2026 Election Tracker
Minnesota Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Minnesota 2026 election odds for the open governor race after Walz withdrew, Amy Klobuchar's gubernatorial run, the open Senate seat, and 8 House contests.
| Electoral votes | 10 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 51% / Trump 47% (D+4.3 margin) |
| Current governor | Tim Walz (DFL), withdrew from re-election January 5, 2026 |
| U.S. senators | Amy Klobuchar (DFL, running for governor; seat next 2030), Tina Smith (DFL, retiring) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), U.S. Senate (open), all 8 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+1 |
Five months ago, the Minnesota ballot was set. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee, was running for a third term as governor. Senator Tina Smith had already announced her retirement. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig were locked in a Democratic Senate primary to succeed Smith. Then Walz withdrew. Then Senator Amy Klobuchar entered the governor's race. Then federal immigration enforcement agents fatally shot two people in Minneapolis. Then a former state House speaker was assassinated. The political map that Minnesota Democrats were navigating in October bears almost no resemblance to the one they're running on now. The August 11 primary will produce nominees for an open governor's race and an open Senate seat, both of which Republicans see as the best chance in a generation to break Minnesota's 20-year statewide drought. Our team at ElectionOdds.com covers the races for all of these Minnesota elections and has Election Odds for all of them. Enjoy.
Is Minnesota a Red State or a Blue State?
Minnesota is a Democratic-leaning state, but one that has grown markedly more competitive. Harris carried Minnesota by 4.3 points in 2024, after Biden won it by 7 in 2020. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1976, the longest active Democratic streak in the country, but the 2024 margin was the closest Democratic win in the state since 1984. Cook PVI rates Minnesota D+1, effectively a swing state on paper.
The downballot picture is Democratic but no longer dominant. The DFL (Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor party) holds the governorship under Tim Walz, both U.S. Senate seats (Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith), and 4 of 8 U.S. House seats. But Republicans have made gains in the Iron Range and the Twin Cities exurbs, and the state legislature has been closely divided. Republicans have not won a Minnesota statewide election since Tim Pawlenty's 2006 gubernatorial re-election, a 20-year drought, but they view the open 2026 governor and Senate races as their best opportunity in a generation to break it.
Minnesota's voting pattern is built on the Twin Cities, the Iron Range, and the rural areas. Hennepin County (Minneapolis) and Ramsey County (St. Paul) vote heavily Democratic and provide the bulk of the DFL vote. The Twin Cities suburbs have shifted Democratic over the past decade. The Iron Range in the northeast, historically a DFL stronghold built on mining and labor, has shifted sharply toward Republicans since 2016, one of the most dramatic working-class realignments in the country. The rural counties of southern and western Minnesota vote Republican by large margins.
The state's politics have been shaped by its strong labor tradition, its high voter turnout (consistently the highest or near-highest in the country), and the recent erosion of the DFL's historic advantage among working-class and rural voters. Minnesota has 10 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Minnesota stay Democratic? At the presidential level, narrowly, but the trend lines have Republicans encouraged. The 4.3-point 2024 margin and the continued rightward shift in the Iron Range and exurbs make Minnesota more competitive than its unbroken Democratic streak suggests. The open 2026 races for governor and Senate will test whether Republicans can finally break through after 20 years. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Minnesota Governor Betting Odds
Walz announced on January 5, 2026 that he would not seek a third term. The decision came amid heightened federal scrutiny of Minnesota's child care and welfare programs and what he called "political gamesmanship" complicating his work. He was the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee on a Harris-Walz ticket that lost Minnesota by only 4.3 points after winning it by 7 in 2020.
Senator Amy Klobuchar entered the race on January 29, 2026, 24 days after Walz's withdrawal. She won 72% of the DFL caucus straw poll on February 3 and has effectively cleared the Democratic field. Klobuchar was re-elected to the Senate in 2024 by nearly 16 points, outperforming Harris by 135,000 votes. She is not required to resign to run; if she wins the governorship in November, she could appoint her own Senate successor. State Attorney General Keith Ellison declined to run in early January. No other major Democrat has entered.
The Republican primary is crowded. The leading candidates: Scott Jensen, the former state senator who lost to Walz in 2022; Mike Lindell, the MyPillow CEO and Trump ally; state House Speaker Lisa Demuth; state Rep. Kristin Robbins; businessman Kendall Qualls. Minneapolis attorney Chris Madel is also in. Republicans have not won a Minnesota statewide election since Tim Pawlenty's 2006 gubernatorial re-election, 20 years ago. Primary August 11, 2026. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
2 marketsMinnesota Governor Election History
Minnesota's governorship has been a DFL hold for over a decade, but the office has a colorful recent past. Independence Party candidate and former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura won a stunning upset in 1998, Republican Tim Pawlenty followed with two terms beginning in 2003, and his narrow 2006 re-election remains the last time a Republican won any statewide race in Minnesota. DFL Governor Mark Dayton served two terms, and Tim Walz won in 2018 and 2022.
