2026 Election Tracker
Alaska Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Alaska 2026 election odds for the Peltola-Sullivan Senate race, the open governor seat after Dunleavy, and ranked-choice voting outcomes, plus state history.
| Electoral votes | 3 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 55% / Harris 41% (R+13 margin) |
| Current governor | Mike Dunleavy (R), term-limited |
| U.S. senators | Lisa Murkowski (R, next 2028), Dan Sullivan (R, on 2026 ballot) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), U.S. Senate, 1 at-large U.S. House seat |
| Cook PVI | R+8 |
Alaska in 2026 has two genuinely interesting races and an electoral system that complicates predicting either of them. Mary Peltola, the former Democratic U.S. Representative who won Alaska's at-large House seat in a 2022 special election (becoming the first Alaska Native ever elected to Congress) and then lost it in 2024 to Republican Nick Begich III, is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Her January 2026 launch raised $8.9 million in the first quarter, a record for any Alaska Senate campaign. The open governor's race (Mike Dunleavy is term-limited) has a crowded Republican field plus three serious Democrats. Lisa Murkowski endorsed Sullivan over Peltola in this race, breaking from her past endorsements of Peltola for House. The state's nonpartisan blanket primary sends the top four to a ranked-choice general election. Alaska is the kind of state where you can't read the math by reading the partisan splits. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Alaska a Red State or a Blue State?
Alaska is a red state with a libertarian and independent streak that occasionally produces surprising results. Trump carried Alaska by 13.3 points in 2024, by 10 in 2020, and by 14.7 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968. Cook PVI rates Alaska R+8. Alaska's Republican identity is rooted in its frontier political culture, its energy economy, and its strong libertarian tendencies. But the state has an unusually high share of independent voters and a tradition of supporting moderate Republicans and the occasional independent.
The downballot picture is mostly Republican but with notable exceptions. Republican Mike Dunleavy holds the governorship and is term-limited in January 2027. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan), although Murkowski is one of the most independent Republicans in the Senate and has been at odds with the Trump administration on many votes. Democrat Mary Peltola held the state's lone U.S. House seat from 2022 to 2025 after winning two special elections and a general election, but lost her 2024 reelection to Republican Nick Begich III by 2.6 points. Republicans hold both chambers of the state legislature.
Alaska's voting pattern reflects its unique demographic and geographic profile. The state has only 740,000 residents spread across an area more than twice the size of Texas. Anchorage Borough, which contains roughly 40% of the state's population, is competitive at the federal level but tilts Republican. Juneau Borough (the state capital) and Sitka are the most Democratic-leaning. The Bush, the term used for the rural areas of Alaska connected to the road system, votes Republican. Alaska's Native population, roughly 16%, votes Democratic and is concentrated in rural villages.
The state's recent ranked-choice voting system (used since 2022) has produced some unusual outcomes by allowing for moderate Republicans and independents to compete more effectively. The state's politics have been shaped by its oil-dependent economy, its strong rural-urban divide, the unique role of Native communities in state politics, and the long career of Lisa Murkowski. Murkowski's 2010 write-in win after losing the Republican primary remains one of the most remarkable victories in modern U.S. Senate history. The state's ranked-choice voting system has been a target of Republican efforts to repeal, with two ballot measures already failing to do so. Alaska has 3 electoral votes through 2030, the minimum.
Will Alaska become competitive? Maybe at the U.S. House level, where Peltola's 2022-2024 run showed that a strong Democratic candidate can win in a Republican-leaning state under favorable conditions. At the presidential level, the state will continue to vote Republican by margins around 10-15 points. The 2026 cycle includes a competitive Anchorage-area U.S. House race that will test whether Begich can hold the seat. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Alaska Governor Betting Odds
Dunleavy is term-limited under Alaska's two-consecutive-term constitutional rule. The open seat has attracted a sprawling field. Republican primary (August 18, 2026 nonpartisan blanket primary), top four advance to ranked-choice general: Nancy Dahlstrom, current Lieutenant Governor, who lost the 2024 House race to Begich; Dave Bronson, former Anchorage mayor (2021-2024); Edna DeVries, Matanuska-Susitna Borough mayor; Shelley Hughes, former state senator; Matt Heilala, state Medical Board member; Click Bishop, former state senator, running with Greta Schuerch as Independent.
Democratic primary field: Tom Begich, former state Senate Minority Leader (2019-2023), uncle of U.S. Rep. Nick Begich III; Matt Claman, state senator; Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, former state representative.
