2026 Election Tracker
Arkansas Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Arkansas 2026 election odds for Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders' second term, Tom Cotton's third Senate term against Hallie Shoffner, plus voting history by year.
| Electoral votes | 6 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 64% / Harris 33% (R+31 margin) |
| Current governor | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), seeking second term |
| U.S. senators | Tom Cotton (R, on 2026 ballot), John Boozman (R, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, U.S. Senate, all 4 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+15 |
Arkansas is a state where the political math doesn't really require explanation. Sarah Huckabee Sanders is running for a second term as governor. Tom Cotton is running for a third term in the Senate. Trump won the state by 31 points. Republicans hold all four congressional seats and every statewide office. The Republican primaries already happened on March 3, Cotton won, Sanders was unopposed, and the general election is a formality. The most interesting subplot involves Democratic candidate Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer running on food insecurity in the state with the nation's highest food-insecurity rate. She won the Democratic Senate primary with 78% of the vote and will face Cotton in November as an uphill underdog. Sanders's potential 2028 presidential profile is the long-range political story Arkansas is paying attention to. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Arkansas a Red State or a Blue State?
Arkansas is a deeply red state, transformed from its long Democratic past in just two decades. Trump carried Arkansas by 24.9 points in 2024, by 27.6 in 2020, and by 27 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. Cook PVI rates Arkansas R+15. Arkansas's transformation is among the most dramatic in American politics: Bill Clinton was elected governor of Arkansas five times beginning in 1978 and won his home state in both presidential races. The Arkansas Democratic Party that dominated state politics through the 1990s no longer exists in any meaningful form.
The downballot picture is overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who took office in January 2023 after running unopposed in the 2026 Republican primary. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (John Boozman and Tom Cotton, who defeated two challengers in his 2026 primary), all 4 U.S. House seats, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Arkansas Democrats hold no statewide elected office and have not since 2014. The state's last Democratic U.S. senator (Mark Pryor) lost in 2014, and its last Democratic governor (Mike Beebe) left office in 2015.
Arkansas's voting pattern is shaped by its small size, rural character, and cultural conservatism. Pulaski County (Little Rock) and Washington County (Fayetteville, home of the University of Arkansas) vote Democratic and provide the bulk of the state's Democratic vote. The Delta counties in the eastern part of the state, with significant Black populations, also vote Democratic. The rest of the state, particularly the Ozarks in the north and the rural southern and western counties, votes Republican by overwhelming margins. The state has the second-lowest share of college-educated voters of any state, which has reinforced its rightward shift among working-class white voters.
The state's politics are dominated by the Clinton-Huckabee dynastic shadow. Bill Clinton's national career and the Clinton Foundation's continued Little Rock presence are reminders of the state's Democratic past. The Huckabee family represents the new Arkansas Republican order: Mike Huckabee served as governor from 1996 to 2007 and is currently U.S. Ambassador to Israel; his daughter Sarah is governor. Arkansas has 6 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Arkansas become competitive again? Not at the presidential or U.S. Senate level. The structural factors that drove Arkansas's rightward shift (rural realignment, working-class white shifts, the decline of the Arkansas Democratic Party as an institution) are durable. The Clinton-era political infrastructure has aged out of state politics, and no comparable Democratic infrastructure has emerged to replace it. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Arkansas Governor Betting Odds
Sanders is the daughter of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (1996-2007), the former White House Press Secretary under Donald Trump (2017-2019), and the youngest governor in the United States at her 2022 election. She won 2022 by 28 points over Democrat Chris Jones, the largest gubernatorial margin in Arkansas history. Her Republican primary on March 3, 2026 was canceled, she had no challenger.
The Democratic primary nominated state Sen. Fred Love (Mabelvale), a term-limited legislator who defeated 2022 candidate Supha Xayprasith-Mays. Love is the underdog by every measure, fundraising, name recognition, and the structural fact that Arkansas Democrats have not won the governor's office since Mike Beebe's 2010 re-election. Cook rates Solid Republican.
The interesting subplot: Sanders has been mentioned in 2028 Republican presidential primary speculation. She campaigned for Trump in 2024 and has remained one of his most visible state-level allies. A second-term win in 2026 would position her for whatever the 2028 Republican field looks like. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Arkansas Governor Election History
Arkansas's governorship was a Democratic institution for most of the 20th century, the office Bill Clinton held five times before the presidency, but it flipped decisively in the 21st. Republican Mike Huckabee served from 1996 to 2007, Democrat Mike Beebe held two popular terms through 2015, and Beebe remains the last Democrat to win the office.
Republican Asa Hutchinson then served two terms, and in 2022 Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Huckabee's daughter and a former Trump White House press secretary, won by 28 points, the largest gubernatorial margin in state history. She is seeking a second term essentially unopposed, with Cook rating the race Solid Republican and national observers watching her as a possible 2028 presidential or vice-presidential figure.
Arkansas Senate Betting Odds
Tom Cotton, first elected to the Senate in 2014 by 17 points over Mark Pryor, is seeking a third term. He won the March 3 Republican primary against minor challengers Micah Ashby and Jeb Little, advancing to the general. The Senate Republican Conference Chair (third-ranking Senate Republican), Cotton has built a national profile around foreign policy hawkishness and immigration restriction.
