2026 Election Tracker
Hawaii Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Hawaii 2026 election odds for Gov. Josh Green's reelection, the contested lieutenant governor primary between Sylvia Luke and Derek Kawakami, and 2 House races.
| Electoral votes | 4 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 61% / Trump 37% (D+23 margin) |
| Current governor | Josh Green (D), seeking re-election |
| U.S. senators | Brian Schatz (D, next 2028), Mazie Hirono (D, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, both 2 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+14 |
The race that most Hawaii political insiders are watching in 2026 isn't for governor or U.S. Senate. It's for lieutenant governor, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke is facing a primary challenge from Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami while a Hawaii Attorney General investigation continues into an "influential state legislator" who allegedly accepted $35,000 in a bag. Luke hasn't been named as the target, but the investigation has hung over her since 2025, and Hawaii voters have a history of elevating lieutenant governors, both Sen. Brian Schatz and Sen. Mazie Hirono served as Lt. Gov. before reaching the Senate. Above that race, Gov. Josh Green is seeking a second term with no major primary challenger and no high-profile Republican declared. Both U.S. Senate seats are off-cycle. Two U.S. House seats are on the ballot, with the more competitive one being Ed Case's HI-1, where he faces two Democratic primary challenges. You will find all the election odds for Hawaii below on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Hawaii a Red State or a Blue State?
Hawaii is one of the bluest states in the country. Kamala Harris carried Hawaii by 23 points in 2024. Biden won it by 29.5 in 2020, Clinton by 32.2 in 2016, and Obama (a Hawaii native) by 42.7 in 2012 and 44.8 in 2008. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988 except for Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide. Cook PVI rates Hawaii D+14. Hawaii's Democratic identity dates back to its 1959 statehood, when the state's labor unions and Japanese American community built a dominant Democratic Party that has not loosened its grip.
The downballot picture is Democratic across the board. Democrats hold the governorship under Josh Green, who won by 27 points in 2022. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Brian Schatz and Mazie Hirono) and both U.S. House seats. Democrats hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, often producing one-party rule in which the most consequential political fights are intra-Democratic. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Hawaii since 1970 and have held the governorship only once (Linda Lingle, 2002-2010) in the past 60 years.
Hawaii's voting pattern reflects its unique demographic profile. The state has the highest share of Asian American residents of any state (roughly 37%), one of the largest Pacific Islander populations, and one of the smallest white population shares (roughly 25%). Honolulu County (Oahu) contains roughly 70% of the state's population and votes heavily Democratic. The neighbor islands (Maui, Hawaii, Kauai) vote Democratic but with somewhat more Republican strength in agricultural and rural areas. The state's Filipino, Japanese American, and Native Hawaiian communities have all voted Democratic by overwhelming margins for decades.
The state's politics have been shaped by its statehood-era labor politics, its multicultural population, its geographic isolation from the mainland, and the long shadow of native son Barack Obama. Hawaii's Republican Party has struggled to find a coherent identity in a state where its core mainland constituencies (white evangelicals, rural working-class voters) are demographically absent. Hawaii has 4 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Hawaii become competitive? No, not at any level. The state's structural Democratic advantages are too large, and the state's demographic profile is unlike any other state in the country. Republicans have no realistic path to statewide competitiveness in Hawaii. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Hawaii Governor Betting Odds
Josh Green, an emergency-room physician and former state legislator, won the 2022 gubernatorial race by 27 points over Republican Duke Aiona, the largest gubernatorial margin in Hawaii since the early 2000s. His first term has been dominated by the Maui wildfires recovery (the August 2023 Lahaina fire, the deadliest U.S. wildfire in over a century) and the 2026 Kona Low storms that triggered a presidential disaster declaration request in March. He has remained broadly popular through both crises.
Green is seeking re-election with no significant Democratic primary challenger. No high-profile Republican has declared for the August 8 primary, though candidates have until June 2 to file. Cook rates Solid Democratic.
The under-the-radar storyline is the lieutenant governor's race, which functions as a quasi-primary for the 2030 gubernatorial open seat. Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke, a former chair of the state House Finance Committee and the South Korean immigrant story Hawaii Democrats have promoted, faces a primary challenge from Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami. The race exists in the context of an ongoing state Attorney General investigation into an unidentified "influential state legislator" who allegedly accepted $35,000 in a bag. Luke has not been named as the focus of the investigation, but the cloud has persisted since 2025. Kawakami is campaigning on Garden Isle economic experience and crisis management (the 2018 storms, COVID-era resort bubbles). Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Hawaii Governor Election History
Hawaii's governorship has been a Democratic stronghold since statehood, with one exception in six decades. After Republican William Quinn won the first election in 1959, Democrat John Burns took the office in 1962 and his party held it through George Ariyoshi, John Waihee, and Ben Cayetano. Republican Linda Lingle broke the streak from 2002 to 2010, the only Republican governor in 60 years, before Democrats reclaimed it with Neil Abercrombie, David Ige, and Josh Green.
Green, an ER physician, won by 27 points in 2022 and is seeking a second term essentially unopposed, with no high-profile Republican declared and Cook rating the race Solid Democratic. The more closely watched contest is for lieutenant governor, a quasi-primary for the 2030 open governorship, where incumbent Sylvia Luke faces Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami amid an unresolved corruption investigation cloud.
