2026 Election Tracker
Iowa Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Iowa 2026 election odds for the first open governor and Senate races in 58 years after Kim Reynolds and Joni Ernst both retired, plus Iowa's voting history.
| Electoral votes | 6 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 56% / Harris 43% (R+13 margin) |
| Current governor | Kim Reynolds (R), retiring |
| U.S. senators | Joni Ernst (R, retiring), Chuck Grassley (R, age 91, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), U.S. Senate (open), all 4 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+6 |
For the first time since 1968, Iowa is holding an open-seat election for both governor and U.S. senator in the same year. Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds announced in April 2025 that she would not seek a third term. Republican Sen. Joni Ernst announced in September that she would not seek a third term either, a decision partly driven by backlash to her May 2025 town hall response to a constituent worried about Medicaid cuts. Asked about preventable deaths tied to the Big Beautiful Bill Act, Ernst replied, "Well, we all are going to die," then followed up with a video filmed in a cemetery. The June 2 primaries set both races. In the biggest surprise of the night, businessman Zach Lahn narrowly defeated Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra in the Republican primary for governor, the first time in the 2026 cycle that a Trump-backed candidate lost a primary, and will face Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand in November. In the Senate race, Trump-endorsed Rep. Ashley Hinson won the Republican nomination and will meet Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, with national Democrats targeting Iowa as one of the four seats they need to flip the chamber. The US election odds are moving fast, but here at ElectionOdds.com you will find all the most current information online.
Is Iowa a Red State or a Blue State?
Iowa is a red state, after spending most of the past three decades as a swing state. Trump carried Iowa by 13.2 points in 2024, by 8.2 in 2020, and by 9.4 in 2016. Barack Obama won Iowa by 9.5 points in 2008 and 5.8 in 2012, making it part of his Blue Wall. The shift from genuine swing state to safe Republican happened faster in Iowa than in any other Midwestern state. Cook PVI rates Iowa R+6. Iowa held first-in-the-nation caucus status for the Democratic Party from 1972 through 2024, when the DNC ended the tradition.
The downballot picture is now overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Kim Reynolds, who won reelection by 18 points in 2022 and is up again in 2026 if she chooses to run. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Chuck Grassley, in his 8th term, and Joni Ernst), all four U.S. House seats, and both chambers of the state legislature. The 2024 cycle saw Iowa Republicans build their largest legislative majorities in modern state history. There has been only one elected statewide Democrat in Iowa since 2018.
Iowa's voting pattern is built on its unusual demographic profile. The state is roughly 90% white, more than any other state of comparable size, and has a high share of working-class voters without college degrees. Polk County (Des Moines), Linn County (Cedar Rapids), and Johnson County (Iowa City) vote Democratic, but the state's 99 counties include dozens of small rural counties that vote Republican by 70-point or larger margins. The Mississippi River counties (Dubuque, Clinton, Scott), once reliably Democratic mining and union strongholds, have shifted decisively Republican since 2016.
The state's loss of its Democratic caucus and competitive status reflects a national shift among working-class white voters. Iowa was decided by less than 1 point in 2000 and again in 2004 but has not been within 8 points since 2012. The 2024 cycle saw the state's last competitive U.S. House seat (the 3rd District around Des Moines) shift toward Republicans by a margin that suggests Democratic competitiveness there may also be over. Iowa has 6 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Iowa become competitive again? Not in the near term. The structural factors driving Iowa's rightward shift (rural white realignment, deindustrialization in the Mississippi River cities, the absence of large minority populations to drive demographic change) are still in place. Democrats have effectively stopped competing for the state at the presidential level, and the 2024 results suggest the same pattern is now extending to downballot races. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Iowa Governor Betting Odds
Kim Reynolds was elevated to the governorship in 2017 when Terry Branstad became ambassador to China, won full terms in 2018 (by 3 points) and 2022 (by 18). Her April 2025 retirement announcement created the first open Iowa gubernatorial race since 2010, and the first since 2006 that Democrats viewed as winnable.
Republican primary (June 2, 2026): In a major upset, businessman and farmer Zach Lahn defeated U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, 37.8% to 37%, with the other candidates, including former state official Adam Steen, trailing. Feenstra had been considered the frontrunner and won a late endorsement from President Trump in the final week, but Lahn, who ran as a supporter of the Make America Healthy Again movement and cast himself as an outsider against the party establishment, edged him by less than a percentage point. Feenstra conceded on election night. It was the first primary defeat of a Trump-endorsed candidate in the 2026 cycle.
