Minnesota Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Five months ago, the Minnesota ballot was set. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee, was running for a third term as governor. Senator Tina Smith had already announced her retirement. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig were locked in a Democratic Senate primary to succeed Smith. Then Walz withdrew. Then Senator Amy Klobuchar entered the governor's race. Then federal immigration enforcement agents fatally shot two people in Minneapolis. Then a former state House speaker was assassinated. The political map that Minnesota Democrats were navigating in October bears almost no resemblance to the one they're running on now. The August 11 primary will produce nominees for an open governor's race and an open Senate seat — both of which Republicans see as the best chance in a generation to break Minnesota's 20-year statewide drought. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Minnesota governor betting odds

Walz announced on January 5, 2026 that he would not seek a third term. The decision came amid heightened federal scrutiny of Minnesota's child care and welfare programs and what he called "political gamesmanship" complicating his work. He was the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee on a Harris-Walz ticket that lost Minnesota by only 4.3 points after winning it by 7 in 2020.

Senator Amy Klobuchar entered the race on January 29, 2026 — 24 days after Walz's withdrawal. She won 72% of the DFL caucus straw poll on February 3 and has effectively cleared the Democratic field. Klobuchar was re-elected to the Senate in 2024 by nearly 16 points, outperforming Harris by 135,000 votes. She is not required to resign to run; if she wins the governorship in November, she could appoint her own Senate successor. State Attorney General Keith Ellison declined to run in early January. No other major Democrat has entered.

The Republican primary is crowded. The leading candidates: Scott Jensen, the former state senator who lost to Walz in 2022; Mike Lindell, the MyPillow CEO and Trump ally; state House Speaker Lisa Demuth; state Rep. Kristin Robbins; businessman Kendall Qualls. Minneapolis attorney Chris Madel is also in. Republicans have not won a Minnesota statewide election since Tim Pawlenty's 2006 gubernatorial re-election — 20 years ago. Primary August 11, 2026.

Minnesota presidential election betting odds

Minnesota is the longest-running Democratic streak in presidential politics — the only state Walter Mondale carried in 1984 and Democratic in every election since. The 2024 result kept the streak alive at 13 consecutive cycles. But Harris's 4.3-point margin was the closest Democratic win in Minnesota since 1984, and the state's working-class realignment, particularly in the Iron Range and the Twin Cities exurbs, makes it more competitive than the historical record suggests.

Cook PVI rates Minnesota D+1 — effectively a swing state on paper. The 2028 presidential markets are pricing it accordingly. If Klobuchar wins the governor's race, she joins a small group of 2028 Democratic primary contenders with both a presidential primary run already behind them (she ran in 2020) and a fresh executive office to point to.

Minnesota senate betting odds

Smith announced in February 2025 that she would not seek a second full term. (She was appointed in 2018 to succeed Al Franken, won the special election that year, won the full term in 2020.) Her decision opened the marquee Senate primary on the DFL side.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan entered in February 2025 and has run as a progressive — backed by Warren's network, EMILYs List, and the labor-progressive wing of the DFL. U.S. Rep. Angie Craig (MN-2) entered shortly after and has run as the more moderate option, with backing from centrist Senate Democrats including Cortez Masto. The race was already expensive before Walz's withdrawal and Klobuchar's gubernatorial bid scrambled the broader DFL calendar; both Flanagan and Craig stayed in. Neither has been swayed by the Klobuchar-could-appoint-her-successor dynamic that potentially looms over the Senate seat Klobuchar holds.

The Republican primary is smaller. No major candidate has emerged. The GOP nominee will face whichever Democrat wins August 11. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002. Cook rates Likely Democratic — but the state's underlying competitiveness means the race could tighten significantly in October.

Minnesota house betting odds

Minnesota's eight House districts are evenly split, 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Two seats are open: MN-2 (Angie Craig's seat in suburban Twin Cities) because Craig is running for Senate, and MN-3 (the seat Dean Phillips vacated for a 2024 presidential run, currently held by Kelly Morrison, who is also being mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate but is running for House re-election). MN-2 is the most competitive open seat — a true swing district that has changed hands multiple times in the last decade.

State context surrounding the 2026 cycle: former state House Speaker Melissa Hortman was assassinated (an event referenced in Klobuchar's campaign launch). Federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol agents fatally shot two people in Minneapolis in January and February 2026 — Renée Nicole Good, age 37, and Alex Pretti, age 37 — triggering large protests and putting Minnesota in the national spotlight as a focal point of the Trump administration's immigration enforcement push. The state political environment heading into the August primary is more volatile than at any point since 2020.

No mid-decade redistricting in Minnesota.