2026 Election Tracker
New Jersey Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
New Jersey 2026 election odds for Sen. Cory Booker's third-term run and all 12 House districts after the post-Trump-swing recovery, plus state history.
| Electoral votes | 14 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 51% / Trump 46% (D+6 margin) |
| Current governor | Mikie Sherrill (D), sworn in January 20, 2026 |
| U.S. senators | Cory Booker (D, on 2026 ballot), Andy Kim (D, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | U.S. Senate, all 12 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+6 |
The New Jersey ballot in 2026 is unusually thin. Mikie Sherrill won the governor's race in November 2025 by 14 points and is barely into her term, so the marquee statewide race was over before the midterm year really began. The only federal contest left is Senator Cory Booker's bid for a third full term, and on June 2 he won the Democratic primary easily, taking about 89% against challenger Lawrence Hamm. Republicans nominated attorney Justin Murphy, who ran on tax cuts and spending reductions, but New Jersey has not elected a Republican senator since 1972 and the Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic. The state's 12 House seats include several genuinely competitive races, and a special election filled Sherrill's old NJ-11 seat in April. The 2024 election delivered one of the largest pro-Trump swings in the country here, but the 2025 gubernatorial result swung back hard the other way. The Election Odds below on ElectionOdds.com can help you get an idea of what is going to happen in NJ in the 2026 election.
Is New Jersey a Red State or a Blue State?
New Jersey is a Democratic state, but with a recent margin compression that has surprised analysts. Kamala Harris carried New Jersey by 5.9 points in 2024, the narrowest Democratic presidential margin in the state since 1992. Biden won it by 15.9 in 2020 and Clinton by 14 in 2016. The 2024 result reflected a Trump improvement of nearly 10 points statewide in a single cycle. Cook PVI rates New Jersey D+6. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992 but is no longer considered a safe Democratic state at the same level as Connecticut or Maryland.
The downballot picture is Democratic with notable Republican gains. Democrats hold the governorship under Mikie Sherrill, who won the 2025 race to replace term-limited Phil Murphy. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Cory Booker and Andy Kim), 9 of 12 U.S. House seats, and both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans gained ground in the 2021 and 2025 state legislative races, narrowing what had been dominant Democratic majorities. Phil Murphy's 2021 reelection by only 3.2 points was the closest New Jersey gubernatorial race since 1981 and an early warning sign of the suburban realignment that became visible nationally in 2024.
New Jersey's voting pattern is shaped by its position as a wealthy, densely populated suburban state between New York and Philadelphia. The northern counties around Newark (Essex, Hudson, Union) vote heavily Democratic, anchored by large minority populations. The Philadelphia suburbs in Camden, Burlington, and Gloucester counties vote Democratic. The central and shore counties (Monmouth, Ocean) and the rural northwestern counties (Sussex, Warren) vote Republican. The state's largest demographic shift since 2016 has been a sharp Hispanic shift toward Republicans, particularly in Hudson County's Cuban and Dominican communities. The state's politics have been complicated by the conviction of Senator Bob Menendez on federal corruption charges in 2024, which led to his resignation and the appointment that produced Andy Kim's eventual win. The 2024 cycle's Trump improvement reflected broader frustration with affordability, taxes, and immigration, all issues where New Jersey Republicans have made gains.
New Jersey has 14 electoral votes through 2030.
Will New Jersey become competitive? At the presidential level, no. The 5.9-point Harris margin still represents a comfortable Democratic win in a high-turnout year. At the state and U.S. House level, yes. Republicans are now competitive in the central and shore districts, and the 2025 gubernatorial race was decided by a smaller margin than expected. The state's recent trajectory makes it one to watch for further Republican gains in 2026 and beyond. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
New Jersey Governor Betting Odds
There is no governor race in 2026. The next New Jersey gubernatorial election is in 2029. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor who served four terms in the U.S. House, won the November 2025 gubernatorial election against Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 14.36 points, the largest New Jersey gubernatorial margin since 1965 and the first time since 1961 that the state has elected three consecutive governors from the same party. Trump endorsed Ciattarelli; many had expected a competitive race given New Jersey's sharp rightward swing in 2024. The result was widely read as a leading indicator for the 2026 midterms.
