2026 Election Tracker
New York Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
New York 2026 election odds for Kathy Hochul's reelection against Bruce Blakeman, the NY-11 redistricting fight, and all 26 House races plus state history.
| Electoral votes | 28 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris ~56% / Trump ~44% (D+12 margin) |
| Current governor | Kathy Hochul (D), running for re-election |
| U.S. senators | Chuck Schumer (D, Minority Leader), Kirsten Gillibrand (D, DSCC Chair) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, all 26 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+10 |
New York is the fourth-largest state in the country and a reliable Democratic stronghold at the federal level, with 28 electoral votes and 26 House seats. The 2026 cycle in New York is dominated by Governor Kathy Hochul's re-election fight against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a race that started as a likely blowout and has narrowed in recent months as Hochul navigates a complicated relationship with newly-elected New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The state's congressional map is also subject to active litigation over the NY-11 Staten Island seat held by Republican Nicole Malliotakis, with the possibility, though not the probability, of mid-cycle redistricting before November. If you want to keep up with who is favored in New York elections, checking the Election Odds is the best way to do it.
Is New York a Red State or a Blue State?
New York is one of the bluest states in the country at the statewide level, but with significant Republican strength upstate and on Long Island. Kamala Harris carried New York by 12.6 points in 2024, the narrowest Democratic margin in the state since 1988. Biden won it by 23.1 in 2020, Clinton by 22.5 in 2016, and Obama by 28.2 in 2012. The 2024 margin compression reflected a sharp Trump improvement in New York City and the surrounding suburbs. Cook PVI rates New York D+10. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988.
The downballot picture leans Democratic but is more competitive than presidential results suggest. Democrats hold the governorship under Kathy Hochul, who won her 2022 race by only 6.4 points, the closest New York gubernatorial race in a generation. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand), the state Assembly, and the state Senate. Republicans hold 7 of the state's 26 U.S. House seats, with most of the Republican strength concentrated in Long Island and the Hudson Valley. The state's 2022 elections produced four Republican House pickups in suburban districts, which contributed to the GOP's narrow national majority.
New York's voting pattern is shaped by the dominance of New York City. The five boroughs contain roughly 43% of the state's population and vote Democratic by enormous margins, although the 2024 cycle saw a sharp Republican improvement in the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn. The New York City suburbs in Westchester, Rockland, Nassau, and Suffolk counties have moved Republican over the past several cycles, with Nassau and Suffolk now genuinely competitive. Upstate New York, the term used in state politics for everything north of the New York City metro, votes Republican by significant margins in most counties.
The state's political map has been shaped by the rapid suburban realignment that has worked differently here than in other big states. Where suburban realignment in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Phoenix has moved suburbs toward Democrats, New York's outer suburbs have moved toward Republicans on issues of crime, taxes, and cost of living. The 2026 governor's race between Hochul and a strong Republican challenger is expected to be competitive. New York has 28 electoral votes through 2030, the third-most in the country but down from 31 a decade ago after slow population growth.
Will New York stay Democratic? Yes at the presidential level, where the New York City Democratic margin is too large to overcome. But the state has become genuinely competitive in statewide and U.S. House races. The 2026 cycle will test whether Republicans can build on their 2022 House gains and the suburban shifts visible in 2024. The state will not be a presidential battleground in 2028, but Republicans have a real chance to flip the governorship for the first time since 2002. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
New York Governor Betting Odds
Kathy Hochul is running for her second full term. She succeeded Andrew Cuomo in August 2021 after his resignation and won election to a full term in 2022 by 5.8 points over Republican Lee Zeldin, the closest New York gubernatorial election since 1994. The 2026 race began with Hochul facing serious vulnerability: Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado launched a Democratic primary challenge from her left in June 2025 after months of reports about a strained working relationship. He suspended the campaign on February 10, 2026, saying there was "no path forward."
Hochul then locked down endorsements from Mamdani and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in February 2026, neutralizing the left flank that had been her biggest 2024 weakness. She tapped Adrienne Adams, the former New York City Council Speaker, as her running mate. The Democratic primary is June 23, 2026, and Hochul is essentially unopposed.
The Republican side took a stranger path. Representative Elise Stefanik announced her candidacy on November 7, 2025, and was widely seen as the early frontrunner. Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County Executive who had just won re-election by 12 points in a Democratic county, launched his own campaign on December 9 and refused to defer. Stefanik withdrew on December 19, also dropping her House re-election bid. Trump endorsed Blakeman the next day. The latest Siena poll (March 31, 2026) showed Hochul leading 47-34, down from 51-31 a month earlier, with 64% of voters saying they don't know Blakeman well enough to form an opinion. The general election is the most-watched gubernatorial race in the country outside of California, and the election odds for Governor show it.
