2026 Election Tracker
Kentucky Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Kentucky 2026 election odds for the open Senate seat Mitch McConnell is leaving after 42 years, the GOP primary, all 6 House races, plus state voting history.
| Electoral votes | 8 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 64% / Harris 34% (R+30 margin) |
| Current governor | Andy Beshear (D), next election 2027 |
| U.S. senators | Mitch McConnell (R, retiring), Rand Paul (R, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | U.S. Senate (open), all 6 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | R+16 |
Kentucky's federal ballot in 2026 has one race that genuinely matters and one outcome that's effectively predetermined. The race that matters is the open U.S. Senate seat that Mitch McConnell is leaving after 42 years, a three-way Republican primary on May 19 in which all three serious candidates are competing for Donald Trump's endorsement. The race that's predetermined is the general election, which barring something unusual will go Republican; Kentucky hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1992. Andy Beshear remains governor through 2027 (Kentucky uses odd-year gubernatorial cycles), so there's no top-of-ticket Democratic race to anchor turnout. The Senate primary, in other words, is essentially the entire story. Our staff at ElectionOdds.com makes sure that you have the most current US election odds, so make sure to look around for other Kentucky election props and election odds.
Is Kentucky a Red State or a Blue State?
Kentucky is a red state with a notable exception: a Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, who has won twice in a state Trump carried by more than 20 points. Trump carried Kentucky by 30.7 points in 2024, by 26 in 2020, and by 30 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000 and is no longer considered a swing state at the federal level. Cook PVI rates Kentucky R+16. Kentucky's transformation from a Democratic-leaning swing state in the 1990s to a deeply Republican state happened gradually but decisively.
The downballot picture is overwhelmingly Republican except for the governorship. Democrat Andy Beshear holds the office after winning by less than 5,000 votes in 2019 and by 5 points in 2023. He is one of only two Democratic governors of a state Trump carried by more than 15 points, alongside Kansas's Laura Kelly. Beshear is widely discussed as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, with McConnell's seat opening at the end of his term), all 6 U.S. House seats, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Kentucky's legislative Republicans have been able to override Beshear vetoes throughout his governorship.
Kentucky's voting pattern is shaped by its mountain culture, its coal history, and its agricultural base. Jefferson County (Louisville) and Fayette County (Lexington) vote Democratic, anchored by their cities and universities. The rest of the state, including the Eastern Kentucky coal counties, Western Kentucky agricultural areas, and Northern Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati, votes Republican by overwhelming margins. The state's African American population, concentrated in Louisville and Lexington, is roughly 9%. The state's rural eastern counties have moved sharply Republican since 2008, mirroring the West Virginia coal-county shift.
The state has been at the center of national politics through Mitch McConnell's career, which has spanned every cycle since 1985. McConnell's 2026 retirement opened one of the most-watched Senate seats of the cycle, with Republican Andy Barr winning the GOP primary in May 2026 with Trump's endorsement. The 2026 cycle also features Beshear's eventual term-limited departure in January 2028 and his expected national pivot. Kentucky has 8 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Kentucky become competitive again? Not at the presidential or U.S. Senate level. The state's structural Republican advantages are too large, and the demographic forces driving its rightward shift are durable. The Beshear governorship is the exception that proves the rule: a personally talented moderate Democrat from a famous political family in a state with deep cultural-Democratic roots, who has nonetheless not been able to expand his coalition to win statewide for any other Democrat. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Kentucky Governor Betting Odds
Kentucky's May 19, 2026 primary delivered two major stories. The first: U.S. Rep. Andy Barr won the Republican nomination for the open U.S. Senate seat Mitch McConnell is leaving after 42 years, defeating former Attorney General Daniel Cameron 64 percent to 28 percent. Trump's endorsement of Barr, and the pressure that pushed third candidate Nate Morris out of the race earlier in the cycle, proved decisive.
The second story is bigger nationally: Trump-backed Ed Gallrein defeated Rep. Thomas Massie in the Republican primary for KY-4, ending the libertarian congressman's 13-year run in the House. It was the most expensive House primary in U.S. history at $32.6 million in advertising spending.
On the Democratic side, former state Rep. Charles Booker won the Senate primary against 2020 nominee Amy McGrath, but the general election will be uphill, Kentucky hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1992. Andy Beshear remains governor through 2027 (Kentucky uses odd-year gubernatorial cycles), so there's no top-of-ticket Democratic race to anchor turnout. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Kentucky Governor Election History
Kentucky long clung to a Democratic-governor tradition even as it turned red federally. From 1971 until 2003, only Democrats held the office, and the lone Republican of that era, Ernie Fletcher, won in 2003 amid Democratic scandal and lost in 2007 to Democrat Steve Beshear, who served two terms. Republican Matt Bevin won in 2015 but lost in 2019 to Steve's son, Andy Beshear, by fewer than 5,000 votes.
