2026 Election Tracker
Oregon Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Oregon 2026 election odds for the Kotek-Drazan governor rematch, Jeff Merkley's fourth-term Senate run, the swing OR-5 House race, and Oregon election history.
| Electoral votes | 7 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 55% / Trump 41% (D+14 margin) |
| Current governor | Tina Kotek (D), running for re-election |
| U.S. senators | Jeff Merkley (D, on 2026 ballot), Ron Wyden (D, next 2028) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor, U.S. Senate, all 6 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+6 |
Welcome and thanks for checking out our Oregon election odds page. Oregon held its primary on May 19, 2026, and the results confirmed what most observers had expected. Gov. Tina Kotek won the Democratic gubernatorial primary at 84.3 percent, and former state Sen. Christine Drazan won the Republican primary at 42.3 percent, setting up a Kotek-Drazan rematch four years after Drazan lost to Kotek by 3.4 points in 2022. Sen. Jeff Merkley cruised through the Democratic Senate primary at 93.4 percent and will face perennial Republican candidate Jo Rae Perkins, the 2020 and 2022 GOP nominee who never cleared 41 percent in either previous general. The state's six House seats remain 5 Democrats and 1 Republican going into November, with OR-5 (Janelle Bynum's suburban Portland district) the only competitive race on the federal ballot. Voters also rejected the gas tax referendum by a wide margin. Kotek had explicitly declined to redistrict despite the national mid-decade redistricting fight. This page on ElectionOdds.com covers all the Oregon races and our homepage will cover all of the current 2026 election odds for all the other stuff.
Is Oregon a Red State or a Blue State?
Oregon is a Democratic state with significant rural Republican strength outside the Willamette Valley. Kamala Harris carried Oregon by 14.9 points in 2024. Biden won it by 16.1 in 2020, Clinton by 11 in 2016, and Obama by 12.1 in 2012. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. Cook PVI rates Oregon D+6. Oregon's Democratic identity is somewhat newer than Washington's: the state voted Republican in five of the seven presidential elections from 1968 through 1984 before shifting decisively Democratic.
The downballot picture is Democratic at the federal and statewide level. Democrats hold the governorship under Tina Kotek, who won by 3.4 points in 2022 in one of the closer Oregon gubernatorial races in recent years. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats (Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley), 5 of 6 U.S. House seats, and both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Oregon since 2002, and they have not held the governorship since 1987, the second-longest streak in the country behind Washington's. The 2022 gubernatorial race was unusually close because of an independent candidate (Betsy Johnson, a former Democratic state senator) who pulled votes that would otherwise have gone to Kotek.
Oregon's voting pattern is dominated by the Willamette Valley. Multnomah County (Portland) is the largest county in the state and votes Democratic by overwhelming margins. Washington County (Hillsboro and the western Portland suburbs), Clackamas County (the southern Portland suburbs), Lane County (Eugene, home of the University of Oregon), and Benton County (Corvallis) all vote Democratic. The rural counties east of the Cascades, anchored by Bend, and the rural counties along the southern Oregon coast, vote Republican. The state has experienced a notable recent shift among working-class voters in southern Oregon's timber counties, mirroring the rural realignment visible in Washington's eastern counties.
The state's politics have been shaped by its environmental movement, its tech economy in the Portland metro area, and its unique tradition of progressive ballot measures. Oregon was the first state to enact universal vote-by-mail (1998), the first to legalize physician-assisted suicide (1994), and the first to decriminalize small amounts of all drugs (2020, though the law was substantially reversed in 2024). The state has 8 electoral votes through 2030.
Will Oregon become competitive? No, not at the presidential or U.S. Senate level. The Portland metro is too large and too Democratic to be challenged by the rural eastern counties. At the state level, the 2022 gubernatorial race showed that an unusual three-way race can produce competition, but a normal two-way race is heavily Democratic. The 2026 cycle will test whether Republicans can build on their southern Oregon and Eastern Oregon strength in the open governor's race. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Oregon Governor Betting Odds
Kotek's 2022 win was the closest Oregon gubernatorial race in decades, she beat Christine Drazan by 3.4 points in a three-way race that included independent Betsy Johnson, a former Democrat. The 2026 election is a rematch under different circumstances. Drazan won the May 19 Republican primary with 42.3 percent in a five-way field, defeating state Rep. Ed Diehl (who finished second) and former NBA player Chris Dudley, the 2010 GOP gubernatorial nominee. Kotek won the Democratic primary with 84.3 percent against nine challengers, none of whom held office.
