2026 Election Tracker
Nevada Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Nevada 2026 election odds for the tied Lombardo-Ford governor race, the swing NV-3 House district, and the new lieutenant governor cycle, plus Nevada history.
| Electoral votes | 6 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 51% / Harris 47% (R+3 margin) |
| Current governor | Joe Lombardo (R), running for re-election |
| U.S. senators | Catherine Cortez Masto (D, next 2028), Jacky Rosen (D, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, all 4 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+1 |
The governor's race in Nevada is one of about three genuine toss-ups on the 2026 map nationally. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is seeking a second term against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. December polling had them tied at 41-41. The same polling had both Nevada Democratic senators, Cortez Masto and Rosen, with net negative approval, though neither is on the 2026 ballot. The lieutenant governor's race, normally an afterthought, matters this cycle because if Lombardo wins and then runs against Cortez Masto in 2028, a Democratic Lt. Gov. would inherit the governorship. House delegation: 3 Democrats and 1 Republican, with Susie Lee's NV-3 the most competitive seat. Trump won Nevada in 2024, the first Republican presidential candidate to carry the state since 2004. Primary June 9. If you want election odds for any other US election odds then just look around, otherwise you will find all of the Nevada election odds below on ElectionOdds.com.
Is Nevada a Red State or a Blue State?
Nevada is a swing state with a Democratic lean that has been eroding. Democrats have won the past five presidential elections in Nevada, but four of those came by less than 3 points, and the 2024 result was the closest yet. Trump carried Nevada by 3.1 points in 2024, his first Nevada win, after losing it by 2.4 in 2020 and 2.4 in 2016. Cook PVI rates Nevada R+1, the first Republican-leaning PVI Nevada has had since the Cook ratings began in the 1990s.
The downballot picture has shifted toward Republicans. Republican Joe Lombardo holds the governorship after winning by 1.4 points in 2022. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto, both up after 2028) and a 2-1 majority in the U.S. House delegation. Democrats also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The 2026 cycle's main competitive race is the U.S. House district held by Susie Lee, which is consistently rated a tossup.
Nevada's voting pattern is concentrated in Clark County, which contains Las Vegas and roughly 73% of the state's population. Clark votes Democratic, anchored by the Las Vegas Strip's heavily Latino workforce and the state's powerful Culinary Union, which has historically driven Democratic turnout. Washoe County (Reno) is the state's second-largest and is genuinely competitive, often deciding statewide elections. The rural counties (sometimes called "the cow counties") vote Republican by overwhelming margins but are not large enough to swing statewide results without help from Washoe.
The Culinary Union's recent troubles, including a 2024 strike that ended without endorsement of the Harris campaign and broader Latino-male shifts toward Republicans, have weakened the Democratic firewall in Clark County. Trump's 2024 improvement among Latino voters was sharper in Nevada than in any swing state outside Arizona. Nevada has 6 electoral votes through 2030, a small but consistent battleground prize.
Will Nevada stay competitive? Yes, though the trend line is concerning for Democrats. The Latino vote, the Culinary Union's organizing capacity, and the growth of Republican-leaning retirees in the suburbs of Las Vegas are all pulling against the traditional Democratic coalition. Polymarket prices Nevada as one of the most competitive 2028 presidential states, with the Republican price slightly above 50% in recent trading. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Nevada Governor Betting Odds
Lombardo, the former Clark County sheriff, beat Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak in 2022 by 1.5 points, a 15,000-vote margin in a state where COVID lockdowns had hurt the Democratic brand. He has spent his first term as the state's only Republican statewide officeholder against a Democratic legislature, vetoing Democratic priorities while building a reputation for moderation on social issues. His approval has fluctuated: Morning Consult had him at 53% in mid-2025, Emerson had him at 34% by December.
Aaron Ford, the state attorney general since 2019, is the Democratic frontrunner. Term-limited as AG, he's positioned himself as Nevada's most aggressive legal antagonist of the Trump administration, joining numerous multi-state lawsuits since January 2025. Cortez Masto endorsed him over Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill in July 2025, effectively clearing the Dem primary. Steve Sisolak briefly considered a comeback bid but did not file.
