2026 Election Tracker
Maine Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Maine 2026 election odds for Susan Collins' Senate defense, populist Graham Platner's Democratic run, the open governor race, and Jared Golden's ME-2 House run.
| Electoral votes | 4 (split by district: 2 at-large + 1 per district) |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 52% / Trump 45% statewide (D+7); Trump won ME-2 |
| Current governor | Janet Mills (D), term-limited |
| U.S. senators | Susan Collins (R, on 2026 ballot), Angus King (I, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), U.S. Senate, both 2 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+2 statewide; ME-2 is R+6 |
Susan Collins is the only Republican U.S. senator from a state Kamala Harris won. That single fact has made Maine the most expensive non-presidential race of 2026, and the structural variable that could determine control of the Senate. The Democratic side of that race shifted dramatically in late April when Gov. Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign, she had launched in October 2025 with national party backing, but struggled to gain traction against oyster farmer Graham Platner, a Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren-endorsed populist newcomer with controversial old Reddit posts and a Sanders-style economic message. Platner is now the de facto Democratic nominee. Mills, term-limited from running for governor again, leaves an open gubernatorial race that includes U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, the Trump-district Democrat whose ME-2 seat is one of the most competitive House races in the country. Track it all on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Maine a Red State or a Blue State?
Maine is a Democratic-leaning state with significant rural Republican strength and a unique electoral-vote split system. Kamala Harris carried Maine by 7.0 points in 2024 statewide, but Trump won the state's 2nd Congressional District for the third consecutive time, picking up one electoral vote. Biden won statewide by 9.1 in 2020, Clinton by 2.9 in 2016, and Obama by 15.3 in 2012. Cook PVI rates Maine statewide D+2. Maine and Nebraska are the only states that split electoral votes by congressional district rather than awarding them winner-take-all.
The downballot picture has been Democratic but with notable Republican exceptions. Democrats hold the governorship under Janet Mills, who is term-limited in January 2027. Democrats hold both chambers of the state legislature. Maine's two U.S. Senators are split: independent Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats, and Republican Susan Collins, who has held her seat since 1997 and is one of the longest-serving members of the Senate. Collins's 2020 reelection by 8.6 points, while Biden was winning the state by 9 points, was one of the most striking ticket-splitting performances in modern Senate history.
Maine's voting pattern is divided along the line that separates the two congressional districts. The 1st District, covering the coastal south including Portland and the Augusta-Lewiston area, votes Democratic. The 2nd District, covering the larger but less populous interior and far north, votes Republican. The 2nd District is one of only two congressional districts in the country to have voted Republican for president in every cycle since 2016 while also electing a Democratic House member (the seat is held by Democrat Jared Golden). Maine's rural Democratic tradition, rooted in fishing and small-farming communities, has weakened sharply since 2016.
The state's distinct political culture, anchored in town-meeting democracy and a strong streak of regional independence, has produced an unusual concentration of independent and crossover voters. Maine's ranked-choice voting system (used since 2018 for federal elections) reflects this independence. The state has 4 electoral votes total, allocated as 1 to each congressional district plus 2 statewide. Maine has voted to award one of its electoral votes to the Republican candidate in three consecutive presidential elections, the first state to consistently split its votes since the system was adopted in 1972.
Will Maine stay competitive? The statewide presidential race is no longer close, but the 2nd District remains genuinely competitive at the presidential level and is one of the most-watched single electoral votes in the country. The 2026 gubernatorial race to replace Mills and Susan Collins's eventual departure (she is 73 and has not committed to running again) will determine whether Maine's Republican strength survives Collins's career. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Maine Governor Betting Odds
Term limits are why Janet Mills is leaving the governor's office in January 2027, which means more Election Odds for the race. Mills, the former Maine Attorney General and first woman elected governor of the state, won 2018 by 8 points and re-elected in 2022 by 13. Maine's two-term constitutional limit prevents her from seeking a third consecutive term, a constraint that became politically relevant in October 2025 when she launched a Senate campaign against Collins, and again in late April 2026 when she suspended that campaign and left both her gubernatorial term-limit and the Senate path behind.
Democratic primary (June 9, 2026), the de facto general election: U.S. Rep. Jared Golden (ME-2, serving since 2019), the Blue Dog Democrat who has held a Trump-district seat through three cycles. He represents the more conservative half of the state and would be a centrist Democratic nominee. Troy Jackson, former state Senate president, the labor-aligned progressive option. Shenna Bellows, current Secretary of State, known nationally for her 2023 ruling that disqualified Trump from the Maine primary ballot under the 14th Amendment (later overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court).
