2026 Election Tracker
New Mexico Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
New Mexico 2026 election odds for the open governor primary between Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman, plus all three House races including the swing NM-2 district.
| Electoral votes | 5 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 52% / Trump 46% (D+6 margin) |
| Current governor | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), term-limited |
| U.S. senators | Martin Heinrich (D, next 2030), Ben Ray Luján (D, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), all 3 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+3 |
The headline 2026 race in New Mexico is a Democratic primary featuring two political careers that don't usually overlap: a former U.S. Cabinet secretary and a current Bernalillo County district attorney. Deb Haaland, who served as Interior Secretary in the Biden administration after being the first Native American Cabinet member in U.S. history, is running for governor. Sam Bregman, the elected DA of New Mexico's most populous county, is running too. They split the Democratic establishment. Senator Heinrich endorsed Haaland; Lt. Gov. Howie Morales also ran briefly before pulling out; Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham declined to endorse anyone in the primary. Five Republicans are running for an uphill general election in a state that hasn't elected a Republican governor since 2010. Three House seats are all Democratic, with NM-2 a perennial swing district. No senate race this cycle. June 2 primary. The Election Odds on ElectionOdds.com will be moving all the time up until the New Mexico primary, so be sure to check back.
Is New Mexico a Red State or a Blue State?
New Mexico is a Democratic-leaning state that has moved more decisively blue over the past three election cycles, after spending most of the 21st century as a swing state. Kamala Harris carried New Mexico by 6 points in 2024. Biden won it by 10.8 in 2020, Clinton by 8.2 in 2016, and Obama by 10 in 2012 and 15 in 2008. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. Cook PVI rates New Mexico D+3. Earlier in this century, New Mexico was decided by less than 1 point in both 2000 and 2004.
The downballot picture is now firmly Democratic. Democrats hold the governorship under Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is term-limited in January 2027. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan) and all three U.S. House seats. Democrats also hold both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans have not won a statewide election in New Mexico since 2014. The state's transformation from swing state to safe Democratic state happened gradually rather than dramatically, as the state's Latino majority became more politically organized and the rural Anglo Democratic tradition declined.
New Mexico's voting pattern is shaped by its unique demographic profile. The state is roughly 50% Hispanic, the highest share of any state, with deep-rooted Hispanic communities going back centuries before statehood. Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) provides the bulk of the Democratic vote. Santa Fe County votes Democratic by overwhelming margins, reflecting the state capital's mix of government workers and arts-community in-migrants. Dona Ana County (Las Cruces) and Mora and San Miguel counties in the north also vote Democratic. The southeastern counties (the "Little Texas" oil-producing region around Hobbs and Roswell) vote heavily Republican.
The state's politics have been shaped by its mix of land-grant Hispanic communities, large Native American tribal nations (Navajo, Pueblo, Apache), federal employment in defense and energy (Los Alamos, Sandia, White Sands), and a small but growing transplant population. The state's three federal nuclear and defense laboratories make it one of the most federal-dependent state economies in the country, which sometimes complicates its political alignment. New Mexico has 5 electoral votes through 2030.
Will New Mexico stay Democratic? Probably. The structural factors have held up well: Latino voter turnout, urban growth in Albuquerque and Santa Fe, and the gradual decline of the state's traditionally Republican-leaning oil counties as the broader state economy diversifies. The state did see some Latino-male shift toward Trump in 2024, similar to Arizona and Nevada, but not enough to threaten the Democratic statewide lock. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
New Mexico Governor Betting Odds
Lujan Grisham's term ends in January 2027 under New Mexico's two-consecutive-term limit. She won in 2018 by 14 points and was re-elected in 2022 by 5, both wins against Steve Pearce and Mark Ronchetti respectively. EMILYs List has included the New Mexico gubernatorial race in its $15 million spending plan across nine states for the 2026 cycle.
