2026 Election Tracker
North Dakota Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
North Dakota 2026 election odds for Sen. Kevin Cramer's reelection in deep-red ND plus the at-large House race for Julie Fedorchak's seat, with history.
| Electoral votes | 3 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 67% / Harris 31% (R+36 margin) |
| Current governor | Kelly Armstrong (R), elected 2024 (next 2028) |
| U.S. senators | John Hoeven (R, next 2028), Kevin Cramer (R, on 2026 ballot) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | U.S. Senate, 1 at-large U.S. House seat |
| Cook PVI | R+22 |
North Dakota's political math runs straight in 2026: a Republican senator seeking re-election in a state Trump won by 36 points, a popular Republican governor not on the ballot, and a Republican at-large House seat that will stay safe. Sen. Kevin Cramer is running for re-election to a second term in the seat he won in 2018 by defeating Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. He's expected to win easily. Gov. Kelly Armstrong, who took office in December 2024 after winning the open gubernatorial race, currently has 60% approval, ninth-most-popular governor in the country. The at-large House seat held by Julie Fedorchak (who replaced Armstrong in 2024) is on the ballot and will be retained safely. North Dakota voted for Trump by 36 points in 2024 and has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Byron Dorgan retired in 2010. The political math is unambiguous and the 2026 races reflect it. Our team has listed all of the Election Odds for North Dakota below on ElectionOdds.com to help you see what is going on in the state.
Is North Dakota a Red State or a Blue State?
North Dakota is one of the reddest states in the country. Trump carried North Dakota by 36.4 points in 2024, by 33.4 in 2020, and by 36 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 except for Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. Cook PVI rates North Dakota R+20. North Dakota's combination of an oil-and-agriculture economy, sparse rural population, and strong evangelical Protestant culture has produced one of the most consistent Republican voting patterns in the country.
The downballot picture is overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Kelly Armstrong, who took office in January 2025 after Doug Burgum joined the Trump administration. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (John Hoeven and Kevin Cramer), the state's lone at-large U.S. House seat, and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. North Dakota Democrats hold no statewide elected office and have not since 2018 (when Heidi Heitkamp lost her U.S. Senate reelection to Kevin Cramer). The state's last Democratic governor (George Sinner) left office in 1992, and its last Democratic-controlled state legislative chamber was in the 1990s.
North Dakota's voting pattern is shaped by the state's small population (around 800,000 residents), its agricultural and energy economy, and the absence of any large urban centers. Cass County (Fargo) is the largest county and the most Democratic-leaning, but still leans Republican in presidential elections. Grand Forks County and Burleigh County (Bismarck) follow similar patterns. The state's Native American reservations, particularly Standing Rock and Spirit Lake, vote Democratic but are small. The rest of the state, particularly the western oil-patch counties around Williston and the rural eastern agricultural counties, votes Republican by overwhelming margins.
The state's politics have been shaped by the 2010s oil boom in the Bakken Formation, which transformed the western part of the state economically and demographically, and by the long careers of figures like John Hoeven, the longest-serving Republican governor in state history before being elected to the Senate in 2010. Doug Burgum's 2024 selection as U.S. Secretary of the Interior put another North Dakotan in a national spotlight. North Dakota has 3 electoral votes through 2030, the minimum.
Will North Dakota become competitive? No, not on any realistic horizon. The state's Republican margins are among the largest in the country, and the demographic forces driving its voting patterns are durable. Democrats have effectively stopped competing for the state at every level except local races. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
North Dakota Governor Betting Odds
Kelly Armstrong was sworn in December 15, 2024 and has 60% approval, the ninth-most-popular governor in the country. He took office after winning the 2024 gubernatorial race against Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller in the Republican primary and Democrat Merrill Piepkorn in the general (68.3% to 26%). Doug Burgum, the previous governor, did not seek a third term.
Armstrong's 60% approval rating per Morning Consult (February 2026) ranks him ninth among sitting governors nationally. His first-term focus has been property tax reduction, signing a bill into law in February 2025 that uses the state's Legacy Fund (which holds oil revenues) to offset primary residence property taxes. The next North Dakota gubernatorial election is November 2028. Armstrong is eligible for a second term. Find all of the Governors elections here.
North Dakota Governor Election History
North Dakota's governorship has been Republican for more than three decades. Democrat George Sinner served two terms through 1992 and remains the last Democrat to hold the office. Republicans have held it continuously since, through Ed Schafer, John Hoeven, Jack Dalrymple, Doug Burgum, and now Kelly Armstrong.
Armstrong, a former U.S. representative, won the open 2024 race after Burgum declined a third term, taking the general by more than 40 points, and entered 2026 with a 60 percent approval rating that ranks among the most popular governors in the country. There is no 2026 governor's race; the next is in 2028, when Armstrong will be eligible for a second term.
