North Dakota Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

North Dakota Quick Guide
Electoral votes3
2024 presidential resultTrump 67% / Harris 31% (R+36 margin)
Current governorKelly Armstrong (R), elected 2024 (next 2028)
U.S. senatorsJohn Hoeven (R, next 2028), Kevin Cramer (R, on 2026 ballot)
2026 races on the ballotU.S. Senate, 1 at-large U.S. House seat
Cook PVIR+22

North Dakota's political math runs straight in 2026: a Republican senator seeking re-election in a state Trump won by 36 points, a popular Republican governor not on the ballot, and a Republican at-large House seat that will stay safe. Sen. Kevin Cramer is running for re-election to a second term in the seat he won in 2018 by defeating Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. He's expected to win easily. Gov. Kelly Armstrong, who took office in December 2024 after winning the open gubernatorial race, currently has 60% approval — ninth-most-popular governor in the country. The at-large House seat held by Julie Fedorchak (who replaced Armstrong in 2024) is on the ballot and will be retained safely. North Dakota voted for Trump by 36 points in 2024 and has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Byron Dorgan retired in 2010. The political math is unambiguous and the 2026 races reflect it. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Live odds — North Dakota

U.S. House districts

ND-AL House Election Winner
Republican Party vs. Democratic Party
Republican Party 96%
Odds via Polymarket and Kalshi. Updated twice daily.

North Dakota governor betting odds

Kelly Armstrong was sworn in December 15, 2024 and has 60% approval — the ninth-most-popular governor in the country. He took office after winning the 2024 gubernatorial race against Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller in the Republican primary and Democrat Merrill Piepkorn in the general (68.3% to 26%). Doug Burgum, the previous governor, did not seek a third term.

Armstrong's 60% approval rating per Morning Consult (February 2026) ranks him ninth among sitting governors nationally. His first-term focus has been property tax reduction, signing a bill into law in February 2025 that uses the state's Legacy Fund (which holds oil revenues) to offset primary residence property taxes.

The next North Dakota gubernatorial election is November 2028. Armstrong is eligible for a second term.

Governor election results — North Dakota
1980
R
1984
D
1988
D
1992
R
1996
R
2000
R
2004
R
2008
R
2012
R
2016
R
2020
R
2024
R
One box per gubernatorial general election, showing winning party. Source: 270toWin.

North Dakota presidential election betting odds

Trump won North Dakota by 36 points in 2024, 33 points in 2020, and 36 points in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 except for LBJ's 1964 win. Cook PVI rates North Dakota R+22.

The 3 electoral votes are safe Republican for 2028. Former Gov. Doug Burgum's brief 2024 presidential campaign was the most recent North Dakota figure in national presidential conversations. Burgum is now Trump's Interior Secretary.

Presidential election results — North Dakota
2024
Kamala Harris (D) · 30.5% 67.0% · Donald Trump (R)
2020
Joe Biden (D) · 31.8% 65.1% · Donald Trump (R)
2016
Hillary Clinton (D) · 27.2% 63.0% · Donald Trump (R)
2012
Barack Obama (D) · 38.7% 58.3% · Mitt Romney (R)
2008
Barack Obama (D) · 44.6% 53.3% · John McCain (R)
2004
John Kerry (D) · 35.5% 62.9% · George W. Bush (R)
2000
Al Gore (D) · 33.1% 60.7% · George W. Bush (R)
1996
Bill Clinton (D) · 40.1% 46.9% · Bob Dole (R)
1992
Bill Clinton (D) · 32.2% 44.2% · George H.W. Bush (R)
1988
Michael Dukakis (D) · 43.0% 56.0% · George H.W. Bush (R)
1984
Walter Mondale (D) · 33.8% 64.8% · Ronald Reagan (R)
1980
Jimmy Carter (D) · 26.3% 64.2% · Ronald Reagan (R)
1976
Jimmy Carter (D) · 45.8% 51.7% · Gerald Ford (R)
1972
George McGovern (D) · 35.8% 62.1% · Richard Nixon (R)
Most recent election shown first. Bold name indicates the state's winner that cycle. Gray segment in the bar represents third-party vote share. Source: 270toWin.

North Dakota senate betting odds

Six years after defeating Heidi Heitkamp by 11 points, Kevin Cramer is running for the second term that Heitkamp once held. Cramer previously held the state's at-large House seat from 2013-2019 before flipping the Senate seat in 2018. He's a Trump ally on the Senate Armed Services, Environment, Banking, and Veterans' Affairs committees.

Republican primary: Cramer is the only declared candidate of significance.

Democratic primary: Limited field. North Dakota Democrats have not won a Senate race since Heitkamp's 2012 win, which was itself an exception (Heitkamp won by 1 point in a year Romney carried the state by 20).

Cook rates Solid Republican. The senior senator, John Hoeven (Republican, in office since 2011), is next up in 2028. Both Hoeven and Cramer are Trump-aligned.

U.S. Senate election results — North Dakota
1988 1996 2004 2012 2020 2024
Class I
D
R
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
2018
2024
Class III
D
R
1992
1998
2004
2010
2016
2022
Each bar shows partisan continuity for one Senate class from 1988 to 2024. Tick marks below the bar indicate years the seat was on the ballot. Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab / Harvard Dataverse through 2018; 270toWin thereafter.

North Dakota house betting odds

Julie Fedorchak was elected to North Dakota's at-large House seat in 2024 after Kelly Armstrong vacated it for the governor's office. She is a former Public Service Commissioner. Fedorchak won 2024 by 35 points and is the heavy favorite for 2026.

Democrat Trygve Hammer is running again after his 2024 loss; he is the announced Democratic challenger but starts with no realistic path to victory.

No mid-decade redistricting (North Dakota has only one at-large seat). Primary June 9, 2026.

U.S. House delegation composition — North Dakota
2024
1R
1 seat
2022
1R
1 seat
2020
1R
1 seat
2018
1R
1 seat
2016
1R
1 seat
2014
1R
1 seat
2012
1R
1 seat
2010
1R
1 seat
2008
1D
1 seat
2006
1D
1 seat
2004
1D
1 seat
2002
1D
1 seat
2000
1D
1 seat
1998
1D
1 seat
1996
1D
1 seat
1994
1D
1 seat
1992
1D
1 seat
1990
1D
1 seat
1988
1D
1 seat
Each row shows the partisan composition of the state's U.S. House delegation after that cycle's general election. Bar widths are scaled to the state's largest delegation in the period, so post-Census growth or contraction is visible. Source: The Princeton Gerrymandering Project through 2018; 270toWin thereafter.