The Democratic primary also went to a June 16 runoff between Dakarai Larriett, a Birmingham business consultant, and Everett Wess, a Birmingham attorney. The winner faces the Republican nominee in November in a state Trump carried by 30 points. Cook rates Solid Republican. Alabama has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Doug Jones's 2017 special election win, the last regular-election Senate Democrat was Howell Heflin in 1990. See more Senate election odds.
U.S. Senate
Alabama U.S. Senate Election History
Alabama's Senate seats have been Republican strongholds, with one stunning interruption: Democrat Doug Jones won a 2017 special election against scandal-plagued Republican Roy Moore, then lost the seat to Tommy Tuberville by 20 points in 2020. Apart from that special election, the last regular-election Democratic senator was Howell Heflin in 1990.
Tuberville's decision to run for governor opened the seat for 2026, the first open Class II seat since 1996, drawing seven Republicans. Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore led the May primary but fell short of a majority, forcing a June 16 runoff against Jared Hudson, while the Democratic field also headed to a runoff. In a state Trump won by 30 points, Cook rates the general election Solid Republican.
Alabama House Betting Odds
The Alabama House delegation just shifted in real time. As recently as yesterday afternoon, the state was operating under a federal court-ordered congressional map drawn in 2023, which created a second majority-Black district (AL-2) and which Democrat Shomari Figures won in 2024, the seat that made Alabama's delegation 5R-2D for the first time in modern memory.
Today, May 12, 2026: The U.S. Supreme Court vacated the court-ordered map, citing the Louisiana v. Callais ruling from April 29 that gutted Voting Rights Act protections against racial gerrymandering. Within hours, Governor Ivey announced a special primary election for August 11, 2026 in the four affected districts: AL-1, AL-2, AL-6, and AL-7. The state had passed enabling legislation during a special session last week (May 5-8) anticipating exactly this outcome. There will be no runoff in the special primary. The general election proceeds on November 3 with all other races.
Effect on the delegation: Figures's AL-2 district returns to the heavily Republican lines drawn by the state legislature. He is widely expected to lose. The May 19 primary proceeds as normal for all other races, Senate, governor, statewide offices, and U.S. House in the three unaffected districts (AL-3, AL-4, AL-5). Qualifying for the special primary opens May 20 and closes May 22. Independents have until August 11 to qualify. Alabama becomes the second state, after Tennessee on May 8, to enact a post-Callais mid-decade redistricting that flips a Democratic seat. Louisiana and South Carolina are next in the queue. See more of the Election odds for the house of representatives.
U.S. House districts
7 marketsAlabama U.S. House Election History
Alabama's House delegation was 6-1 Republican for most of the 2010s, the lone Democratic seat the Birmingham-and-Black-Belt 7th, held by a Democrat since 1992. Voting Rights Act litigation reshaped it: after the Supreme Court's 2023 Allen v. Milligan ruling, a court ordered a second majority-Black district, and Democrat Shomari Figures won the new AL-2 in 2024, making the delegation 5-2.
That reversed almost overnight. The Supreme Court's April 2026 Callais ruling gutted the protections behind that order, and on May 12 the Court vacated the court-drawn map, letting Alabama revert to the legislature's Republican-friendly lines. Figures's AL-2 snapped back to GOP-leaning territory and he is expected to lose, returning the delegation toward 6-1. Governor Ivey called special August primaries in the four redrawn districts, making Alabama the second state after Tennessee to flip a Democratic seat through post-Callais redistricting.
Alabama Presidential Election Betting Odds
Trump won Alabama by 22 points in 2024, his fifth-largest state margin nationally. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980, with the exception of nothing, every cycle, every time, since Reagan. Cook PVI rates the state R+15. For 2028, Alabama's 9 electoral votes are not in play.
Sen. Katie Britt, in her first term and frequently mentioned in long-shot 2028 Republican vice presidential markets, is the only Alabama politician with current national profile. No 2028 candidate is leaning on Alabama as a meaningful electoral target.
Alabama Presidential Election History
Alabama was a one-party Democratic state from Reconstruction through the 1960s, but the national party's embrace of civil rights drove a realignment that made it one of the most Republican states in the country. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980, without exception, often by 20-plus points.
Trump carried Alabama by about 22 points in 2024, among his five largest state margins, and Cook PVI rates it R+15. The 9 electoral votes are never contested, and for 2028 no forecast treats Alabama as anything but safely Republican. Its national profile rests on figures like first-term Senator Katie Britt, occasionally floated in vice-presidential speculation, rather than on its general-election competitiveness.
Alabama Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Alabama politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Alabama Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Alabama's races, now past the May 19 primary. In the governor's race, Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville faces Democrat Doug Jones in a rematch of their 2020 Senate contest. In the open Senate race, Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore heads to a June 16 runoff against Jared Hudson.
Alabama rarely produces competitive general-election polling given its deep-red lean, so the live numbers are in the June 16 Republican Senate runoff and the August 11 special House primaries triggered by the redrawn map. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Alabama governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) | April 29–30, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Ken McFeeters 7% · Will Santivasci 3% · Tommy Tuberville 65% · Undecided 25% |
| Cygnal (R) | November 12–13, 2025 | 605 (LV) | Tommy Tuberville (R) 53% · Doug Jones (D) 34% · Undecided 13% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | December 2024 | – (RV) | Will Ainsworth 34% · Rick Pate 5% · Undecided 61% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | October 13–14, 2025 | 1,050 (RV) | Ken McFeeters 4% · Tommy Tuberville 63% · Other 11% · Undecided 22% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 14 minutes ago.
Alabama U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R) | June 3–4, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Jared Hudson 37% · Barry Moore 46% · Undecided 17% |
| Strategy Management | May 29 – June 4, 2026 | 1,300 (LV) | Jared Hudson 42% · Barry Moore 37% · Undecided 20% |
| The Alabama Poll | May 28, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Jared Hudson 49% · Barry Moore 39% · Undecided 12% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | May 21–22, 2026 | 722 (LV) | Jared Hudson 41% · Barry Moore 40% · Undecided 19% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R) | May 17–18, 2026 | 518 (LV) | Jared Hudson 36% · Barry Moore 53% · Undecided 11% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | May 15–17, 2026 | 680 (LV) | Jared Hudson 36% · Steve Marshall 14% · Barry Moore 27% · Morgan Murphy 0% · Rodney Walker 1% · Other 5% · Undecided 18% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Alabama under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 14 minutes ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Alabama a red state or a blue state?
Alabama is one of the reddest states in the country. Republicans have won every presidential election there since 1980 and every governor's race since 2002, Trump carried it by 22 points in 2024, and Cook PVI rates it R+15.
Who is running for Alabama governor in 2026?
With Kay Ivey term-limited, Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville won the May 19 primary and faces Democrat Doug Jones in November, a rematch of their 2020 Senate race, which Tuberville won by 20 points. Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Why is there an open Senate race in Alabama?
Tommy Tuberville vacated his seat to run for governor, opening the first Class II Senate seat since 1996. Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore led the May 19 primary but fell short of a majority, forcing a June 16 runoff against Jared Hudson.
What happened to Alabama's House map?
On May 12, 2026 the Supreme Court vacated the court-ordered map after its April Callais ruling, letting Alabama revert to the legislature's lines. Democrat Shomari Figures's AL-2 returns to Republican-leaning territory and he is expected to lose, with special primaries set for August 11 in the four redrawn districts.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.