Alabama Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Today, May 12, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court vacated the court-ordered congressional map that Alabama has used since 2023, allowing the state to revert to the map its Republican-controlled legislature drew. Two hours later, Governor Kay Ivey called a special primary election for August 11 in the four affected districts. The state's Democratic incumbent in AL-2, Rep. Shomari Figures, just lost his district. Beyond redistricting, the Alabama ballot also has an open governor's race (Ivey term-limited) and an open U.S. Senate seat (Tommy Tuberville is leaving the Senate to run for governor). The state's regular primary is May 19, exactly one week from now. The political map that Alabama Republicans were working with a week ago has fundamentally changed. For 2028 presidential markets and balance-of-power coverage that doesn't appear on this page, the homepage covers the national picture.

Alabama governor betting odds

Kay Ivey ascended to the office in 2017 when Robert Bentley resigned, then won full terms in 2018 (by 19 points) and 2022 (by 35). She is the longest-serving female governor in U.S. history at the end of her second full term. With term limits applying, the 2026 governor's race is wide open.

Tommy Tuberville, the sitting U.S. senator and former Auburn football coach, is the heavy Republican primary frontrunner. He vacated the Senate seat (creating the open Senate race below) and brought Trump's de facto support to the gubernatorial side. Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth considered running himself but endorsed Tuberville instead. The other Republican candidates: Ken McFeeters (insurance agent, 2024 House candidate) and Will Santivasci (event center operations manager). Ken McFeeters formally challenged Tuberville's Alabama residency on January 27, 2026, alleging Tuberville primarily resides at a beach house in Walton County, Florida; the Alabama Republican Party's 21-member steering committee rejected the challenge on February 2.

The Democratic primary is more notable than usual for Alabama. Former U.S. Senator Doug Jones — who beat Roy Moore in 2017's special election and lost to Tuberville in 2020 by 20 points — is running. If both Jones and Tuberville win their primaries, the November general election will be a 2020 Senate rematch in a gubernatorial frame. Also in the Dem field: 2022 nominee Yolanda Flowers, former state Rep. Nathan Mathis, and others. Democrats have not won an Alabama governor's race since 1998. Primary May 19, 2026, runoff June 16 if needed.

Alabama presidential election betting odds

Trump won Alabama by 22 points in 2024, his fifth-largest state margin nationally. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980, with the exception of nothing — every cycle, every time, since Reagan. Cook PVI rates the state R+15.

For 2028, Alabama's 9 electoral votes are not in play. Sen. Katie Britt, in her first term and frequently mentioned in long-shot 2028 Republican vice presidential markets, is the only Alabama politician with current national profile. No 2028 candidate is leaning on Alabama as a meaningful electoral target.

Alabama senate betting odds

Alabama's first open Class II Senate seat since 1996, opened by Tuberville's gubernatorial bid, has drawn six Republicans into the May 19 primary. Three are considered serious contenders:

AG Steve Marshall is the establishment lane — he's been Attorney General since 2017 and has led most of Alabama's recent legal fights, including the current redistricting effort he filed with the U.S. Supreme Court in early May. U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (AL-1, Mobile-area) earned Trump's endorsement on January 17, 2026, instantly making him the favorite for the Republican nomination. Jared Hudson is a former Navy SEAL and tactical training company founder running as the outsider option.

Trump's record of Alabama Senate endorsements is mixed — his pick lost in 2017 (Strange to Roy Moore), won in 2020 (Tuberville), and shifted late in 2022 (he withdrew his Mo Brooks endorsement and backed Katie Britt, who won). His Moore endorsement could decide a primary in which Marshall has more traditional infrastructure but Moore has the MAGA wing.

The Democratic nominee will likely be Dakarai Larriett, a business consultant. Alabama has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Doug Jones's 2017 special election win — the last regular-election Senate Democrat was Howell Heflin in 1990. Cook rates Solid Republican. Primary May 19; runoff June 16 if needed.

Alabama house betting odds

The Alabama House delegation just shifted in real time. As recently as yesterday afternoon, the state was operating under a federal court-ordered congressional map drawn in 2023, which created a second majority-Black district (AL-2) and which Democrat Shomari Figures won in 2024 — the seat that made Alabama's delegation 5R-2D for the first time in modern memory.

Today, May 12, 2026: The U.S. Supreme Court vacated the court-ordered map, citing the Louisiana v. Callais ruling from April 29 that gutted Voting Rights Act protections against racial gerrymandering. Within hours, Governor Ivey announced a special primary election for August 11, 2026 in the four affected districts: AL-1, AL-2, AL-6, and AL-7. The state had passed enabling legislation during a special session last week (May 5-8) anticipating exactly this outcome. There will be no runoff in the special primary. The general election proceeds on November 3 with all other races.

Effect on the delegation: Figures's AL-2 district returns to the heavily Republican lines drawn by the state legislature. He is widely expected to lose. The May 19 primary proceeds as normal for all other races — Senate, governor, statewide offices, and U.S. House in the three unaffected districts (AL-3, AL-4, AL-5). Qualifying for the special primary opens May 20 and closes May 22. Independents have until August 11 to qualify.

Alabama becomes the second state, after Tennessee on May 8, to enact a post-Callais mid-decade redistricting that flips a Democratic seat. Louisiana and South Carolina are next in the queue.