Hawaii Senate Betting Odds
Neither Hawaii Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Brian Schatz (D), the state's senior senator and dean of the delegation, was re-elected in 2022 by 47 points and is next up in 2028. Mazie Hirono (D), the first elected female senator from Hawaii, the first Asian-American woman elected to the Senate, and the first U.S. senator born in Japan, was re-elected in 2024 by 31 points and is next up in 2030.
Hirono will be 86 in 2030. Schatz will be 56 in 2028 and is widely expected to seek re-election. No serious primary or general-election challenge is currently anticipated for either incumbent. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Hawaii U.S. Senate Election History
Hawaii's Senate seats have been Democratic for over half a century, the last Republican Senate win coming in 1970. The seats long held by Daniel Inouye and Daniel Akaka passed to Brian Schatz and Mazie Hirono, both of whom, in keeping with a local pattern, served as lieutenant governor or in the House before reaching the Senate.
Schatz, the delegation's dean, won re-election by 47 points in 2022 and is up in 2028; Hirono, the first Asian-American woman in the Senate and the first senator born in Japan, won by 31 points in 2024 and is up in 2030. Neither seat is on the 2026 ballot, and no serious challenge to either is anticipated.
Hawaii House Betting Odds
Hawaii's two House seats are both held by Democrats. HI-1 (Ed Case, urban Honolulu) is the more competitive primary. Case, a centrist Democrat who has held the seat since 2019 (and previously 2002-2007), faces two Democratic primary challenges from state legislators Jenna Keohokalole and Della Au Belatti. The general election is essentially decided in the August Democratic primary, Republicans have not held a Hawaii House seat since 1991.
HI-2 (Jill Tokuda, the rural-islands and neighbor-island district) is running for re-election with minimal challenge. The seat was previously held by Tulsi Gabbard (2013-2021) and Kai Kahele (2021-2023). Both general elections are Solid Democratic. No mid-decade redistricting in Hawaii. Primary August 8, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
Hawaii U.S. House Election History
Hawaii's two House seats have both been Democratic for decades, with no Republican holding one since 1991. As in most of Hawaii politics, the decisive contests are Democratic primaries rather than general elections.
HI-1, the urban Honolulu seat held by centrist Ed Case since 2019, is the more competitive primary, with Case facing challenges from two state legislators. HI-2, the neighbor-island district once held by Tulsi Gabbard and Kai Kahele, is held by Jill Tokuda with minimal opposition. Both general elections are Solid Democratic, and Hawaii did not pursue mid-decade redistricting.
Hawaii Presidential Election Betting Odds
The last time Hawaii went Republican for president was Richard Nixon's 1972 re-election landslide. Harris won by 23 points in 2024, comparable to Biden's 29-point 2020 margin and Hillary Clinton's 32-point 2016 win. Cook PVI rates the state D+14. The 4 electoral votes are safe Democratic for 2028.
Hawaii has produced one nationally prominent recent figure, Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic U.S. Rep who became Trump's Director of National Intelligence in 2025, though Gabbard's political trajectory took her outside Hawaii politics years ago. No current Hawaii politician appears in 2028 presidential conversations.
Hawaii Presidential Election History
Hawaii is one of the most Democratic states in presidential politics, voting blue in every election since 1988 with the sole modern exceptions of Nixon's 1972 landslide and Reagan's 1984 sweep. Its lean traces to a statehood-era coalition of labor unions and the Japanese American community, and it surged further for native son Barack Obama, who carried it by more than 40 points twice.
Margins have narrowed somewhat since, from Clinton's 32 points in 2016 to Harris's 23 in 2024, but the state remains safely blue at D+14. Its 4 electoral votes are never contested. The most prominent recent Hawaii figure nationally, Tulsi Gabbard, left the state's Democratic politics years ago and now serves in the Trump administration.
Hawaii Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Hawaii politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Hawaii Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Hawaii's races, though the contest insiders are watching most is for lieutenant governor, where incumbent Sylvia Luke faces Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami. Gov. Josh Green seeks a second term essentially unopposed, both Senate seats are off-cycle, and the more competitive House race is the HI-1 Democratic primary involving Ed Case.
Hawaii is one of the bluest states, so general elections are not competitive and the meaningful contests are Democratic primaries decided in August. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Hawaii governor polls
No Hawaii governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Hawaii U.S. Senate polls
No Hawaii U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Hawaii a red state or a blue state?
Hawaii is one of the bluest states in the country. Harris carried it by 23 points in 2024, Democrats hold every statewide and federal office, and Cook PVI rates it D+14. Its Democratic identity dates to statehood in 1959.
Is Josh Green favored for a second term?
Yes, overwhelmingly. Green won in 2022 by 27 points, faces no significant primary challenger, and no high-profile Republican has declared. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic.
Why is the Hawaii lieutenant governor race notable?
It functions as a quasi-primary for the open 2030 governorship, and Hawaii has a history of elevating lieutenant governors, both current senators served in the role. Incumbent Sylvia Luke faces Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami amid an unresolved state corruption investigation that has clouded the race since 2025.
Are any Hawaii House seats competitive?
Both seats are safely Democratic, so the action is in the primaries. HI-1, held by centrist Ed Case, is the more competitive, with two Democratic challengers. Republicans have not held a Hawaii House seat since 1991.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.