Walz, the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee, declined to seek a third term in January 2026, opening the race. Senator Amy Klobuchar quickly entered and cleared the DFL field, winning 72 percent of the caucus straw poll. She faces a crowded Republican primary including Scott Jensen and Mike Lindell. Republicans see the open seat as their best chance in 20 years to end the statewide drought, though the DFL remains favored.
Minnesota Senate Betting Odds
Smith announced in February 2025 that she would not seek a second full term. (She was appointed in 2018 to succeed Al Franken, won the special election that year, won the full term in 2020.) Her decision opened the marquee Senate primary on the DFL side.
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan entered in February 2025 and has run as a progressive, backed by Warren's network, EMILYs List, and the labor-progressive wing of the DFL. U.S. Rep. Angie Craig (MN-2) entered shortly after and has run as the more moderate option, with backing from centrist Senate Democrats including Cortez Masto. The race was already expensive before Walz's withdrawal and Klobuchar's gubernatorial bid scrambled the broader DFL calendar; both Flanagan and Craig stayed in. Neither has been swayed by the Klobuchar-could-appoint-her-successor dynamic that potentially looms over the Senate seat Klobuchar holds.
The Republican primary is smaller. No major candidate has emerged. The GOP nominee will face whichever Democrat wins August 11. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002. Cook rates Likely Democratic, but the state's underlying competitiveness means the race could tighten significantly in October. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Minnesota U.S. Senate Election History
Minnesota's Senate seats have been DFL-held since 2009, after a stretch that included the 2002 death of Senator Paul Wellstone days before the election and Al Franken's razor-thin 2008 win decided by a months-long recount. Amy Klobuchar has held one seat comfortably since 2006, and Tina Smith took the other in 2018 after Franken's resignation.
Smith's retirement opened the 2026 seat, setting up a DFL primary between progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and moderate Rep. Angie Craig. Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, the longest such streak alongside the governorship drought, and Cook rates the race Likely Democratic, though the state's underlying competitiveness could tighten it in the fall.
Minnesota House Betting Odds
Minnesota's eight House districts are evenly split, 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Two seats are open: MN-2 (Angie Craig's seat in suburban Twin Cities) because Craig is running for Senate, and MN-3 (the seat Dean Phillips vacated for a 2024 presidential run, currently held by Kelly Morrison, who is also being mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate but is running for House re-election). MN-2 is the most competitive open seat, a true swing district that has changed hands multiple times in the last decade.
State context surrounding the 2026 cycle: former state House Speaker Melissa Hortman was assassinated (an event referenced in Klobuchar's campaign launch). Federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol agents fatally shot two people in Minneapolis in January and February 2026, Renée Nicole Good, age 37, and Alex Pretti, age 37, triggering large protests and putting Minnesota in the national spotlight as a focal point of the Trump administration's immigration enforcement push. The state political environment heading into the August primary is more volatile than at any point since 2020. No mid-decade redistricting in Minnesota. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
7 marketsMinnesota U.S. House Election History
Minnesota's eight-seat delegation has been evenly divided, 4-4, reflecting the state's closely balanced politics. The competitive seats cluster in the Twin Cities suburbs and the swingy southern districts, while the rural west and the increasingly Republican Iron Range and the urban core anchor the partisan ends.
The 2026 cycle opened two seats: MN-2, the genuine swing district Angie Craig is leaving to run for Senate, and MN-3, the suburban seat Dean Phillips vacated for his 2024 presidential bid, now held by Democrat Kelly Morrison. MN-2 is the marquee race, a district that has changed hands repeatedly. Minnesota uses a court-drawn map and is not part of the mid-decade redistricting wave, so the competition runs through these swing suburbs rather than through new lines.
Minnesota Presidential Election Betting Odds
Minnesota is the longest-running Democratic streak in presidential politics, the only state Walter Mondale carried in 1984 and Democratic in every election since. The 2024 result kept the streak alive at 13 consecutive cycles. But Harris's 4.3-point margin was the closest Democratic win in Minnesota since 1984, and the state's working-class realignment, particularly in the Iron Range and the Twin Cities exurbs, makes it more competitive than the historical record suggests. Cook PVI rates Minnesota D+1, effectively a swing state on paper. The 2028 presidential markets are pricing it accordingly.