Republican primary: No major figure has declared. Maine has not elected a Republican governor since Paul LePage's 2010 and 2014 wins. The general election dynamics favor whoever wins the Democratic primary, but Maine's ranked-choice voting system and split electorate make the margin difficult to predict. Cook rates Likely Democratic. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Maine Governor Election History
Maine's governorship reflects the state's independent streak and ticket-splitting habits. Independent Angus King held the office from 1995 to 2003, followed by Democrat John Baldacci, then Republican Paul LePage from 2011 to 2019, the last Republican to win the office. Democrat Janet Mills, the state's first woman governor, won in 2018 and 2022.
Mills is term-limited under Maine's two-term constitutional cap, making 2026 an open race whose decisive contest is the Democratic primary. The field includes ME-2 Rep. Jared Golden, former state Senate president Troy Jackson, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows. No major Republican has declared, and Cook rates the race Likely Democratic.
Maine Senate Betting Odds
The race that could decide Senate control. Susan Collins, in her fifth term, is the longest-serving woman in Senate history and the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. She has won every cycle since 1996, even when the Maine presidential vote went Democratic, through a brand of bipartisanship that has produced increasingly thin margins. Her favorability is now underwater (38% favorable, 57% unfavorable in March 2026 Emerson polling).
Democratic primary (June 9, 2026): Graham Platner, an oyster farmer from Penobscot Bay, has effectively cleared the field after Mills's April suspension. Platner won endorsements from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, built a small-dollar grassroots fundraising operation, and represents a generational and ideological break from the institutional Democratic Senate playbook. His vulnerabilities, old Reddit posts including comments downplaying sexual assault, criticism of police and rural Americans, were the central Mills campaign attack and will become the central Republican attack in the general election.
Emerson polling (March 2026): Platner leads Collins 52-35 among women. Collins's overall favorability: 38/57. Maine uses ranked-choice voting in federal elections, which historically benefits non-Republican candidates in close races. The 2024 election was the first in which Maine had ranked-choice voting at the presidential level. Cook rates the race a toss-up. National Democratic strategy treats this as the single most important Senate race of 2026. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Senate primary
Maine U.S. Senate Election History
Maine's Senate seats are split between Republican Susan Collins, in office since 1997, and independent Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats. Collins has survived every cycle since 1996 through a bipartisan brand, most strikingly in 2020 when she won by more than 8 points even as Joe Biden carried the state, one of the great ticket-splitting performances in modern Senate history.
Her 2026 race, with her favorability underwater, is rated a toss-up and treated by national Democrats as the single most important Senate contest of the cycle, since she is the only Republican senator from a Harris state. Her likely opponent is populist oyster farmer Graham Platner, who cleared the Democratic field after Governor Mills suspended her own campaign.
Maine House Betting Odds
Jared Golden's decision to run for governor leaves ME-2 open and immediately moves it onto every national list of competitive 2026 House races. The district covers northern and rural Maine, voted Trump+9 in 2024, and is currently held by a Democrat only because Golden's centrist Blue Dog brand has held the rural working-class electorate. National Democrats and Republicans are both heavily targeting ME-2.
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree, southern Maine including Portland) is safely Democratic, Pingree has held the seat since 2009 and won 2024 by 18 points. Maine uses ranked-choice voting for House elections. No mid-decade redistricting. Primary June 9, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
Maine U.S. House Election History
Maine's two House seats mirror its districts: the coastal, southern ME-1 is reliably Democratic, while the rural, northern ME-2 is the most competitive in New England. ME-2 has voted Republican for president every cycle since 2016 yet kept electing Democrat Jared Golden, a Blue Dog whose centrist brand held the working-class electorate.
Golden's 2026 run for governor leaves ME-2 open and a top national target for both parties. ME-1, held by Chellie Pingree since 2009, is safely Democratic, she won by 18 points in 2024. Maine uses ranked-choice voting in House races and did not pursue mid-decade redistricting.
Maine Presidential Election Betting Odds
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that split electoral votes by congressional district, and ME-2 has flipped between the parties in three of the last four presidential cycles. Harris won Maine statewide by 7 points in 2024, but Trump won ME-2 (the 2nd congressional district, rural and northern Maine) by 9 points, giving Trump one of Maine's 4 electoral votes through the state's congressional-district allocation system. Cook PVI rates Maine D+2 statewide. ME-2 is R+6.
The state's 2 at-large electoral votes are Likely Democratic. The 2nd district's 1 electoral vote is Lean Republican. For 2028, that ME-2 electoral vote is a competitive target for both parties, Trump carried it in 2016, lost it in 2020, and won it again in 2024.
Maine Presidential Election History
Maine has voted Democratic statewide in every presidential election since 1992, but it is one of only two states, with Nebraska, that splits its electoral votes by congressional district. That system has turned the rural, northern ME-2 into a recurring battleground.