The general election is now a head-to-head matchup without the Betsy Johnson third-party spoiler that nearly cost Kotek her seat last cycle, a structural change that on paper favors Kotek, though her job approval has been mediocre. Cook rates the race Likely Democratic. The general election is November 3, 2026. A separate dynamic: Oregon's first-term Labor Commissioner Christina Stephenson (the only statewide elected office besides governor and attorney general) won her primary at 62 percent and is heavily favored to win a second term. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Oregon Governor Election History
Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since Vic Atiyeh, who left office in 1987, giving it the second-longest such drought in the country behind neighboring Washington. A long line of Democrats followed: Neil Goldschmidt, Barbara Roberts, John Kitzhaber (who won four terms across two stints before resigning in 2015), Ted Kulongoski, Kate Brown, and now Tina Kotek.
Kotek's 2022 win was unusually narrow, just 3.4 points, because independent Betsy Johnson siphoned Democratic-leaning votes in a three-way race. The 2026 contest is a Kotek-Drazan rematch, but without Johnson on the ballot, a structural change that favors Kotek even with mediocre approval ratings. Cook rates the race Likely Democratic, and the cycle tests whether Republicans can convert their rural strength into a statewide breakthrough.
Oregon Senate Betting Odds
Merkley first won this seat in 2008 by defeating Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. He's won re-election by 19 points in 2014 and 17 points in 2020. He framed his 2026 run around "the magnitude of the darkness and danger" from the Trump administration.
The May 19, 2026 primary went as expected: Merkley won 93.4 percent against retired electrical engineer Paul Damian Wells, while perennial Republican candidate Jo Rae Perkins won the seven-way GOP primary with about 75 percent. Perkins, a former Linn County GOP chair, was also the Republican Senate nominee in 2020 (losing to Merkley by 18 points) and 2022 (losing to Ron Wyden by 15). Her third nomination signals how thin the Oregon GOP bench is at the federal level. The general election will not be competitive. Oregon has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Gordon Smith's 2002 re-election. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Oregon U.S. Senate Election History
Oregon's Senate seats have been Democratic for two decades. Ron Wyden has held one since a 1996 special election, and Jeff Merkley won the other in 2008 by unseating Republican Gordon Smith, whose 2002 re-election remains the last Republican Senate win in the state. Both have won re-election comfortably ever since.
Merkley's 2026 bid for a fourth term drew only token opposition: he took 93 percent of the May primary, and Republicans again nominated perennial candidate Jo Rae Perkins, their losing nominee in 2020 and 2022, a sign of how thin the state GOP's federal bench is. Cook rates the general election Solid Democratic.
Oregon House Betting Odds
The Oregon delegation breaks 5 Democrats to 1 Republican (Cliff Bentz in OR-2, the eastern Oregon district). Most seats are safe. The exception is OR-5, the suburban-and-rural seat south of Portland held by first-term Democrat Janelle Bynum, who defeated incumbent Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer (now Labor Secretary in the Trump administration) by 2.5 points in 2024. Bynum's re-election is the only Oregon House race rated competitive by national handicappers.
The May 19, 2026 primary set the field. Bynum won the Democratic primary at 83 percent against challenger Zeva Rosenbaum. The Republican primary went to Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair, who beat former Republican legislative spokesperson Jonathan Lockwood with about 57 percent. Adair-Bynum will be the marquee Oregon House race in November. Oregon's other House incumbents, Suzanne Bonamici (OR-1), Maxine Dexter (OR-3), Val Hoyle (OR-4), Bentz (OR-2), and Andrea Salinas (OR-6), all won their primaries and face general election challengers who are unlikely to threaten them.
Kotek explicitly declined to redistrict Oregon's map despite the national mid-decade redistricting fight. Her office statement: "The Governor is tracking what other states are doing and currently has no plans to redistrict in Oregon. Oregon redistricting is controlled by statute and redistricting is a once a decade process." With Democrats already holding 5 of 6 seats, any redistricting attempt would have limited upside. Voters also rejected the gas tax referendum on the May 19 ballot by a wide margin, with NO winning about 83 percent. The referendum had been a major Republican-led effort to overturn the $4.3 billion transportation package Kotek passed through a special legislative session in 2025. The defeat preserves the funding package but the lopsided margin signals durable voter opposition to fuel tax increases regardless of how they're packaged. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
5 marketsOregon U.S. House Election History
Oregon's delegation has leaned Democratic, and after the 2020 census added a sixth seat, a Democratic-drawn map produced the current 5-1 split, with Republican Cliff Bentz's vast eastern OR-2 the lone GOP district. Most seats are safe for their incumbents.