The polling tells the story. December 2025 Emerson: Lombardo 41%, Ford 41%, undecided 18%. Lombardo had an 8-point lead among independents but 40% were undecided. Ford led among Hispanic voters by 16 points. Cook rates the race a toss-up; Kalshi has placed it among the top five closest gubernatorial contests of 2026. The under-the-radar race: lieutenant governor, where Republican incumbent Stavros Anthony faces a Democratic primary including Assembly Majority Leader Sandra Jauregui (endorsed by Ford). If Lombardo wins and later runs for Senate in 2028, the Harry Reid-Brian Sandoval scenario from 2014, the Lt. Gov.'s party determines who inherits the governorship. Primary June 9, 2026. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Nevada Governor Election History
Nevada's governorship was Republican for most of the past quarter-century. Democrat Bob Miller served through 1999, after which Republicans Kenny Guinn, Jim Gibbons, and Brian Sandoval held the office for nearly two decades. Democrat Steve Sisolak broke the streak in 2018, then in 2022 became the only incumbent Democratic governor in the country to lose, falling to Republican Joe Lombardo by 1.5 points.
Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, has governed as the state's lone Republican statewide officeholder against a Democratic legislature. His 2026 re-election against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford is one of the closest races in the country, tied at 41-41 in December polling and rated a toss-up. The lieutenant governor's race carries unusual weight because of the possibility Lombardo runs for Senate in 2028.
Nevada Senate Betting Odds
Nevada's two Democratic senators are both off-cycle this year. Catherine Cortez Masto, who won 2022 by 0.8 points (the closest Senate race of that cycle), is next up in 2028. Jacky Rosen, who won re-election in 2024 by 1.6 points over Sam Brown, is next up in 2030.
The 2028 Cortez Masto race is the long-range market with national implications. Her December 2025 Emerson approval was 31% positive, 42% negative, driven significantly by Democratic-base ambivalence. If Lombardo wins governor in 2026, Republican strategists view him as the strongest possible 2028 challenger. The Sandoval scenario from 2014-16, popular Republican governor declines to run for Senate, is the alternative. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
Nevada U.S. Senate Election History
Nevada's Senate seats have produced some of the closest races in the country. Catherine Cortez Masto, who succeeded longtime Democratic leader Harry Reid in 2016, won re-election in 2022 by just 0.8 points, the tightest Senate race of that cycle. Jacky Rosen, elected in 2018 over Republican Dean Heller, won a second term in 2024 by 1.6 points.
Neither seat is on the 2026 ballot, Cortez Masto is up in 2028 and Rosen in 2030. The 2028 race already draws national attention: if Governor Lombardo wins re-election, Republicans see him as their strongest possible challenger to Cortez Masto, echoing the long-discussed scenario of a popular Nevada governor moving up to the Senate.
Nevada House Betting Odds
The Nevada delegation is 3 Democrats to 1 Republican. The Republican is Mark Amodei (NV-2, rural northern Nevada and Reno), in his eighth term, safely incumbent in a Trump+8 district.
The competitive seat is NV-3 (Susie Lee, Las Vegas suburbs), which Lee has held since 2018. She won 2024 by 5 points in a district that's roughly even on partisan lean. Republicans are targeting Lee aggressively in 2026; she has held the seat through multiple competitive cycles but the district shifted toward Trump in 2024. NV-1 (Dina Titus, Las Vegas) and NV-4 (Steven Horsford, North Las Vegas and rural eastern Nevada) are safer Democratic but neither is in the safest tier. Horsford's NV-4 has trended Republican along with the broader rural Latino shift.
No mid-decade redistricting in Nevada, the state uses a commission-based process and has not initiated any redraw in the post-Callais environment. Primary June 9, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
4 marketsNevada U.S. House Election History
Nevada's four-seat delegation has been 3-1 Democratic under a map Democrats drew after the 2020 census, spreading Las Vegas's Democratic voters across three districts while conceding the rural north to Republican Mark Amodei, now in his eighth term.