Governor
6 marketsNew York Governor Election History
New York's governorship has been Democratic since 2007, but the office was genuinely two-party within living memory. Republican George Pataki won three terms beginning in 1994, unseating three-term Democrat Mario Cuomo, before Democrat Eliot Spitzer reclaimed it in a 2006 landslide. Spitzer resigned in a 2008 scandal and was succeeded by David Paterson, then Andrew Cuomo won three terms starting in 2010, resigning in 2021 and handing the office to Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul.
Hochul made history as the state's first woman governor and won a full term in 2022, but only by about 6 points over Lee Zeldin, the closest New York governor's race since 1994 and a warning sign about suburban and cost-of-living discontent. Her 2026 re-election bid against Bruce Blakeman is watched as a potential Republican opportunity, though the state's heavy Democratic registration edge and New York City turnout make her the favorite. Republicans have not won a statewide election in New York since Pataki's last win in 2002.
New York Senate Betting Odds
Neither New York Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, was last re-elected in 2022 and is next up in 2028. Kirsten Gillibrand, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2026 cycle, won her third full term in 2024 by 18 points and is next up in 2030.
The two senators have very different roles in the 2026 cycle despite neither being on the ballot. Gillibrand is responsible for the DSCC's national strategy to flip the four seats Democrats need for a Senate majority, working primarily on races in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Georgia. Schumer is positioning Senate Democrats for the post-2026 minority or majority depending on outcomes. New York Senate markets in 2026 are limited to early speculation on whether Schumer faces a serious 2028 primary challenge from his left, particularly given Mamdani's emergence and the broader generational shift in New York Democratic politics. See all senate seat election odds here.
New York U.S. Senate Election History
New York has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Al D'Amato won his last term in 1992. Chuck Schumer unseated D'Amato in 1998 and has held the seat ever since, rising to Democratic leader, while the other seat has been Democratic continuously since Hillary Clinton won it in 2000, passing to Kirsten Gillibrand by appointment in 2009 and through repeated elections thereafter.
Neither seat is on the 2026 ballot, Schumer next runs in 2028 and Gillibrand in 2030, so New York sits out the Senate cycle. The forward-looking question the markets occasionally price is whether Schumer faces a generational primary challenge in 2028 from the ascendant left wing of the state party, a prospect amplified by Zohran Mamdani's rise, rather than any Republican threat to the seats themselves.
New York House Betting Odds
New York has 26 House seats, currently split 19 Democrats to 7 Republicans. Most are safe one way or the other, but several Democratic incumbents won narrow 2024 victories that make them targets in 2026, and one Republican-held seat is the subject of active redistricting litigation.
The NY-11 lawsuit: A federal challenge filed in late 2025 contends that Representative Nicole Malliotakis's Staten Island and Brooklyn district was drawn in a way that dilutes the voting power of Black and Latino residents. The case has not yet been resolved. Separately, New York legislators considered mid-decade redistricting legislation in their 2026 session in response to Republican-led redistricting in Texas, Ohio, and Florida, but a constitutional prohibition on mid-decade redistricting makes any change difficult to enact in time for November 2026.
Competitive Democratic-held seats: NY-3 (Tom Suozzi, won 2024 special by 8 points), NY-4 (Laura Gillen, won open seat by 2 points), NY-17 (Mondaire Jones, narrowly retook from Lawler), and NY-19 (Josh Riley, narrow 2024 flip) all attract market activity. The redistricting outcome, if any, would directly affect prices on these races. Representative Mike Lawler chose not to run for governor and is instead running for re-election in NY-17, where he had been the previous incumbent. See more house of representative election odds here.
U.S. House districts
26 marketsNew York U.S. House Election History
New York's House delegation has shrunk steadily with the state's relative population decline, from 34 seats in the late 1980s to 26 today, and it has swung sharply between cycles. Democrats held a commanding edge after 2020, but a court-ordered 2022 map and a strong Republican suburban performance handed the GOP four pickups, contributing directly to the narrow national Republican House majority that year.