Democratic primary: State Auditor Rob Sand ran unopposed and is the Democratic nominee. He is the only Democrat currently holding statewide office in Iowa and is genuinely popular, having won re-election in 2022 even as Republicans swept everything else. Sand now faces Republican Zach Lahn in a general election the Cook Political Report rates a toss-up, an unusually competitive rating for a state Trump carried by 13 points. Iowa has voted Republican in the last three presidential races, but midterm cycles often punish the party in power federally, and Democrats are counting on Sand's personal popularity and Lahn's status as an untested first-time candidate. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Governor primary
Iowa Governor Election History
Iowa's governorship has been Republican-held since 2011. Democrat Tom Vilsack served two terms beginning in 1999, and Chet Culver followed for one term, but Culver lost in 2010 to Republican Terry Branstad, who returned to the office he had already held from 1983 to 1999. Branstad became the longest-serving governor in U.S. history before leaving in 2017 to be ambassador to China, and Culver remains the last Democrat to hold the office.
Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds succeeded Branstad and won full terms in 2018 and 2022, but her April 2025 decision not to seek a third term opened the first competitive Iowa governor's race in years. In a June 2 upset, businessman Zach Lahn edged Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra by less than a point for the Republican nomination, while Democrats nominated popular State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office. Cook rates the open race a toss-up.
Iowa Senate Betting Odds
Joni Ernst's September 2025 retirement announcement transformed this from a competitive but uphill Democratic challenge into an open-seat fight. Trump-endorsed U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (IA-2, eastern Iowa) entered immediately and is the Republican primary frontrunner. She brings what strategists view as fewer political vulnerabilities than Ernst would have carried, particularly the "we all are going to die" comment that became a national flashpoint. The May 2025 town hall remark, given in response to a constituent's concerns about Medicaid cuts in the Big Beautiful Bill Act, was followed by a video Ernst filmed in a cemetery that observers across the political spectrum called dismissive.
Republican primary: Hinson faces former state Sen. Jim Carlin (a 2022 Senate candidate) and Libertarian-turned-Republican Joshua Smith (2024 Libertarian presidential nominee). Hinson is heavily favored.
Democratic primary: State Rep. Josh Turek of Council Bluffs won the nomination, defeating former Senate Minority Leader Zach Wahls and the rest of a five-way field. Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, will face Hinson with limited statewide name recognition but in a midterm environment that historically favors the out-party. National Democrats are targeting the Iowa Senate seat as one of the four they need to retake the chamber. Cook rates the race Lean R. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Senate primary
3 marketsIowa U.S. Senate Election History
Iowa's Senate seats have been Republican strongholds. Chuck Grassley, first elected in 1980, is one of the longest-serving senators in history and remains in office at 91. Joni Ernst won the other seat in 2014, becoming the first woman Iowa sent to the Senate, and held it until announcing her retirement in 2025.
Ernst's exit, accelerated by backlash to a town-hall remark about Medicaid cuts, turned 2026 into an open-seat race. Trump-endorsed Rep. Ashley Hinson won the Republican nomination on June 2, while Democrats nominated state Rep. Josh Turek for a seat national Democrats see as one of their four best pickup chances. Cook rates the race Lean R.
Iowa House Betting Odds
Two of Iowa's four congressional seats are open because the incumbents are running for higher office, and two others are among the closest House races in the country.
IA-2 (Hinson's seat, eastern Iowa including Cedar Rapids) is open because Hinson is running for Senate. IA-4 (Feenstra's seat, western Iowa) is open because Feenstra is running for governor. Both seats are safely Republican on paper but are now competitive open primaries.
The two seats most likely to flip are IA-1 (Mariannette Miller-Meeks, southeastern Iowa) and IA-3 (Zach Nunn, central Iowa around Des Moines). Both Republicans won 2024 by less than 1 point each, IA-1 by 800 votes, IA-3 by less than 1 point. National Democrats have flagged both seats as top targets. Iowa's congressional map was drawn in 2021 by the state's nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency; no mid-decade redistricting. Primary June 2, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
4 marketsIowa U.S. House Election History
Iowa's four-seat delegation has swung with the state's broader realignment, and Democrats held multiple seats as recently as the late 2010s before the map turned solidly Republican. Iowa's districts are drawn by a nonpartisan agency, producing genuinely competitive lines rather than gerrymanders.
For 2026, two seats are open as Ashley Hinson (IA-2) runs for Senate and Randy Feenstra (IA-4) runs for governor, both safely Republican on paper. The real battlegrounds are IA-1 (Mariannette Miller-Meeks) and IA-3 (Zach Nunn), each won by under a point in 2024, among the closest House races in the country and top national Democratic targets.
