New York Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

New York is the fourth-largest state in the country and a reliable Democratic stronghold at the federal level, with 28 electoral votes and 26 House seats. The 2026 cycle in New York is dominated by Governor Kathy Hochul's re-election fight against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a race that started as a likely blowout and has narrowed in recent months as Hochul navigates a complicated relationship with newly-elected New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The state's congressional map is also subject to active litigation over the NY-11 Staten Island seat held by Republican Nicole Malliotakis, with the possibility — though not the probability — of mid-cycle redistricting before November. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

New York governor betting odds

Kathy Hochul is running for her second full term. She succeeded Andrew Cuomo in August 2021 after his resignation and won election to a full term in 2022 by 5.8 points over Republican Lee Zeldin — the closest New York gubernatorial election since 1994. The 2026 race began with Hochul facing serious vulnerability: Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado launched a Democratic primary challenge from her left in June 2025 after months of reports about a strained working relationship. He suspended the campaign on February 10, 2026, saying there was "no path forward."

Hochul then locked down endorsements from Mamdani and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in February 2026, neutralizing the left flank that had been her biggest 2024 weakness. She tapped Adrienne Adams, the former New York City Council Speaker, as her running mate. The Democratic primary is June 23, 2026, and Hochul is essentially unopposed.

The Republican side took a stranger path. Representative Elise Stefanik announced her candidacy on November 7, 2025, and was widely seen as the early frontrunner. Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County Executive who had just won re-election by 12 points in a Democratic county, launched his own campaign on December 9 and refused to defer. Stefanik withdrew on December 19, also dropping her House re-election bid. Trump endorsed Blakeman the next day. The latest Siena poll (March 31, 2026) showed Hochul leading 47-34, down from 51-31 a month earlier, with 64% of voters saying they don't know Blakeman well enough to form an opinion. The general election is the most-watched gubernatorial race in the country outside of California.

New York presidential election betting odds

New York has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988 and is not seriously priced as competitive in 2028. Harris carried the state by roughly 12 points in 2024, but the swing toward Trump from 2020 — about 11 points in margin — was one of the largest in the country, particularly in New York City, where outer-borough turnout collapsed and Latino voters shifted right at rates comparable to Texas and Florida.

Prediction markets pricing the 2028 race draw New York-relevant action mostly through Senator Chuck Schumer, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and Mayor Mamdani — none of whom is currently considered a top-tier 2028 candidate but all of whom appear in long-shot markets. The bigger story for 2028 is that New York is widely expected to lose two House seats and two electoral votes after the 2030 census, continuing a multi-decade decline in the state's national political weight.

New York senate betting odds

Neither New York Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, was last re-elected in 2022 and is next up in 2028. Kirsten Gillibrand, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2026 cycle, won her third full term in 2024 by 18 points and is next up in 2030.

The two senators have very different roles in the 2026 cycle despite neither being on the ballot. Gillibrand is responsible for the DSCC's national strategy to flip the four seats Democrats need for a Senate majority, working primarily on races in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Georgia. Schumer is positioning Senate Democrats for the post-2026 minority or majority depending on outcomes. New York Senate markets in 2026 are limited to early speculation on whether Schumer faces a serious 2028 primary challenge from his left, particularly given Mamdani's emergence and the broader generational shift in New York Democratic politics.

New York house betting odds

New York has 26 House seats, currently split 19 Democrats to 7 Republicans. Most are safe one way or the other, but several Democratic incumbents won narrow 2024 victories that make them targets in 2026, and one Republican-held seat is the subject of active redistricting litigation.

The NY-11 lawsuit: A federal challenge filed in late 2025 contends that Representative Nicole Malliotakis's Staten Island and Brooklyn district was drawn in a way that dilutes the voting power of Black and Latino residents. The case has not yet been resolved. Separately, New York legislators considered mid-decade redistricting legislation in their 2026 session in response to Republican-led redistricting in Texas, Ohio, and Florida, but a constitutional prohibition on mid-decade redistricting makes any change difficult to enact in time for November 2026.

Competitive Democratic-held seats: NY-3 (Tom Suozzi, won 2024 special by 8 points), NY-4 (Laura Gillen, won open seat by 2 points), NY-17 (Mondaire Jones, narrowly retook from Lawler), and NY-19 (Josh Riley, narrow 2024 flip) all attract market activity. The redistricting outcome — if any — would directly affect prices on these races. Representative Mike Lawler chose not to run for governor and is instead running for re-election in NY-17, where he had been the previous incumbent.