Arizona Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Arizona's governor's race is the single most-watched contest in the state, with Democrat Katie Hobbs defending a seat she won by just 17,000 votes in 2022. The Republican primary became a Trump-versus-Trump story: the president endorsed both Karrin Taylor Robson and Rep. Andy Biggs in April 2025, an unusual double endorsement that put two candidates on parallel tracks. Robson dropped out on February 12, 2026, leaving Biggs and Rep. David Schweikert in a now two-person GOP primary. Neither senator is on the 2026 ballot, but Arizona's 9 House seats include two genuinely competitive races, including Schweikert's now-open seat in AZ-1. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Arizona governor betting odds

Katie Hobbs is running for a second term. Her 2022 margin against Kari Lake was 0.67 points — one of the closest gubernatorial elections in the country that cycle. Trump won Arizona in 2024 by 5.5 points, making Hobbs one of five Democratic governors defending Trump states in 2026 (along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Kansas, and Wisconsin). Hobbs has been endorsed by Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, former Rep. Gabby Giffords, and the Arizona AFL-CIO. She has outraised every Republican gubernatorial candidate for two consecutive quarters.

The Republican primary collapsed into a two-person race when Karrin Taylor Robson, a real estate developer and 2022 GOP runner-up, dropped out on February 12, 2026. Robson cited a desire to avoid "a divisive Republican primary." Trump had endorsed both Robson and Biggs in April 2025 — a rare double endorsement that political operatives read as Trump hedging. Robson's exit leaves Rep. Andy Biggs as the only Trump-endorsed candidate, against Rep. David Schweikert, who has been in Congress since 2011 and is running as the more establishment-oriented candidate.

Polling has been close. Emerson's November 2025 hypothetical matchups showed Hobbs leading Biggs 44-43, leading Robson 43-42, and leading Schweikert 44-39. Cook rates the race Toss-up. Primary July 21, 2026.

First-time lieutenant governor election: Arizona voters approved Prop 131 in 2022, creating a separately-elected lieutenant governor position. The 2026 race is the first time Arizona will elect a lieutenant governor on a joint ticket with the governor.

Arizona presidential election betting odds

Arizona is one of the seven 2024 swing states. Trump won by 5.5 points in 2024, after Biden flipped the state by 0.3 points in 2020 — the first Democratic presidential win in Arizona since 1996. The state's demographic trajectory continues to shift, but its 2024 swing toward Trump (about 5.8 points from Biden's 2020 margin) tracked the national pattern almost exactly.

For 2028, Arizona is among the most important swing states in any presidential calculation. Cook PVI rates it R+2 — the smallest Republican lean among the Sun Belt swing states. Both Sen. Mark Kelly (astronaut, former Navy combat pilot, husband of Gabby Giffords) and Sen. Ruben Gallego (combat veteran of Iraq, son of immigrants) appear in long-shot 2028 Democratic primary markets. Neither has signaled interest. Both face their next re-elections in 2028 and 2030 respectively.

Arizona senate betting odds

Neither Arizona Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Mark Kelly won his first full term in 2022 by 5 points over Blake Masters and is next up in 2028. Ruben Gallego won the 2024 open seat (left by Kyrsten Sinema's departure from politics) by 2 points over Kari Lake and is next up in 2030. Arizona's pair of Democratic senators is the more surprising outcome from a decade of state-level realignment.

Long-range markets are pricing Kelly's 2028 race as competitive given his single-digit 2022 margin. Republicans currently have no obvious A-tier candidate against him.

Arizona house betting odds

Arizona has 9 House seats, currently 6 Republicans to 3 Democrats. The two competitive races for 2026:

AZ-1 (open) — David Schweikert's Scottsdale-anchored district is now open because he's running for governor. This was the closest House race in the country in 2024, with Schweikert holding on by less than a point against Democrat Amish Shah. Without Schweikert as the incumbent, Democrats see this as one of their best pickup opportunities anywhere.

AZ-6 — Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) holds a district that Biden carried in 2020 and Trump narrowly won in 2024. Ciscomani has survived two close re-election fights and faces another expected toss-up.

No mid-decade redistricting in Arizona — the state uses a citizens' redistricting commission. Primary July 21, 2026.