If Klobuchar wins the governor's race, she joins a small group of 2028 Democratic primary contenders with both a presidential primary run already behind them (she ran in 2020) and a fresh executive office to point to.
Minnesota Presidential Election History
Minnesota holds the longest active Democratic presidential streak in the country. It was famously the only state Walter Mondale carried in 1984 against Ronald Reagan's landslide, and it has voted Democratic in every election since 1976, now 13 consecutive cycles, never flipping even as neighboring Wisconsin and Iowa did.
But the streak has grown thinner. Harris won by 4.3 points in 2024, the closest Democratic margin since 1984, as the Iron Range and Twin Cities exurbs continued their sharp working-class shift toward Republicans. Cook PVI now rates Minnesota D+1, effectively a swing state on paper, and the 2028 markets price its 10 electoral votes as genuinely contestable rather than safely blue.
Minnesota Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Minnesota politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Minnesota Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Minnesota's open races. In the governor's race, Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar has cleared the DFL field and faces a crowded Republican primary led by Scott Jensen and Mike Lindell. In the open Senate race, the DFL primary pits progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan against moderate Rep. Angie Craig.
Minnesota's lean is genuinely narrowing, so watch the Iron Range and the Twin Cities exurbs, the regions driving the state's working-class realignment. Klobuchar, who outran the 2024 presidential ticket by 135,000 votes, starts as a strong favorite for governor. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Minnesota governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KSTP/Survey USA | June 11-16, 2026 | 450 (LV) | Lisa Demuth 22% · Mike Lindell 27% · Kendall Qualls 17% · Other 10% · Undecided 24% |
| Minnesota Star Tribune | June 8–10, 2026 | 800 (LV) | Amy Klobuchar (DFL) 48% · Lisa Demuth (R) 40% · Undecided 12% |
| Minnesota Star Tribune | June 8–10, 2026 | 800 (LV) | Amy Klobuchar (DFL) 53% · Mike Lindell (R) 36% · Undecided 11% |
| Big Data Poll (R) | May 18–20, 2026 | 512 (LV) | Lisa Demuth 19% · Mike Lindell 21% · Kendall Qualls 9% · Other 12% · Undecided 39% |
| Emerson College | February 6–8, 2026 | 1,000 (LV) | Amy Klobuchar (DFL) 51% · Lisa Demuth (R) 38% · Undecided 11% |
| Emerson College | February 6–8, 2026 | 1,000 (LV) | Amy Klobuchar (DFL) 53% · Mike Lindell (R) 31% · Undecided 16% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 2 hours ago.
Minnesota U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | June 11–16, 2026 | 513 (LV) | Angie Craig 41% · Peggy Flanagan 36% · Other 6% · Undecided 18% |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | June 11–16, 2026 | 450 (LV) | Adam Schwarze 7% · Michele Tafoya 36% · Tom Weiler 7% · Royce White 15% · Other 27% · Undecided 8% |
| GQR (D) | May 31 – June 3, 2026 | 500 (LV) | Angie Craig 38% · Peggy Flanagan 55% · Undecided 7% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | May 26–28, 2026 | 600 (LV) | Angie Craig 43% · Peggy Flanagan 42% · Undecided 13% |
| Impact Research (D) | May 26–28, 2026 | 808 (LV) | Angie Craig (DFL) 51% · Michele Tafoya (R) 44% · Undecided 7% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | May 6–9, 2026 | 663 (LV) | Adam Schwarze 4% · Michele Tafoya 52% · Tom Weiler 2% · Royce White 9% · Other 6% · Undecided 27% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 2 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Minnesota a red state or a blue state?
Minnesota is a Democratic-leaning state that has grown markedly more competitive. It holds the longest active Democratic presidential streak in the country, but Harris won by just 4.3 points in 2024, the closest since 1984, and Cook PVI rates it D+1, effectively a swing state on paper.
Why are both the governor and a Senate seat open in 2026?
Governor Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee, declined to seek a third term in January 2026, and Senator Tina Smith is retiring. Senator Amy Klobuchar then entered the governor's race, scrambling the DFL field. Republicans see both open seats as their best chance in 20 years.
Who is favored in the Minnesota governor race?
Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar, who cleared the DFL field with 72 percent of the caucus straw poll and won her 2024 Senate race by nearly 16 points, is the favorite. She faces a crowded Republican primary, but Republicans have not won statewide in Minnesota since 2006.
Is the Minnesota Senate race competitive?
Cook rates it Likely Democratic. The DFL primary pits progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan against moderate Rep. Angie Craig, and Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, but the state's underlying competitiveness means the race could tighten in October.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.