The variable: Mary Peltola's decision. She had been considering both Senate and gubernatorial runs and chose Senate. Some polling suggested she would have been the strongest Democratic candidate for governor; her decision to run for Senate leaves the open governor's race more competitive in the Republican primary than the general election. Senator Lisa Murkowski has not entirely ruled out a gubernatorial run, but her favorability cratered in 2025 after voting for the Big Beautiful Bill (over 20-point drop in net favorability per Data for Progress). Alaska's ranked-choice voting makes general election predictions difficult. Cook rates Likely Republican. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Alaska Governor Election History
Alaska's governorship has leaned Republican but reflects the state's independent streak. Democrat Tony Knowles served two terms through 2002 and remains the last Democrat to hold the office. He was followed by Republicans Frank Murkowski, Sarah Palin, and Sean Parnell, then independent Bill Walker from 2014 to 2018, and Republican Mike Dunleavy since.
Dunleavy is now term-limited, opening a 2026 race conducted under Alaska's nonpartisan blanket primary and ranked-choice general. A sprawling Republican field, led by figures like Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, competes alongside three serious Democrats, and Mary Peltola's choice to run for Senate rather than governor left the GOP primary more decisive than the general. Cook rates the race Likely Republican.
Alaska Senate Betting Odds
Dan Sullivan, in the Senate since 2015, is seeking a third term. He defeated Mark Begich (no relation to current Rep. Nick Begich III) in 2014 by 2 points and won re-election in 2020 by 13 points. Sullivan is a Trump ally on Armed Services and Environment.
Mary Peltola entered the race January 12, 2026. The Democratic challenger profile: former at-large U.S. Representative (2022-2024), first Alaska Native ever in Congress, replaced longtime Republican Don Young after his 2022 death, lost the seat in 2024 to Nick Begich III by 2 points. Her family raised in Bethel on the Kuskokwim River; subsistence fishing tradition is central to her political identity. She has joined a lobbying firm post-Congress and is running on a "Family, Fish, and Freedom" platform.
Q1 2026 fundraising: Peltola raised $8.9 million, a record for any Alaska Senate campaign. Sullivan reported $2.1 million. Murkowski endorsement shift: Lisa Murkowski endorsed Peltola in her 2022 special election, 2022 general, and 2024 House races. For 2026, Murkowski endorsed Sullivan, citing her preference for keeping a Republican Senate majority and her 12-year working relationship with Sullivan. Public Policy Polling (early 2026): Sullivan 46%, Peltola 45% on first-choice voting. The ranked-choice voting system means independent and minor-party candidates' rankings will matter for the final result. Cook rates Lean Republican but acknowledges genuine competitiveness. Democrats target Alaska Senate as one of four possible flips. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Alaska U.S. Senate Election History
Alaska's Senate seats have been Republican-held for years but reflect the state's maverick streak. Lisa Murkowski, appointed in 2002, famously won a 2010 write-in campaign after losing her primary, one of the most remarkable Senate victories in modern history, and routinely breaks with her party. Dan Sullivan won the other seat in 2014, narrowly defeating Democrat Mark Begich.
Sullivan's 2026 bid for a third term is unexpectedly competitive: former Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native in Congress, entered the race and posted a record $8.9 million first quarter. Early polling shows a near tie on first-choice votes, and under ranked-choice the lower preferences will matter. Cook rates the race Lean Republican but genuinely competitive.
Alaska House Betting Odds
Nick Begich III holds the seat that the late Don Young occupied for 49 years before his 2022 death. Begich (R), elected 2024 by 2 points over Peltola, is running for a second term. He is a businessman and great-nephew of former U.S. Sen. Mike Gravel; his uncle Tom Begich is running for governor in 2026.
The Democratic challenger field includes private school teacher Matthew "Bronco" Williams (running as an independent). The general election will be ranked-choice. With Peltola moved to the Senate race, Begich is likely safer than he was in 2024, but the seat remains genuinely competitive given Alaska's split electorate. No mid-decade redistricting in Alaska. Nonpartisan primary August 18, 2026. Ranked-choice general election November 3. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
Alaska U.S. House Election History
Alaska's single at-large House seat was held by Republican Don Young for 49 years until his 2022 death. Democrat Mary Peltola won the resulting special election to become the first Alaska Native in Congress and held the seat until 2024, when Republican Nick Begich III defeated her by about 2 points under ranked-choice voting.
Begich is seeking a second term in 2026, and with Peltola running for Senate instead he is considered safer than in 2024, though Alaska's split electorate and ranked-choice system keep the seat genuinely competitive. The state has a single district, so there is no redistricting to contest.
Alaska Presidential Election Betting Odds
The last Alaska presidential vote that went Democratic was for Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, 10 points in 2020, and 15 points in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968. Cook PVI rates Alaska R+8. The 3 electoral votes are safe Republican for 2028.
Alaska's political identity is distinct from other Republican states, over half of registered voters are unaffiliated with either major party, and both chambers of the state legislature have bipartisan ruling coalitions. Murkowski's continued tenure as a Republican who routinely breaks with the party is the most prominent expression of that identity.