Statewide margins have ranged from Obama's double-digit wins to closer results, with Harris carrying the state by 7 points in 2024. But Trump won ME-2 in 2016, 2020 he lost it, and won it again in 2024, taking one electoral vote each Republican cycle. Cook rates the state D+2 statewide while ME-2 is R+6, and that single district vote remains one of the most-watched in the country.
Maine Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Maine politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Maine Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Maine's races, headlined by the Senate contest that could decide chamber control. Republican Susan Collins, the only GOP senator from a Harris state, faces populist Graham Platner, who cleared the Democratic field after Gov. Janet Mills suspended her campaign. The open governor's race, effectively decided in the Democratic primary, includes Rep. Jared Golden, whose exit opens the competitive ME-2 House seat.
Maine uses ranked-choice voting in federal races, which historically helps non-Republicans in close contests, so first-round numbers can understate the eventual result. Cook rates the Senate race a toss-up. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Maine governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | May 28 – June 3, 2026 | 484 | Shenna Bellows 11% · Troy Jackson 20% · Angus King III 14% · Hannah Pingree 19% · Nirav Shah 25% · Undecided 11% |
| SurveyUSA | May 28 – June 3, 2026 | 466 (LV) | Jonathan Bush 17% · Robert Charles 34% · David Jones 2% · James Libby 0% · Garrett Mason 10% · Owen McCarthy 7% · Ben Midgley 11% · Robert Wessels 2% · Undecided 18% |
| University of New Hampshire | May 21–25, 2026 | 595 (LV) | Shenna Bellows 13% · Troy Jackson 28% · Angus King III 7% · Hannah Pingree 12% · Nirav Shah 28% · Other 1% · Undecided 11% |
| University of New Hampshire | May 21–25, 2026 | 465 (LV) | Jonathan Bush 18% · Robert Charles 37% · David Jones 7% · Garrett Mason 9% · Owen McCarthy 2% · Ben Midgley 11% · Robert Wessels 6% · Other 0% · Undecided 9% |
| Impact Research | May 19–21, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Shenna Bellows 15% · Troy Jackson 24% · Angus King III 9% · Hannah Pingree 16% · Nirav Shah 32% · Undecided 4% |
| Pan Atlantic Research | May 8–18, 2026 | 402 (LV) | Shenna Bellows 10% · Troy Jackson 12% · Angus King III 24% · Hannah Pingree 9% · Nirav Shah 29% · Undecided 16% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Maine gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 17 minutes ago.
Maine U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | May 13 – June 16, 2026 | Susan Collins (R) 43.8% · Graham Platner (D) 48.3% · Other/Undecided 7.9% | |
| Race to the WH | February 4 – June 14, 2026 | Susan Collins (R) 44.3% · Graham Platner (D) 47.9% · Other/Undecided 7.8% | |
| Wick (R)/2WAY | June 11–14, 2026 | 1,008 (LV) | Susan Collins (R) 45% · Graham Platner (D) 48% · Undecided 7% |
| 270toWin | April 3 – June 12, 2026 | Susan Collins (R) 44% · Graham Platner (D) 48.8% · Other/Undecided 7.2% | |
| Quantus Insights (R) | June 9–11, 2026 | 870 (LV) | Susan Collins (R) 45% · Graham Platner (D) 46% · Other 2% · Undecided 7% |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | June 8, 2026 | 497 (LV) | Susan Collins (R) 44% · Graham Platner (D) 43% · Undecided 13% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Maine under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 17 minutes ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Maine a red state or a blue state?
Maine is a Democratic-leaning state with significant rural Republican strength and a split electoral-vote system. Harris won it statewide by 7 points in 2024, but Trump carried the rural ME-2 district for a third straight time. Cook PVI rates the state D+2 statewide while ME-2 is R+6.
Why is the Maine Senate race so important?
Susan Collins is the only Republican senator from a state Harris won, making her seat potentially decisive for Senate control. Her 2026 race is rated a toss-up, with her favorability underwater, and she likely faces populist Graham Platner, who cleared the Democratic field after Gov. Mills suspended her campaign.
Who is running for Maine governor in 2026?
With Janet Mills term-limited, the decisive Democratic primary includes Rep. Jared Golden, former state Senate president Troy Jackson, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows. No major Republican has declared. Cook rates the open race Likely Democratic.
Which Maine House seat is competitive?
ME-2, the rural northern district, now open because Democrat Jared Golden is running for governor. It voted Trump+9 in 2024 and is a top target for both parties. ME-1, held by Democrat Chellie Pingree, is safely Democratic.