North Dakota Senate Betting Odds
Six years after defeating Heidi Heitkamp by 11 points, Kevin Cramer is running for the second term that Heitkamp once held. Cramer previously held the state's at-large House seat from 2013-2019 before flipping the Senate seat in 2018. He's a Trump ally on the Senate Armed Services, Environment, Banking, and Veterans' Affairs committees.
Republican primary: Cramer is the only declared candidate of significance. Democratic primary: Limited field. North Dakota Democrats have not won a Senate race since Heitkamp's 2012 win, which was itself an exception (Heitkamp won by 1 point in a year Romney carried the state by 20). Cook rates Solid Republican.
The senior senator, John Hoeven (Republican, in office since 2011), is next up in 2028. Both Hoeven and Cramer are Trump-aligned. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
North Dakota U.S. Senate Election History
North Dakota's Senate seats turned solidly Republican over the last 15 years. The state had a Democratic tradition through Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad, but Conrad's seat went to Republican John Hoeven in 2010, and Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, who won the other in a 1-point 2012 upset, lost it to Republican Kevin Cramer in 2018.
Cramer, who earlier held the at-large House seat, is seeking a second term in 2026 as the only significant Republican candidate, and Democrats have not won a Senate race here since Heitkamp's exceptional 2012 win. Cook rates the seat Solid Republican; Hoeven's seat is not up until 2028.
North Dakota House Betting Odds
Julie Fedorchak was elected to North Dakota's at-large House seat in 2024 after Kelly Armstrong vacated it for the governor's office. She is a former Public Service Commissioner. Fedorchak won 2024 by 35 points and is the heavy favorite for 2026.
Democrat Trygve Hammer is running again after his 2024 loss; he is the announced Democratic challenger but starts with no realistic path to victory. No mid-decade redistricting (North Dakota has only one at-large seat). Primary June 9, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
North Dakota U.S. House Election History
North Dakota has a single at-large House seat that has been Republican since 2011, when Rick Berg won it, followed by Kevin Cramer, Kelly Armstrong, and now Julie Fedorchak. The seat reliably produces overwhelming Republican margins.
Fedorchak, a former Public Service Commissioner, won the open seat by 35 points in 2024 after Armstrong left to run for governor, and she is the heavy favorite for re-election in 2026 against Democrat Trygve Hammer. With only one at-large district, North Dakota has no redistricting to contest.
North Dakota Presidential Election Betting Odds
Trump won North Dakota by 36 points in 2024, 33 points in 2020, and 36 points in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 except for LBJ's 1964 win. Cook PVI rates North Dakota R+22. The 3 electoral votes are safe Republican for 2028.
Former Gov. Doug Burgum's brief 2024 presidential campaign was the most recent North Dakota figure in national presidential conversations. Burgum is now Trump's Interior Secretary.
North Dakota Presidential Election History
North Dakota is among the most reliably Republican states in presidential politics, voting GOP in every election since 1968 except Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. Its oil-and-agriculture economy, sparse rural population, and evangelical Protestant culture have produced some of the largest Republican margins anywhere.
Trump carried the state by around 35 to 36 points in each of his three campaigns. Cook PVI rates it R+22, and its 3 electoral votes, the minimum, are never in doubt. The most recent North Dakotan in national presidential conversation was former Governor Doug Burgum, whose brief 2024 campaign ended with his appointment as Trump's Interior Secretary.
North Dakota Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to North Dakota politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
North Dakota Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for North Dakota's races, though in one of the reddest states in the country the outcomes are not in much doubt. Sen. Kevin Cramer seeks a second term in a seat he won by defeating Heidi Heitkamp, and Rep. Julie Fedorchak defends the safe at-large House seat. There is no governor race this cycle; Kelly Armstrong is among the most popular governors in the country.
With the state R+20 to R+22 and Trump winning by 36 points, no general election is expected to be competitive, and Democrats have not won a Senate race here since Heitkamp's exceptional 2012 win. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
North Dakota governor polls
No North Dakota governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
North Dakota U.S. Senate polls
No North Dakota U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is North Dakota a red state or a blue state?
North Dakota is one of the reddest states in the country. Trump carried it by about 36 points in 2024, Republicans hold every statewide and federal office, and Cook PVI rates it R+20 to R+22. Democrats have not won a Senate race there since 2012 or held the governorship since 1992.
Is Kevin Cramer favored for re-election?
Yes, overwhelmingly. Cramer, who flipped the seat by defeating Heidi Heitkamp in 2018, is the only significant Republican candidate and faces a limited Democratic field in a state Trump won by 36 points. Cook rates the seat Solid Republican.
Is there a North Dakota governor race in 2026?
No. Republican Kelly Armstrong won the open seat in 2024 and his term runs through 2028. He carries roughly 60% approval, among the highest of any governor. The 2026 ballot is the Senate seat and the single at-large House seat.
Who holds North Dakota's House seat?
Republican Julie Fedorchak, a former Public Service Commissioner, who won the at-large seat by 35 points in 2024 after Kelly Armstrong left it for the governorship. She is the heavy favorite for re-election against Democrat Trygve Hammer.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.