That deliberately efficient map made all three Democratic seats at least somewhat exposed. The most competitive is Susie Lee's suburban Las Vegas NV-3, a roughly even-lean district she has held since 2018 and won by 5 points in 2024, and a top Republican target in 2026. Steven Horsford's NV-4 has also trended Republican with the rural Latino shift. Nevada uses a commission-based redistricting process and stayed out of the post-Callais redraw wave.
Nevada Presidential Election Betting Odds
Trump's 2024 win in Nevada, by 3 points over Harris, was the first Republican presidential victory in the state since George W. Bush carried Nevada in 2004. Democrats had won every cycle from 2008 through 2020. The state's working-class shift, the Latino vote movement toward Trump, and weakness in Las Vegas turnout drove the change. Cook PVI rates Nevada D+1, among the most competitive presidential states. For 2028, the 6 electoral votes are a genuine toss-up.
Both Cortez Masto and Rosen, despite their underwater approval ratings, are not on the 2026 ballot but will face presidential-year electorates in 2028 and 2030 respectively. If Lombardo wins re-election in 2026, he immediately becomes the top Republican Senate recruit against Cortez Masto in 2028.
Nevada Presidential Election History
Nevada was a reliable presidential bellwether for decades and leaned Democratic from 2008 through 2020, though usually by thin margins, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden each carried it by about 2.4 points. Before that, George W. Bush won it in 2004.
That Democratic streak ended in 2024, when Trump carried the state by about 3 points, his first Nevada win, powered by gains among Latino and working-class voters and soft Las Vegas turnout. Cook PVI now rates Nevada R+1, its first Republican-leaning rating in the Cook era, and its 6 electoral votes are a genuine toss-up heading into 2028.
Nevada Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Nevada politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Nevada Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Nevada's races, headlined by one of the country's closest governor contests. Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford were tied at 41-41 in December Emerson polling, with Lombardo leading independents and Ford leading Hispanic voters. The one competitive House race is NV-3, where Democrat Susie Lee defends a roughly even-lean suburban Las Vegas seat. There is no Senate race this cycle.
Nevada is a genuine swing state, so these numbers move, watch the Lombardo-Ford margin, the independent split, and turnout signals from Clark County's Latino and Culinary Union base. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Nevada governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) | May 5–11, 2026 | 700 (LV) | Joe Lombardo (R) 45% · Aaron Ford (D) 42% · Other 5% · Undecided 8% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | March 10–13, 2026 | 306 (V) | Irina Hansen 4% · Joe Lombardo 60% · Matthew Winterhawk 7% · Jose Zalaya 4% · Undecided 24% |
| RealClearPolitics | November 16, 2025 – March 13, 2026 | Joe Lombardo (R) 40% · Aaron Ford (D) 39.5% · Other/Undecided 20.5% | |
| Noble Predictive Insights | March 10–13, 2026 | 845 (RV) | Joe Lombardo (R) 39% · Aaron Ford (D) 38% · Other 6% · Undecided 17% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | March 10–13, 2026 | 845 (RV) | Irina Hansen (R) 32% · Aaron Ford (D) 37% · Other 8% · Undecided 23% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | March 10–13, 2026 | 845 (RV) | Matthew Winterhawk (R) 31% · Aaron Ford (D) 37% · Other 8% · Undecided 24% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 7 minutes ago.
Nevada U.S. Senate polls
No Nevada U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Nevada a red state or a blue state?
Nevada is a swing state with an eroding Democratic lean. Democrats won five straight presidential elections there, but Trump carried it by about 3 points in 2024, his first Nevada win, and Cook PVI now rates it R+1, its first Republican-leaning rating in the Cook era.
Who is favored in the Nevada governor race?
It is essentially a toss-up. Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford were tied at 41-41 in December polling. Cook rates it a toss-up and it is among the closest gubernatorial races in the country.
Is there a Nevada Senate race in 2026?
No. Both seats are held by Democrats and both are off-cycle, Catherine Cortez Masto is up in 2028 and Jacky Rosen in 2030. The governor's race and four House seats are the 2026 contests.
Which Nevada House seat is competitive?
NV-3, the suburban Las Vegas seat held by Democrat Susie Lee since 2018. She won by 5 points in 2024 in a roughly even-lean district, and Republicans are targeting it aggressively in 2026. The state's other seats are safer for their incumbents.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.