Sherrill was sworn in January 20, 2026 alongside Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell. Her campaign promised an electric rate freeze, property tax relief, and a more disciplined state government. Her term runs through January 2030. The size of her 2025 win combined with the timing of her inauguration positions her as an early figure in 2028 Democratic discussions. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
2 marketsNew Jersey Governor Election History
New Jersey's governorship has historically swung between the parties, often against the national tide, since the state holds its elections in odd years just after a presidential vote. Republican Christine Todd Whitman won in 1993 and 1997, Democrats McGreevey, Codey, and Corzine held the office through the 2000s, Republican Chris Christie won two terms beginning in 2009, and Democrat Phil Murphy followed for two terms starting in 2018. Christie remains the last Republican to win the office.
Mikie Sherrill broke a long pattern in November 2025, defeating Republican Jack Ciattarelli by more than 14 points, the largest New Jersey gubernatorial margin since 1965 and the first time since 1961 the state elected three consecutive governors of the same party. Coming a year after New Jersey's sharp rightward presidential swing, the lopsided result was read nationally as a Democratic rebound and a leading indicator for the 2026 midterms. There is no governor's race in 2026; Sherrill's term runs to 2030.
New Jersey Senate Betting Odds
Cory Booker is running for a third full term, having first been elected in a 2013 special election after the death of Frank Lautenberg. Booker won 2014 by 13 points and 2020 by 16 points. He won the June 2 Democratic primary with about 89% of the vote over activist Lawrence Hamm, who took about 11%, and enters the general election with a large financial and structural advantage.
The Republican side was the unusual part. Curtis Bashaw, the 2024 nominee who came within 10 points of Andy Kim, ruled out a 2026 run, and national Republican recruiters did not land a major candidate. Attorney Justin Murphy emerged from the June 2 Republican primary as the nominee, running on tax cuts, spending reductions, and private-sector growth, after a field that also included Robert Lebovics, Natalie Rivera, Richard Tabor, and Alex Zdan, none with significant elected experience. New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Clifford Case in 1972, and Cook rates the race Solid Democratic. See all of the election odds for senate seats here. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
New Jersey U.S. Senate Election History
New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Clifford Case in 1972, the longest such streak in the country. Democrats Frank Lautenberg and Bob Menendez held the seats for decades, and Cory Booker won a 2013 special election after Lautenberg's death, then full terms in 2014 and 2020.
The other seat turned over dramatically when Menendez was convicted on federal corruption charges in 2024 and resigned, clearing the way for Democrat Andy Kim to win it that November. Booker won renomination on June 2 and will face Republican Justin Murphy, who emerged from a primary field that lacked a major candidate after 2024 nominee Curtis Bashaw declined to run again. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic, and the markets treat the seat as safe.
New Jersey House Betting Odds
New Jersey has 12 House seats. The delegation is 9 Democrats to 3 Republicans, following the April 16, 2026 special election that filled the NJ-11 seat Sherrill vacated when she became governor, won by Democrat Analilia Mejia. The June 2 primaries set the November matchups in the competitive districts: in NJ-2, Democrat Zack Mullock won the nomination to challenge four-term Republican Jeff Van Drew, the seat Democrats consider their best pickup opportunity in the state; in NJ-3, Republican Michael McGuire, a Marine Corps veteran and former New York City police officer, won the nod to face Democratic incumbent Herb Conaway; and in the open NJ-12, Democrat Hamawy won a crowded primary to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman.
The competitive races for the regular November 2026 election: NJ-3 (Herb Conaway, D, narrow 2024 win), NJ-7 (Tom Kean Jr., R, swing district north of Trenton), and NJ-9 (Nellie Pou, D, first-term, replaced longtime Rep. Bill Pascrell after his death in 2024). Republicans hold NJ-2 (Jeff Van Drew), NJ-4 (Chris Smith), and NJ-7.