Democratic primary (June 2, 2026): Deb Haaland, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior (2021-2025), former U.S. Representative for NM-1 (2019-2021), and the first Native American Cabinet secretary in U.S. history. Heinrich endorsed her. So did Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (NM-3). Sam Bregman, Bernalillo County District Attorney since 2023. Bregman has been the most prominent prosecutor in the state during a period of public-safety focus and has built local strength in Albuquerque. The primary is the de facto general election. Lujan Grisham's decision not to endorse leaves the Democratic establishment split. National Democrats see Haaland as the higher-profile candidate but also the candidate carrying more national baggage from her Interior tenure.
Republican primary: Five candidates. Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, cannabis businessman Duke Rodriguez, PR firm founder Doug Turner (a 2010 candidate), state Sen. Steve Lanier, and former Public Regulation Commissioner James Ellis. No clear frontrunner. The Rodriguez campaign is suing the Secretary of State's office over public records access, a side fight that has consumed some primary attention. Cook rates Likely Democratic. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
New Mexico Governor Election History
New Mexico's governorship has alternated between the parties, but Democrats have held it since 2019. Democrat Bill Richardson served two terms through 2011, Republican Susana Martinez, the first Latina governor in U.S. history, held it for two terms, and Martinez remains the last Republican to win the office. Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham, the first Latina Democratic governor in U.S. history, succeeded her in 2019.
Lujan Grisham won by 14 points in 2018 and 5 in 2022 and is now term-limited, opening the 2026 race. The decisive contest is the Democratic primary between former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County DA Sam Bregman, with the party establishment split and the governor staying neutral. Five Republicans compete for an uphill general election, and Cook rates the race Likely Democratic.
New Mexico Senate Betting Odds
New Mexico's federal delegation in the Senate is set through the next two cycles. Martin Heinrich, re-elected in 2024 by 10 points over Republican Nella Domenici, is next up in 2030. Ben Ray Luján, who won the seat vacated by Tom Udall in 2020 by 6 points, is next up in 2028.
The 2028 Luján race is the long-range market. He'll be a sitting senator in his first re-election cycle in a state that has trended slightly more competitive at the federal level. No serious primary challenge expected and no obvious Republican challenger has emerged. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
New Mexico U.S. Senate Election History
New Mexico's Senate seats have been Democratic since the retirements of Pete Domenici and later Tom Udall. Martin Heinrich has held one seat since 2013, winning re-election in 2024 by 10 points, and Ben Ray Luján won the other in 2020 by 6 points to succeed Udall.
Neither seat is on the 2026 ballot, Luján is up in 2028 and Heinrich in 2030. The forward-looking interest is Luján's first re-election in 2028, though no serious primary or Republican challenger has yet emerged in a state that leans Democratic but has trended slightly more competitive federally.
New Mexico House Betting Odds
Two of New Mexico's three House districts are safely Democratic; the third is a perennial swing seat. NM-1 (Melanie Stansbury, Albuquerque) is safely Democratic, Stansbury won the seat in a 2021 special election after Haaland's appointment to Interior. NM-3 (Teresa Leger Fernandez, northern New Mexico) is also safely Democratic.
The competitive seat is NM-2 (Gabe Vasquez, southern New Mexico). Vasquez beat Republican Yvette Herrell in 2022 by 0.7 points and again in 2024 by 2.6 points, both razor-thin margins in a district that's about 60% Hispanic and tilts toward agriculture, energy, and the Mexican border. Herrell has not announced 2026 plans but is the likely Republican nominee if she runs. NM-2 is on every national list of competitive House races. No mid-decade redistricting in New Mexico. Primary June 2, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
2 marketsNew Mexico U.S. House Election History
New Mexico's three House seats are all Democratic-held, but the delegation balance has long hinged on the southern NM-2. Democrats drew a 2021 map intended to make all three seats competitive-to-Democratic, and the result has been a 3-0 delegation, though NM-2 remains a genuine swing seat.
NM-1 (Melanie Stansbury) and NM-3 (Teresa Leger Fernandez) are safely Democratic, while Gabe Vasquez has held the border-region NM-2 by razor-thin margins, 0.7 points in 2022 and 2.6 in 2024, both times over Republican Yvette Herrell. NM-2 sits on every national competitive-race list, and New Mexico did not pursue mid-decade redistricting.
