Indiana Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Indiana's 2026 ballot is sparse on paper — no governor's race, no Senate race, just nine House seats in a state that already has a 7-2 Republican delegation. But Indiana has produced one of the most consequential political stories of the cycle. In December 2025, the Indiana Senate became the only Republican-controlled chamber in the country to reject President Trump's mid-decade redistricting push, voting 31-19 to defeat a map that would have flipped both Democratic House seats to Republicans. Twenty-one Republicans joined all 10 Democrats in voting no. Trump, Vice President Vance, Gov. Mike Braun, and Sen. Jim Banks then spent five months working to defeat those Republican senators in primaries. The May 5 primary results determined whether Indiana redistricts in 2027 or sooner — and how much of Trump's intraparty leverage actually translates into electoral outcomes. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Indiana governor betting odds

No governor race in 2026. The next Indiana gubernatorial election is in 2028.

Mike Braun was elected governor in November 2024 with 54% of the vote, succeeding term-limited Republican Eric Holcomb. Braun previously served as U.S. Senator from 2019 to 2025 and was a key Trump ally during his first term. His Senate seat was filled by Jim Banks, who won the 2024 election to succeed him. Braun has emerged as one of the more aggressive governors in Trump's coalition — pushing for redistricting, lobbying for state-level DOGE-style efficiency cuts, and openly calling for the removal of Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray after the redistricting defeat.

Indiana presidential election betting odds

Indiana has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2008, when Barack Obama narrowly carried it — the state's only Democratic presidential vote since 1964. Trump won Indiana by 19 points in 2024, by 16 in 2020, and by 19 in 2016. The state is not competitive at the presidential level and is rated R+11 by Cook.

For 2028 markets, Indiana's electoral votes are safe Republican. Gov. Mike Braun appears in long-shot 2028 vice presidential markets given his prominence in the Trump coalition; Sen. Jim Banks has also been mentioned. Neither has signaled interest.

Indiana senate betting odds

Neither Indiana Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Sen. Todd Young (elected 2016, re-elected 2022) is next up in 2028. Sen. Jim Banks (elected 2024 to succeed Braun) is next up in 2030.

Banks has been unusually active in 2026 for a senator not on the ballot — running PACs that spent $2.2 million attacking state Senate incumbents who voted against redistricting, and earning the public label of Trump's most effective state-level enforcer in Indiana. Banks is likely to face his first re-election in 2030; markets at this point are simply tracking his profile rise.

Indiana house betting odds

Indiana has 9 House seats, currently split 7 Republicans to 2 Democrats. The two Democratic seats: IN-1 (Frank Mrvan, the Northwest Indiana/Gary-Hammond area) and IN-7 (Andre Carson, Indianapolis). Both have been Democratic for decades.

In a normal year, that's the whole story. 2026 is not a normal year — but the redistricting story has now ended without a new map.

The redistricting timeline: On October 27, 2025, Gov. Braun called a special legislative session at Trump's request. Vice President Vance visited Indiana to lobby legislators in person. After weeks of delays, on December 5, 2025, the Indiana House passed a new map 57-41 designed to flip both Mrvan's and Carson's seats, creating a 9-0 Republican delegation. On December 11, 2025, the Indiana Senate rejected the map 31-19. Twenty-one Republicans joined all 10 Democrats. Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray voted no. It was the first time any Republican-controlled state legislature rejected Trump's mid-decade redistricting push.

Trump, Braun, and Sen. Banks then targeted the dissenting Republican senators in the May 5, 2026 state primary. They endorsed primary challengers in seven of the eight races, spent $8.3 million in advertising on what would normally be obscure state legislative races, and on May 5 won at least five (possibly six) of the seven. Including senators not seeking re-election, at least six anti-redistricting senators are leaving the chamber. If redistricting supporters can flip two more general election results in November, they will have the 26 votes to pass a new map in 2027 or earlier.

Braun told reporters on May 6 that it's too late to redistrict for 2026. The 2026 elections will run under the existing 2021 map. Frank Mrvan and Andre Carson are both expected to win re-election in their current districts. The longer-term question — whether Indiana redraws for 2028 or earlier — depends on what happens to Sen. Bray's leadership position. Trump and Braun have both publicly called for Bray to step down.

No statewide federal races on the ballot. Primary May 5, 2026 (already held). General election November 3, 2026.