New Jersey Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

The New Jersey ballot in 2026 is unusually thin. Mikie Sherrill won the governor's race in November 2025 by 14 points and is barely 100 days into her term, so the marquee statewide race is over before the midterm year really begins. The only federal contest left is Senator Cory Booker's bid for a third full term — and Republicans have so far failed to recruit a credible challenger. The state's 12 House seats include several genuinely competitive races, and a closely watched special election filled Sherrill's old NJ-11 seat in April. The 2024 election delivered one of the largest pro-Trump swings in the country here, but the 2025 gubernatorial result swung back hard the other way. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

New Jersey governor betting odds

No governor race in 2026. The next New Jersey gubernatorial election is in 2029.

Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor who served four terms in the U.S. House, won the November 2025 gubernatorial election against Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 14.36 points — the largest New Jersey gubernatorial margin since 1965 and the first time since 1961 that the state has elected three consecutive governors from the same party. Trump endorsed Ciattarelli; many had expected a competitive race given New Jersey's sharp rightward swing in 2024. The result was widely read as a leading indicator for the 2026 midterms.

Sherrill was sworn in January 20, 2026 alongside Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell. Her campaign promised an electric rate freeze, property tax relief, and a more disciplined state government. Her term runs through January 2030. The size of her 2025 win combined with the timing of her inauguration positions her as an early figure in 2028 Democratic discussions.

New Jersey presidential election betting odds

New Jersey has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Harris carried the state by 6 points in 2024 — but that was a 10-point swing toward Trump from Biden's 16-point win in 2020. The 2024 result, combined with high-profile Republican wins in suburban legislative races, briefly suggested New Jersey could move into competitive territory.

Sherrill's 14-point win one year later substantially reversed the narrative. The state remains rated D+6 by Cook, and 2028 markets are pricing it as Lean to Likely Democratic but not safe in the way New York or Massachusetts are. Property taxes, the cost of utilities, and the New York and Philadelphia media markets that dominate New Jersey advertising all keep federal races more expensive and more competitive than the state's underlying demographics would suggest.

New Jersey senate betting odds

Cory Booker is running for a third full term, having first been elected in a 2013 special election after the death of Frank Lautenberg. Booker won 2014 by 13 points and 2020 by 16 points. He entered the 2026 cycle with $11.2 million cash on hand and faces no serious primary challenge — his Democratic primary opponents are Saxon Callahan, Chris Fields, Lisa McCormick, and Gregory Tomaini, none of whom have meaningful profile or fundraising.

The Republican side is the unusual part. Curtis Bashaw, the 2024 nominee who came within 10 points of Andy Kim, ruled out a 2026 run. National Republican recruiters have not landed a major candidate. The current GOP field consists of Robert Lebovics, Justin Murphy, Natalie Rivera, Richard Tabor, and Alex Zdan — none with significant elected experience. State and national Republican operatives have publicly discussed exhaustion after the 2025 gubernatorial loss and a sense that Booker is not beatable.

New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Clifford Case in 1972. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic. Primary June 2, 2026.

New Jersey house betting odds

New Jersey has 12 House seats. The delegation is 9 Democrats to 3 Republicans as of mid-May 2026, following the April 16, 2026 special election that filled the NJ-11 seat Sherrill vacated when she became governor. Democrat Analilia Mejia won that special general election.

The competitive races for the regular November 2026 election: NJ-3 (Herb Conaway, D, narrow 2024 win), NJ-7 (Tom Kean Jr., R, swing district north of Trenton), and NJ-9 (Nellie Pou, D, first-term — replaced longtime Rep. Bill Pascrell after his death in 2024). Republicans hold NJ-2 (Jeff Van Drew), NJ-4 (Chris Smith), and NJ-7. No mid-decade redistricting in New Jersey — the state uses a bipartisan commission and would need constitutional changes to redraw maps now.