New Mexico Presidential Election Betting Odds
Harris won New Mexico by 6 points in 2024, narrower than Biden's 11 in 2020 but in line with the state's historical pattern. New Mexico has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. Cook PVI rates the state D+3. For 2028, the 5 electoral votes are Likely Democratic.
The state's Hispanic majority (47% Hispanic per 2020 census) has shifted moderately toward Trump in the last two cycles but not enough to flip statewide. The 2028 markets price New Mexico as a clear but not dominant Democratic state. If Haaland wins the governorship in 2026, she immediately becomes a national figure with executive experience.
New Mexico Presidential Election History
New Mexico was a genuine swing state at the start of the century, decided by less than a point in both 2000 and 2004, but it has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008 as its large Hispanic electorate organized and the rural Anglo Democratic tradition faded.
Margins have ranged from Obama's double-digit wins to Harris's narrower 6-point margin in 2024, which reflected some Latino-male movement toward Trump seen across the Southwest. Cook PVI rates the state D+3, and its 5 electoral votes are Likely Democratic for 2028, with the state treated as a clear but not dominant blue state.
New Mexico Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to New Mexico politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
New Mexico Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for New Mexico's races, headlined by the open governor's primary, the de facto general election. On the Democratic side, former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland faces Bernalillo County DA Sam Bregman with the establishment split, while five Republicans compete for an uphill nomination. There is no Senate race this cycle.
Because the Democratic primary effectively decides the governorship, the Haaland-Bregman numbers are the ones to watch, along with the perennial swing seat NM-2, where Democrat Gabe Vasquez has won twice by razor-thin margins. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
New Mexico governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 18–20, 2026 | 400 (LV) | Gregg Hull 33% · Duke Rodriguez 12% · Doug Turner 30% · Undecided 25% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | April 24 – May 1, 2026 | 477 (LV) | Gregg Hull 30% · Duke Rodriguez 9% · Doug Turner 21% · Undecided 40% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | April 17–24, 2026 | 534 (LV) | Sam Bregman 30% · Deb Haaland 52% · Undecided 18% |
| Emerson College | April 18–19, 2026 | 568 (LV) | Sam Bregman 24% · Deb Haaland 40% · Undecided 36% |
| Emerson College | April 18–19, 2026 | 432 (LV) | Gregg Hull 21% · Duke Rodriguez 10% · Doug Turner 9% · Undecided 61% |
| Change Research (D) | February 21–24, 2026 | 696 (RV) | Sam Bregman 25% · Deb Haaland 46% · Undecided 29% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 10 minutes ago.
New Mexico U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | April 17–24, 2026 | 534 (LV) | Matt Dodson 9% · Ben Ray Luján 69% · Undecided 22% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in New Mexico under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 10 minutes ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is New Mexico a red state or a blue state?
New Mexico is a Democratic-leaning state that has moved more decisively blue over the past three cycles after spending most of the century as a swing state. Harris carried it by 6 points in 2024, Democrats hold every statewide and federal office, and Cook PVI rates it D+3.
Who is running for New Mexico governor in 2026?
With Michelle Lujan Grisham term-limited, the decisive race is the Democratic primary between former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County DA Sam Bregman, with the establishment split and the governor neutral. Five Republicans run for an uphill general election, and Cook rates the race Likely Democratic.
Is there a New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
No. Both seats are held by Democrats and off-cycle, Ben Ray Luján is up in 2028 and Martin Heinrich in 2030. The 2026 ballot is the open governor race and all three House seats.
Which New Mexico House seat is competitive?
NM-2 in the south, held by Democrat Gabe Vasquez, who won by 0.7 points in 2022 and 2.6 in 2024 over Republican Yvette Herrell. The roughly 60% Hispanic border district is on every national competitive-race list. NM-1 and NM-3 are safely Democratic.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.