Alaska Presidential Election History
Alaska has voted Republican in every presidential election since statehood except for Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide, a streak rooted in its frontier and energy-economy culture. Yet its margins are smaller than other deep-red states, and more than half its voters are unaffiliated with either party.
Trump carried it by 10 to 15 points across his three campaigns, and Cook PVI rates it R+8. Its 3 electoral votes, the minimum, are safely Republican. The state's independent identity shows up downballot, with bipartisan legislative coalitions and Lisa Murkowski's career as a Republican who frequently breaks with her party.
Alaska Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Alaska politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Alaska Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Alaska's races, complicated by a nonpartisan blanket primary and ranked-choice general that make first-choice numbers only part of the story. The marquee race is the Senate contest, where Republican Dan Sullivan faces former Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native in Congress, who posted a record $8.9 million quarter. The open governor's race drew a sprawling field after Mike Dunleavy was term-limited.
Early polling shows Sullivan and Peltola nearly tied on first-choice votes, so the lower-preference rankings of independents and minor candidates could decide it. Democrats count Alaska among their possible Senate flips. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Alaska governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | May 14–17, 2026 | 1,401 (LV) | Tom Begich (D) 21% · Click Bishop (R) 10% · Dave Bronson (R) 11% · Matt Claman (D) 7% · Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 6% · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 8% · Bernadette Wilson (R) 16% · Other 22% |
| Dittman Research | April 27–30, 2026 | 451 (LV) | Tom Begich (D) 21% · Click Bishop (R) 6% · Dave Bronson (R) 7% · Matt Claman (D) 5% · Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 2% · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 5% · Bernadette Wilson (R) 6% · Other 13% · Undecided 35% |
| Alaska Survey Research | April 16–19, 2026 | 1,612 (LV) | Tom Begich (D) 19% · Click Bishop (R) 9% · Dave Bronson (R) 10% · Bernadette Wilson (R) 14% · Other 48% |
| Alaska Survey Research | April 16–19, 2026 | 1,923 (LV) | Tom Begich (D) 41% · Click Bishop (R) 19% · Dave Bronson (R) 19% · Bernadette Wilson (R) 22% |
| Alaska Survey Research | March 19–22, 2026 | 1,061 (LV) | Tom Begich (D) 19% · Dave Bronson (R) 10% · Matt Claman (D) 10% · Bernadette Wilson (R) 14% · Other 47% |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | February 5–11, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Tom Begich (D) 22% · Click Bishop (R) 6% · Dave Bronson (R) 8% · Matt Claman (D) 6% · Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 5% · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 9% · Bernadette Wilson (R) 14% · Other 8% · Undecided 23% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 2 hours ago.
Alaska U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | June 4–7, 2026 | 1,393 (LV) | Dan Sullivan (R) 44% · Mary Peltola (D) 49% · Other 7% |
| Race to the WH | March 29 – May 27, 2026 | Dan Sullivan (R) 44.8% · Mary Peltola (D) 48.7% · Other/Undecided 7.4% | |
| Alaska Survey Research | May 14–17, 2026 | 1,401 (LV) | Dan Sullivan (R) 44% · Mary Peltola (D) 48% · Other 8% |
| Alaska Survey Research | April 16–19, 2026 | 1,946 (LV) | Dan Sullivan (R) 43% · Mary Peltola (D) 49% · Other 8% |
| Alaska Survey Research | March 19–22, 2026 | 1,283 (LV) | Ann Diener (D) 2% · Fred Grauberger (R) 1% · Richard Grayson (G) 1% · Sid Hill (I) 3% · William Hunt (D) 1% · Christopher Miklos (R) 2% · Mary Peltola (D) 46% · James Ryan (R) 3% · Dan Sullivan (R) 41% |
| Alaska Survey Research | March 19–22, 2026 | 1,590 (LV) | Dan Sullivan (R) 44% · Mary Peltola (D) 49% · Other 7% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 2 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Alaska a red state or a blue state?
Alaska is a red state with a strong libertarian and independent streak. Trump carried it by about 13 points in 2024 and Cook PVI rates it R+8, but more than half of voters are unaffiliated, and the state uses ranked-choice voting that has helped moderates and independents compete.
Why is the Alaska Senate race competitive?
Former Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native in Congress, is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and posted a record $8.9 million first quarter. Early polling shows a near tie on first-choice votes, and under ranked-choice the final result depends on lower preferences. Cook rates it Lean Republican.
Who is running for Alaska governor in 2026?
With Mike Dunleavy term-limited, a sprawling Republican field including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom competes alongside three serious Democrats. Mary Peltola chose to run for Senate rather than governor, leaving the GOP primary more decisive than the general. Cook rates the open race Likely Republican.
How does Alaska's voting system work?
Alaska uses a nonpartisan blanket primary in which the top four finishers, regardless of party, advance to a ranked-choice general election. Used since 2022, it has helped moderates and independents and has survived two Republican repeal attempts.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.