Democrats clawed several of those seats back in 2024, returning the delegation to 19-7, but the suburban battlegrounds on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley remain the most volatile in the Northeast. Heading into 2026, those same seats are the targets, alongside litigation over the Staten Island-based NY-11 and an effectively foreclosed attempt at Democratic mid-decade redistricting. The state's competitive House races, not its safely partisan ones, drive nearly all of New York's congressional market activity.
New York Presidential Election Betting Odds
New York has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988 and is not seriously priced as competitive in 2028. Harris carried the state by roughly 12 points in 2024, but the swing toward Trump from 2020, about 11 points in margin, was one of the largest in the country, particularly in New York City, where outer-borough turnout collapsed and Latino voters shifted right at rates comparable to Texas and Florida.
Prediction markets pricing the 2028 race draw New York-relevant action mostly through Senator Chuck Schumer, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and Mayor Mamdani, none of whom is currently considered a top-tier 2028 candidate but all of whom appear in long-shot markets. The bigger story for 2028 is that New York is widely expected to lose two House seats and two electoral votes after the 2030 census, continuing a multi-decade decline in the state's national political weight.
New York Presidential Election History
New York was a presidential swing state into the 1980s, even backing Ronald Reagan in his 1980 and 1984 landslides, but it has voted Democratic in every election since 1988 as New York City and its inner suburbs grew more dominant in the statewide vote. Democratic margins ran from the high teens to nearly 30 points across the 2000s and 2010s.
The 2024 result broke that pattern's scale. Harris won by 12.6 points, the narrowest Democratic margin since 1988, as Trump surged in New York City, especially among Latino voters in the Bronx and Queens, and turnout fell in Democratic strongholds. The 28 electoral votes remain safely Democratic and are not contested by national campaigns, but the compression is a real data point, and New York is on track to lose more electoral votes after the 2030 census.
New York Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to New York politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
New York Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for New York's races. The headline numbers are in the governor's race between Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul and Republican Bruce Blakeman, where recent Siena surveys have shown Hochul leading while a large share of voters say they still do not know Blakeman well. You will also see polling for the competitive suburban and Hudson Valley House districts held by members like Mike Lawler, Tom Suozzi, and Laura Gillen.
New York polling is heavily shaped by the gap between New York City margins and the increasingly Republican suburbs, so watch the regional crosstabs, especially Nassau, Suffolk, and the Hudson Valley, rather than just the topline. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
New York governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | February 16 – June 23, 2026 | Kathy Hochul 51% · Bruce Blakeman 32.5% · Other/Undecided 16.5% | |
| Siena College | June 17–23, 2026 | 1,120 (RV) | Kathy Hochul (D) 52% · Bruce Blakeman (R) 32% · Other 1% · Undecided 15% |
| Pollfinity Research | June 11–14, 2026 | 229 (RV) | Kathy Hochul (D) 50% · Bruce Blakeman (R) 40% · Undecided 10% |
| Siena College | April 27–30, 2026 | 806 (RV) | Kathy Hochul (D) 49% · Bruce Blakeman (R) 33% · Other 3% · Undecided 16% |
| Siena College | March 23–26, 2026 | 804 (RV) | Kathy Hochul (D) 47% · Bruce Blakeman (R) 34% · Other 3% · Undecided 16% |
| Echelon Insights/Tusk Strategies | March 24–26, 2026 | 500 (RV) | Kathy Hochul (D) 55% · Bruce Blakeman (R) 40% · Undecided 5% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 New York gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 4 hours ago.
New York U.S. Senate polls
No New York U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is New York a red state or a blue state?
New York is one of the bluest states in the country at the statewide level, but with significant Republican strength upstate and on Long Island. Harris carried it by 12.6 points in 2024 and Cook PVI rates it D+10, though statewide and House races have become genuinely competitive.
Who is favored in the New York governor race?
Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul is favored. The latest Siena poll showed her leading Republican Bruce Blakeman 47-34, with most voters saying they do not yet know Blakeman well, though Hochul's 2022 win by about 6 points shows the state can be competitive.
Is there a U.S. Senate race in New York in 2026?
No. Both seats are held by Democrats and neither is up in 2026. Chuck Schumer is next up in 2028 and Kirsten Gillibrand in 2030, so the governor's race and the 26 House seats are the focus.
Why did Elise Stefanik drop out of the governor race?
Stefanik announced in November 2025 and was the early Republican frontrunner, but Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman launched his own campaign and refused to defer after a strong local re-election. Stefanik withdrew on December 19, 2025, and Trump endorsed Blakeman the next day.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.