Kansas Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Kansas Democrats have one structural problem and one structural advantage. The problem: in a state Trump won by 16 points, with Republican supermajorities in both legislative chambers and Republican U.S. senators since 2012, statewide Democratic wins require everything to go right. The advantage: Laura Kelly won the governor's office twice anyway, and the Democratic firewall she built is now the only thing standing between Republican lawmakers and unchecked power. Kelly is term-limited. The 2026 election decides whether her successor preserves the firewall. Republican primary frontrunner Secretary of State Scott Schwab, former Gov. Jeff Colyer, Senate President Ty Masterson, and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt are competing for the August 4 nomination. Democratic state Sens. Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher are the two main candidates on the Democratic side. Roger Marshall is running for a second Senate term against a fragmented Democratic field. Four House seats — including the most competitive Democratic-held seat in the country. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Kansas governor betting odds

Kelly's path: she won in 2018 by 5 points over Kris Kobach (after Kobach narrowly beat sitting Gov. Jeff Colyer in the GOP primary), and re-elected in 2022 by 2 points over former AG Derek Schmidt. She has been a steady ideological brake on a Republican-supermajority legislature for two terms. Republicans have overridden her vetoes when they could; on most major Democratic priorities, her veto has held.

Republican primary (August 4, 2026): Four serious candidates.

• Secretary of State Scott Schwab built his profile pushing back against election conspiracy theories — the kind of profile that performs well in general elections but can struggle in Republican primaries.
• Former Gov. Jeff Colyer held the office for 11 months in 2018 after Sam Brownback resigned, lost the GOP primary to Kobach, briefly ran in 2022 before withdrawing over a prostate cancer diagnosis.
• State Senate President Ty Masterson, a small business owner who has been a state senator since 2009 — the legislative leadership candidate.
• Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt is the fourth statewide officeholder in the race.

Democratic primary: State Sen. Ethan Corson (Fairway), endorsed by Gov. Kelly, an attorney and former state party executive director with deep institutional ties. State Sen. Cindy Holscher (Overland Park) is the progressive option. Former state Transportation Secretary Julie Lorenz is also running.

The general election analysis depends heavily on which Republican wins the August primary. Schwab is the moderate Republican most likely to win in November; Masterson or Colyer would give Democrats more room. Cook rates Likely Republican.

Kansas presidential election betting odds

Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, basically matching his 2020 margin of 15. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 except for LBJ's 1964 win. Cook PVI rates Kansas R+10.

For 2028, the 6 electoral votes are safe Republican. No Kansas politician currently appears in 2028 presidential markets. The state's most prominent recent national figure, Brownback, transitioned to ambassador roles and is not in active politics. Kansas remains structurally Republican at the federal level while delivering periodic surprises at the state level — Kelly's 2018 and 2022 wins, the 2022 abortion-rights ballot measure that won by 18 points.

Kansas senate betting odds

Marshall is seeking a second term after winning 2020 by 12 points over Democrat Barbara Bollier (the closest Kansas Senate race since 1996). His primary opponent (Chase LaPorte) is not seriously contesting the nomination. The general election will be against the winner of an 11-candidate Democratic primary that has no clear frontrunner — surgeon Kevin Latz, attorney Anne Parelkar, state Sen. Patrick Schmidt (the 2022 nominee for a U.S. House district), retired financial executive Sandy Spidel Neumann, and others. A fragmented Democratic primary with no consolidating candidate is the structural advantage Marshall enters with.

Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932 — the longest Republican Senate streak in the country. Cook rates Solid Republican. Primary August 4, 2026.

Kansas house betting odds

Sharice Davids holds the most competitive Democratic-leaning House seat in the country in a district Trump has carried four times — and she keeps winning it. Davids has held KS-3 (the Kansas City suburbs) since 2018, flipping it from Republican Kevin Yoder, and has won re-election four times in a district Trump has carried. Her 2024 margin was 11 points. KS-3 is the kind of swing-district Democratic incumbency Republican strategists have spent years trying to break and have not succeeded.

Davids is on national Republican target lists every cycle. The Republican primary will produce her opponent in August. The other three seats — KS-1 (Tracey Mann, western Kansas), KS-2 (Derek Schmidt, eastern Kansas), KS-4 (Ron Estes, Wichita) — are safe Republican.

No mid-decade redistricting in Kansas. Primary August 4, 2026.