Andy Beshear won re-election in 2023 by 5 points, making him one of only two Democratic governors of a state Trump carried by more than 15 points. Kentucky votes for governor in odd years, so there is no 2026 gubernatorial race, Beshear's term runs through 2027 and he is term-limited thereafter. His popularity in a deep-red state has fueled steady 2028 presidential speculation, even as no other Kentucky Democrat has been able to win statewide.
Kentucky Senate Betting Odds
McConnell announced February 20, 2025 he would not seek an eighth term, ending the longest run for any single Senate seat in Kentucky history (42 years; first elected 1984). It was the first open Kentucky Senate election since 1972.
The Republican primary was decided by Trump's endorsement. U.S. Rep. Andy Barr (KY-6, Lexington-area, in Congress since 2013) won the May 19 Republican primary with 64 percent of the vote. Trump endorsed him, called Kentucky voters in a tele-rally on the eve of the primary, and pressured businessman Nate Morris to drop out of the race months earlier. Barr's victory ends the McConnell era in Kentucky Republican politics and replaces it with a member of the Trump-aligned House Republican leadership. His Senate run opens the KY-6 district, where Trump-endorsed Ralph Alvarado won the Republican nomination. Daniel Cameron, former Kentucky Attorney General (2019-2024) and 2023 gubernatorial nominee who lost to Beshear by 5 points, finished second with 28 percent. Cameron entered with the strongest statewide name recognition but his decade-long association with McConnell, Cameron worked for McConnell from 2015 to 2017, proved to be more burden than asset in a primary defined by Trump alignment. He has now lost two consecutive statewide races.
Charles Booker won the Democratic Senate primary with 47 percent, defeating 2020 Democratic nominee Amy McGrath (36 percent) in a rematch of their 2020 primary, which McGrath won by 3 points. This time Booker dominated the two most-populous Democratic counties, Jefferson and Fayette, to flip the result. Booker, a former state representative running on a progressive platform of Medicare for All and universal income, now faces a general election in a state Trump carried by 30 points. House Minority Floor Leader Pamela Stevenson, attorney Logan Forsythe, and Joshua Blanton Sr. rounded out the Democratic field. Kentucky has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Wendell Ford was re-elected in 1992, 34 years. Cook rates the Barr-Booker general election Solid Republican. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Kentucky U.S. Senate Election History
Kentucky's Senate seats have been Republican for a generation, most prominently the seat Mitch McConnell held for 42 years after first winning it in 1984, the longest tenure for any single Senate seat in state history. Rand Paul has held the other seat since 2010. The last Democrat Kentucky sent to the Senate was Wendell Ford, re-elected in 1992.
McConnell's 2026 retirement opened the seat for the first time since 1972 and set off a Trump-defined Republican primary that Rep. Andy Barr won decisively over former AG Daniel Cameron, 64 to 28. Democrat Charles Booker won his party's nomination over Amy McGrath but faces a steep general election in a state Trump carried by 30 points. Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Kentucky House Betting Odds
The Kentucky delegation runs 5 Republican to 1 Democrat (Morgan McGarvey in KY-3, Louisville). The May 19 primary upended one of those Republican seats and opened another.
KY-4 (Northern Kentucky) was the night's headline race. Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein defeated incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie, ending Massie's 13-year run in Congress. The race became the most expensive House primary in U.S. history, with $32.6 million in advertising spending. Trump targeted Massie aggressively over multiple breaks with the administration, Massie pushed to release the Jeffrey Epstein files, voted against Trump's signature tax bill, and publicly opposed military action against Iran. Trump told reporters election night, "On the Massie thing: he was a bad guy. He deserves to lose." Gallrein, a Trump recruit, will face a Democratic nominee in November but the district is safe Republican regardless. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who called Massie "a thorn in my side for a long time," said he was "not surprised" by the loss.
KY-6 (Lexington area) is open following Andy Barr's Senate run. Trump-endorsed Ralph Alvarado won the Republican primary. Alvarado, a former state senator and physician who served as Tennessee Department of Health commissioner under Gov. Bill Lee, was Kentucky's first Hispanic state senator and was the 2019 Republican lieutenant gubernatorial nominee. Beshear carried the district in the 2023 gubernatorial race, and the DCCC has identified KY-6 as a 2026 priority, though Kentucky's strong Republican lean limits how aggressively national Democrats will invest. KY-3 (McGarvey) is safe Democratic. KY-1, KY-2, and KY-5 are safe Republican with no competitive primary or general dynamic. No mid-decade redistricting in Kentucky. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
6 marketsKentucky U.S. House Election History
Kentucky's six-seat delegation has been 5-1 Republican, with the lone Democratic seat the Louisville-based KY-3, held by Morgan McGarvey. Republican legislatures have drawn maps that pack Democratic voters into that single Louisville district while keeping the rest of the state safely red.