Iowa Presidential Election Betting Odds
Iowa has shifted faster than almost any other state in the last decade. The state voted for Obama by 6 points in 2012, Trump by 9 in 2016, Trump by 8 in 2020, and Trump by 13 in 2024, a 19-point swing in four cycles. The Iowa Caucuses are likely to remain a meaningful early Republican primary contest (the Democratic caucus structure has been effectively dismantled). Cook PVI rates Iowa R+6. For 2028, the 6 electoral votes are safe Republican.
Senator Chuck Grassley, 91 years old as of 2025 and Iowa's senior senator since 1981, has not announced 2028 plans. Iowa has the longest-serving governor (Terry Branstad), state attorney general (Tom Miller), and state treasurer (Mike Fitzgerald) in U.S. history, institutional longevity is part of the state's political DNA.
Iowa Presidential Election History
Iowa was one of the truest swing states in the country for a generation, decided by less than a point in both 2000 and 2004 and carried twice by Barack Obama as part of his Blue Wall. Then it shifted right faster than any other Midwestern state.
Trump won it by about 9 points in 2016, 8 in 2020, and 13 in 2024, a 19-point swing from Obama's 2012 margin, driven by the realignment of rural and working-class white voters and the rightward turn of the once-Democratic Mississippi River counties. Cook PVI now rates the state R+6, its 6 electoral votes are safely Republican, and the DNC ended Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus status after 2024.
Iowa Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Iowa politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Iowa Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Iowa's races, headlined by open-seat contests for both governor and Senate, the first time since 1968 both have been open in the same year. In the governor's race, Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra is the primary frontrunner while Democrats rally behind popular State Auditor Rob Sand. In the Senate race, Trump-endorsed Rep. Ashley Hinson leads the Republican field after Joni Ernst's retirement.
Iowa has moved sharply right, so the question is whether Democrats' best candidates, especially Sand, can run ahead of the state's R+6 lean in a midterm. Also watch the two genuinely close House races, IA-1 and IA-3, both decided by under a point in 2024. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Iowa governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) | June 16–19, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Zach Lahn (R) 43% · Rob Sand (D) 48% · Undecided 9% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | May 27–28, 2026 | 550 (A) | Eddie Andrews 4% · Randy Feenstra 22% · Zach Lahn 24% · Brad Sherman 8% · Adam Steen 15% · Undecided 27% |
| Victory Enterprises (R) | April 14–15, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Eddie Andrews 5% · Randy Feenstra 41% · Zach Lahn 8% · Brad Sherman 5% · Adam Steen 9% · Undecided 32% |
| Echelon Insights | April 3–9, 2026 | 377 (LV) | Randy Feenstra (R) 39% · Rob Sand (D) 51% · Undecided 10% |
| GBAO (D) | March 10–16, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | Randy Feenstra (R) 42% · Rob Sand (D) 50% · Undecided 8% |
| Z to A Research (D) | October 9–13, 2025 | 1,351 (LV) | Randy Feenstra (R) 43% · Rob Sand (D) 45% · Undecided 12% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 14 minutes ago.
Iowa U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) | June 16–19, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Ashley Hinson (R) 46% · Josh Turek (D) 44% · Undecided 10% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | June 8–11, 2026 | 1,000 (LV) | Ashley Hinson (R) 45% · Josh Turek (D) 47% · Undecided 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 3–4, 2026 | 557 (RV) | Ashley Hinson (R) 46% · Josh Turek (D) 46% · Undecided 7% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | May 27–28, 2026 | 550 (A) | Ashley Hinson 58% · Jim Carlin 19% · Undecided 23% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | May 20–21, 2026 | 672 (LV) | Josh Turek 52% · Zach Wahls 31% · Undecided 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | May 5–6, 2026 | 764 (LV) | Josh Turek 53% · Zach Wahls 27% · Undecided 20% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 14 minutes ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Iowa a red state or a blue state?
Iowa is now a red state after decades as a swing state. It backed Obama twice but Trump carried it by about 13 points in 2024, Republicans hold every statewide and federal office, and Cook PVI rates it R+6. It shifted right faster than any other Midwestern state.
Why are both Iowa statewide federal seats open in 2026?
Governor Kim Reynolds announced in April 2025 she would not seek a third term, and Senator Joni Ernst announced her retirement in September. It is the first time since 1968 that Iowa has open governor and Senate races in the same year.
Can Democrats win in Iowa in 2026?
They are trying, with State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office, leading the governor bid, and a crowded field for the open Senate seat Democrats count among their four best pickup chances. But Iowa's R+6 lean makes both races Lean R per Cook.
Which Iowa House seats are competitive?
IA-1 (Mariannette Miller-Meeks) and IA-3 (Zach Nunn), both won by Republicans by under a point in 2024 and flagged as top Democratic targets. IA-2 and IA-4 are also open because their incumbents are running for Senate and governor.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.