The Democratic nominee, Hallie Shoffner, is a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer from Newport. Her primary win on March 3 over Ethan Dunbar gave her 78% of the Democratic primary vote. Her campaign centers on food insecurity, Arkansas has the highest rate of food insecurity of any state, and on the economic anxieties she argues Republicans in Washington are ignoring. Shoffner is the most credentialed Democratic Senate nominee Arkansas has fielded in a decade but the underlying math remains unforgiving: Trump won by 31 points, no Democrat has won an Arkansas Senate seat since Mark Pryor in 2008, and the state party infrastructure has atrophied. Cook rates Solid Republican. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Arkansas U.S. Senate Election History
Arkansas's Senate delegation completed its Republican turn in the 2010s. Democrat Blanche Lincoln lost in 2010 and Mark Pryor, the last Democratic senator, fell to Tom Cotton in 2014. John Boozman has held the other seat since 2011, and both have been safely Republican since.
Cotton, now the third-ranking Senate Republican and a prominent foreign-policy hawk, is seeking a third term and won his March primary easily. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer running on the state's nation-leading food insecurity, is his most credentialed challenger in years, but with Trump carrying Arkansas by roughly 31 points, Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Arkansas House Betting Odds
Republicans run the table in Arkansas's House delegation, and 2026 will not change that. The most competitive, and it's only relatively competitive, is AR-2 (French Hill, Central Arkansas including Little Rock). Hill faces a primary challenger (Chase McDowell) and is the only Arkansas Republican incumbent to draw one. His general-election opponent will be Chris Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee who lost to Sanders by 28 points but has retained statewide profile.
AR-1 (Rick Crawford, eastern Arkansas), AR-3 (Steve Womack, northwestern Arkansas), and AR-4 (Bruce Westerman, southern Arkansas) are all safely Republican with limited competitive activity. No mid-decade redistricting in Arkansas. Primary already complete (March 3, 2026); general election November 3. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
4 marketsArkansas U.S. House Election History
Arkansas's four House seats all turned Republican by the mid-2010s, completing the collapse of a once-dominant state Democratic Party. The delegation has been 4-0 Republican for years, with little general-election competition in any district.
The nearest thing to a contest is AR-2 around Little Rock, held by Republican French Hill, the only Arkansas incumbent to draw a primary challenger and the seat Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, is contesting. The other three districts are safely Republican, the March primaries are already complete, and Arkansas did not pursue mid-decade redistricting.
Arkansas Presidential Election Betting Odds
Arkansas's last Democratic presidential win came in 1996, when Bill Clinton carried his home state for a second time. Trump won Arkansas by 31 points in 2024, his third-largest state margin nationally after West Virginia and Oklahoma. Cook PVI rates Arkansas R+15. For 2028, the 6 electoral votes are safe Republican.
Sanders is the Arkansas figure most often mentioned in 2028 markets, as a potential presidential candidate herself (in a Trump-vacated field) or as a top vice presidential pick for whoever wins the Republican nomination. Her political profile combines the Trump-era loyalty test with Republican establishment governing experience.
Arkansas Presidential Election History
Few states have realigned as sharply as Arkansas. It backed favorite son Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, and the margins have only widened as rural and working-class white voters moved right.
Trump's margins have ranged from the mid-20s to about 31 points, among his largest anywhere, alongside West Virginia and Oklahoma. Cook PVI rates the state R+15, and its 6 electoral votes are safely Republican. For 2028, Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders is the Arkansas figure most often mentioned, as a potential candidate or running mate rather than as a sign of any statewide competitiveness.
Arkansas Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Arkansas politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Arkansas Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Arkansas's races, though the primaries are already complete and the general election is largely a formality. Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders seeks a second term, and Sen. Tom Cotton a third against Democratic farmer Hallie Shoffner. Republicans hold every statewide office and all four House seats.
Arkansas produces essentially no competitive general-election polling given its R+15 lean, so the meaningful long-range market is Sanders's 2028 national profile rather than any 2026 outcome. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Arkansas governor polls
No Arkansas governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Arkansas U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse (R) | February 7–9, 2026 | 550 (LV) | Tom Cotton (R) 58% · Hallie Shoffner (D) 36% · Undecided 7% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Arkansas under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 2 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Arkansas a red state or a blue state?
Arkansas is a deeply red state, transformed from its long Democratic past in about two decades. Trump carried it by roughly 25 to 31 points in 2024, Republicans hold every statewide office, and Cook PVI rates it R+15.
Is Sarah Huckabee Sanders favored for a second term?
Yes, overwhelmingly. Sanders ran unopposed in the Republican primary, won her 2022 race by a record 28 points, and faces a heavily outmatched Democratic nominee. Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Who is Tom Cotton running against?
Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer who won her primary with 78% running on food insecurity. Cotton, the third-ranking Senate Republican, is heavily favored, no Democrat has won an Arkansas Senate seat since 2008, and Cook rates it Solid Republican.
Are any Arkansas House seats competitive?
Only relatively. AR-2 around Little Rock, held by Republican French Hill, is the nearest thing to a contest, with Democrat Chris Jones challenging. The other three seats are safely Republican, and Arkansas did not redistrict mid-decade.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.