Oklahoma Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Oklahoma had a quieter 2026 ballot planned. Then, in March, Donald Trump nominated Senator Markwayne Mullin to lead the Department of Homeland Security after firing Kristi Noem. Mullin was confirmed March 23, 2026, resigned the same day, and Governor Kevin Stitt appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong as interim senator the next day — with the caveat that Armstrong cannot run for a full term. Trump immediately endorsed U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern for the now-open Senate seat. Beyond that, Stitt himself is term-limited, opening the governor's race. The state's 5 House seats are all safe Republican. June 16 primary, August 25 runoff. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Oklahoma governor betting odds

Stitt won the 2018 election as an outsider, was re-elected in 2022 by 14 points, and is now term-limited. Several Republican primary candidates are competing to succeed him, with the front of the field including:

AG Gentner Drummond, who has raised significantly more than any other 2026 statewide candidate dating back to 2023. Drummond is in his first term as AG, has been the most prominent Republican voice in state office, and is the early frontrunner.

State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters, whose four-year run as Oklahoma's top education official has been national-news contentious — pushing Bible curriculum mandates and feuding with school districts. Walters is the most ideologically aligned with the Trump-MAGA right.

Former Oklahoma House Speaker Charles McCall brings legislative leadership experience but less statewide profile.

Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell is term-limited and ran for governor briefly before withdrawing. U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern considered running but is running for Senate instead. State Sen. Mike Mazzei is also in.

Democratic state Rep. Cyndi Munson is running but Democrats have not won an Oklahoma statewide election since 2006. Primary June 16, 2026, with potential runoff August 25.

Oklahoma presidential election betting odds

Oklahoma is the most reliably Republican state in the country at the presidential level — Republican every cycle since 1968 except for LBJ's 1964 win, and Trump's 34-point margin in 2024 was among his strongest performances anywhere. Cook PVI rates Oklahoma R+20.

For 2028, the 7 electoral votes are safe Republican. No Oklahoma politician currently appears in 2028 presidential markets. Sen. Markwayne Mullin's elevation to Homeland Security Secretary in March 2026 raised his profile but moved him out of any near-term federal-elected-office track.

Oklahoma senate betting odds

Here's the timeline of how this seat opened up. Mullin was first elected to the U.S. House in 2012, then won a 2022 special election to fill the term of retiring Senator Jim Inhofe. He'd indicated he would seek a full term in 2026 — until March 2026, when Trump nominated him to replace Kristi Noem at Homeland Security amid the immigration enforcement backlash. Mullin was confirmed by the Senate on March 23 and resigned the same night. Stitt, who had 30 days to appoint a replacement, named energy executive Alan Armstrong on March 24 — chairman of the Williams Companies, a Tulsa-based pipeline operator. Armstrong signed the affidavit required by state law promising not to run in 2026.

The Republican primary to fill the open seat through the end of the term has consolidated quickly. U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern (OK-1, Tulsa) was the first major candidate in and immediately earned Trump's endorsement. Hern's previous interest in a gubernatorial bid evaporated when the Senate seat opened up. Other Republicans are running but Hern's Trump endorsement combined with his existing congressional infrastructure makes him the heavy favorite. The Democratic field is small and uncompetitive.

Oklahoma has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1990. Cook rates Solid Republican. Primary June 16, 2026.

Oklahoma house betting odds

All five Oklahoma House seats are held by Republicans, and that's expected to continue. OK-1 (Hern's seat, Tulsa) is the only open race because Hern is running for Senate. State officials like state Sen. Avery Frix and others are competing for the Republican nomination. Oklahoma uses closed primaries — only Republican Party members can vote in Republican primaries. The Oklahoma Democratic Party did not request open primaries for the 2026 cycle, and as a result none of the state's primary elections are open.

No mid-decade redistricting in Oklahoma. The state was not part of the post-Callais redistricting conversation given Republicans already hold all five seats. Primary June 16; runoff August 25 if needed.

State Question 832, a proposed minimum wage increase to $15 (and tying future increases to U.S. Department of Labor data), is also on the June 16 ballot.