The 2026 primaries reshaped the Republican side without changing the partisan math. In a $32.6 million race, the most expensive House primary in U.S. history, Trump-backed Ed Gallrein ousted libertarian Rep. Thomas Massie in KY-4 after Massie broke with the administration repeatedly. KY-6 opened when Andy Barr ran for Senate, with Trump-endorsed Ralph Alvarado taking the nomination in a Lexington-area seat Beshear carried in 2023 and Democrats have eyed, though Kentucky's lean limits their investment.
Kentucky Presidential Election Betting Odds
Trump's 30-point margin in Kentucky in 2024 was among his strongest performances anywhere in the country. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1996, with Kentucky's federal partisan lean diverging sharply from its gubernatorial pattern (Beshear and his father Steve Beshear have each won two terms). Cook PVI rates Kentucky R+16. For 2028, the 8 electoral votes are safe Republican.
The state's two prominent figures in any 2028 conversation: Sen. Rand Paul, who has run for president before and remains the libertarian-conservative option, and Beshear, whose path requires winning a Democratic presidential primary as a governor of a deep-red state, an unusual but not unprecedented profile.
Kentucky Presidential Election History
Kentucky was a Democratic-leaning swing state into the 1990s, voting for Bill Clinton twice, but it has gone Republican in every presidential election since 2000 as its rural, coal, and working-class regions realigned sharply rightward. The Eastern Kentucky coal counties in particular swung hard after 2008, mirroring neighboring West Virginia.
Trump's margins were enormous, about 30 points in 2016, 26 in 2020, and nearly 31 in 2024, among his strongest showings anywhere. Cook PVI rates the state R+16, and its 8 electoral votes are safely Republican. The sharp divergence between Kentucky's federal lean and its willingness to elect Beshear governor is one of the more striking splits in American politics, but it does not extend to the presidential race.
Kentucky Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Kentucky politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Kentucky Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Kentucky's races, now past the May 19 primary. The marquee contest is the open U.S. Senate seat, where Republican Rep. Andy Barr faces Democrat Charles Booker after both won their primaries. There is no governor race this cycle, Andy Beshear's term runs through 2027.
Kentucky rarely produces competitive federal general-election polling given its deep-red lean, so the Barr-Booker race starts Solid Republican. The most consequential 2026 result already happened in the KY-4 primary, where Trump-backed Ed Gallrein ousted Rep. Thomas Massie. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Kentucky governor polls
No Kentucky governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Kentucky U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| UpONE Insights (R) | May 9–11, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Andy Barr 46% · Daniel Cameron 27% · Nate Morris 8% · Other 3% · Undecided 16% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 3–5, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Andy Barr 43% · Daniel Cameron 24% · Nate Morris 9% · Other 5% · Undecided 19% |
| UpONE Insights (R) | April 2026 | – (LV) | Andy Barr 33% · Daniel Cameron 32% · Nate Morris 13% · Other 5% · Undecided 17% |
| Emerson College | March 29–31, 2026 | 549 (LV) | Andy Barr 28% · Daniel Cameron 21% · Nate Morris 15% · Other 6% · Undecided 29% |
| Emerson College | March 29–31, 2026 | 400 (LV) | Charles Booker 36% · Amy McGrath 18% · Pamela Stevenson 3% · Undecided 38% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | March 10–12, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Andy Barr 29% · Daniel Cameron 31% · Nate Morris 13% · Undecided 27% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 10 minutes ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Kentucky a red state or a blue state?
Kentucky is a red state with one notable exception, its Democratic governor Andy Beshear. Trump carried it by about 31 points in 2024, Republicans hold both Senate seats and all but one House seat, and Cook PVI rates it R+16.
Who is running for the open Kentucky Senate seat?
After Mitch McConnell retired following 42 years, Republican Rep. Andy Barr won the May 19 primary over former AG Daniel Cameron, 64 to 28, with Trump's endorsement. He faces Democrat Charles Booker in November. Kentucky has not elected a Democratic senator since 1992, and Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Is there a Kentucky governor race in 2026?
No. Kentucky elects governors in odd years, so Democrat Andy Beshear's term runs through 2027. The 2026 ballot is the open Senate seat and all six U.S. House seats.
What happened to Thomas Massie?
Trump-backed Ed Gallrein defeated libertarian Rep. Thomas Massie in the May 19 KY-4 Republican primary, ending Massie's 13-year House run. At $32.6 million, it was the most expensive House primary in U.S. history, fueled by Trump's targeting of Massie over repeated breaks with the administration.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.