No mid-decade redistricting in New Jersey, the state uses a bipartisan commission and would need constitutional changes to redraw maps now. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
10 marketsNew Jersey U.S. House Election History
New Jersey's 12-seat delegation has leaned Democratic for years, drawn by a bipartisan redistricting commission rather than the legislature, which has kept the map relatively stable and immune to the mid-decade partisan redraws seen in Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina. The delegation has hovered around 9-3 Democratic, with Republican strength in the shore-based NJ-2, NJ-4, and the swing NJ-7.
The 2024 cycle and its aftermath reshaped several seats: Bill Pascrell's death led to first-term Democrat Nellie Pou in NJ-9, and Sherrill's move to the governorship triggered an April 2026 special election in NJ-11, won by Democrat Analilia Mejia. With the June 2 primaries complete, the competitive November races run through NJ-2, where Democrat Zack Mullock takes on Jeff Van Drew, plus NJ-3 and NJ-7, and with no redistricting possible, those swing districts are where the state's House market activity is concentrated.
New Jersey Presidential Election Betting Odds
New Jersey has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Harris carried the state by 6 points in 2024, but that was a 10-point swing toward Trump from Biden's 16-point win in 2020. The 2024 result, combined with high-profile Republican wins in suburban legislative races, briefly suggested New Jersey could move into competitive territory. Sherrill's 14-point win one year later substantially reversed the narrative.
The state remains rated D+6 by Cook, and 2028 markets are pricing it as Lean to Likely Democratic but not safe in the way New York or Massachusetts are. Property taxes, the cost of utilities, and the New York and Philadelphia media markets that dominate New Jersey advertising all keep federal races more expensive and more competitive than the state's underlying demographics would suggest.
New Jersey Presidential Election History
New Jersey was a presidential swing state through the 1980s, backing Republicans Reagan and George H.W. Bush, before realigning Democratic in 1992. It has voted Democratic in every election since, typically by comfortable double-digit margins, 15 to 18 points across the 2008 to 2020 cycles, anchored by the populous, diverse counties around Newark and the Philadelphia suburbs.
That comfort cracked in 2024, when Harris won by just 5.9 points, a nearly 10-point swing toward Trump driven by Hispanic shifts in Hudson County and broad frustration over affordability and taxes. Sherrill's 14-point 2025 win reversed much of the alarm, and the markets again price New Jersey's 14 electoral votes as Lean-to-Likely Democratic, competitive enough to watch but not a true battleground.
New Jersey Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to New Jersey politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Special Election
New Jersey Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for New Jersey's thin federal ballot. The main statewide contest is Democratic Senator Cory Booker's bid for a third term against a Republican field that has yet to produce a credible challenger. You will also see polling for the competitive House districts, including NJ-7 (Republican Tom Kean Jr.), NJ-3, and NJ-9. There is no governor's race this cycle.
New Jersey's story is the gap between its 2024 rightward swing and its 2025 Democratic rebound, so watch the shore and central counties (Monmouth, Ocean) and the Hispanic vote in Hudson County for signs of which trend holds. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
New Jersey governor polls
No New Jersey governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
New Jersey U.S. Senate polls
No New Jersey U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is New Jersey a red state or a blue state?
New Jersey is a Democratic state, though its margin compressed sharply in 2024, when Harris won by just 5.9 points after Biden's near-16-point 2020 win. Cook PVI rates it D+6, and Sherrill's 14-point 2025 governor win reaffirmed the Democratic lean.
Is there a governor race in New Jersey in 2026?
No. Democrat Mikie Sherrill won in November 2025 and was sworn in January 2026; the next gubernatorial election is 2029. The only 2026 statewide race is Senator Cory Booker's re-election, plus all 12 House seats.
Is Cory Booker's Senate seat competitive?
No. Booker is seeking a third term with a large cash advantage, and Republicans have failed to recruit a major challenger after 2024 nominee Curtis Bashaw declined to run. New Jersey has not elected a Republican senator since 1972, and Cook rates the race Solid Democratic.
Which New Jersey House seats are competitive?
NJ-3 (Herb Conaway), NJ-7 (Republican Tom Kean Jr.), and NJ-9 (first-term Nellie Pou) are the competitive November races. New Jersey uses a bipartisan redistricting commission, so no mid-decade map changes are possible.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.