The competitive exception is OR-5, the district south of Portland where Democrat Janelle Bynum unseated Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, now Trump's Labor Secretary, by 2.5 points in 2024. Bynum faces Republican Patti Adair in the cycle's marquee Oregon House race. Notably, Governor Kotek declined to join the national mid-decade redistricting wave, leaving the 5-1 map in place since Democrats already hold five of the six seats.
Oregon Presidential Election Betting Odds
Oregon's last Republican presidential win came in 1984, when Reagan's national landslide carried even the Pacific Northwest. Harris won by 14 points in 2024, a 4-point shift toward Trump from Biden's 16-point win in 2020, slightly less than the national pro-Trump shift but a measurable swing nonetheless. Cook PVI rates Oregon D+6.
For 2028, the 7 electoral votes are reliably Democratic but not in the safest tier (Massachusetts, Maryland, California). Oregon's southern and eastern rural counties continue to trend rightward while Portland and the Willamette Valley anchor the Democratic majority.
Oregon Presidential Election History
Oregon's Democratic presidential identity is newer than its neighbors'. The state backed Republicans in five of seven elections from 1968 through 1984, including Reagan in his 1984 landslide, its last Republican presidential win, before realigning. It has voted Democratic in every election since 1988, anchored by the booming Willamette Valley.
Harris carried Oregon by about 15 points in 2024, a roughly 4-point shift toward Trump from 2020 but still a comfortable margin. Cook PVI rates the state D+6, reliably Democratic though not in the safest tier with Massachusetts or California. Its rural southern and eastern counties keep trending rightward while Portland and the valley anchor the majority, and the electoral votes are not contested for 2028.
Oregon Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Oregon politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Oregon Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Oregon's races, now set by the May 19 primary. In the governor's race, Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek faces a rematch with Republican Christine Drazan, this time without the third-party spoiler that nearly cost Kotek in 2022. In the Senate race, Democrat Jeff Merkley faces perennial Republican Jo Rae Perkins. The one competitive House race is OR-5, where Democrat Janelle Bynum faces Republican Patti Adair.
Oregon rarely produces close federal polling given its Democratic lean, so the number to watch is the Kotek-Drazan margin and OR-5, the state's only genuinely competitive House seat. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Oregon governor polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffman Research Group (R) | May 11–12, 2026 | 603 (LV) | Tina Kotek (D) 45% · Christine Drazan (R) 45% · Undecided 10% |
| Hoffman Research Group (R) | May 11–12, 2026 | 603 (LV) | Tina Kotek (D) 44% · Chris Dudley (R) 48% · Undecided 9% |
| Hoffman Research Group (R) | April 23–24, 2026 | 620 (LV) | Ed Diehl 18% · Christine Drazan 35% · Chris Dudley 14% · Other 8% · Undecided 25% |
| Nelson Research | April 14–17, 2026 | 515 (LV) | Danielle Bethell 2% · Ed Diehl 18% · Christine Drazan 37% · Chris Dudley 18% · David Medina 7% · Undecided 18% |
| FM3 Research (D) | January 28 – February 4, 2026 | 1,065 (LV) | Tina Kotek (D) 45% · Christine Drazan (R) 40% · Undecided 15% |
| FM3 Research (D) | January 28 – February 4, 2026 | 1,065 (A) | Tina Kotek (D) 43% · Ed Diehl (R) 37% · Undecided 20% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 15 minutes ago.
Oregon U.S. Senate polls
No Oregon U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Oregon a red state or a blue state?
Oregon is a Democratic state with significant rural Republican strength outside the Willamette Valley. Harris carried it by about 15 points in 2024, Democrats hold every statewide and federal office, and Cook PVI rates it D+6.
Who is favored in the Oregon governor race?
Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek is favored in her rematch against Republican Christine Drazan. Kotek won by just 3.4 points in 2022, but that race included a spoiler independent, Betsy Johnson, who is not on the 2026 ballot. Cook rates the race Likely Democratic.
Is Jeff Merkley's Senate seat competitive?
No. Merkley is seeking a fourth term and Republicans nominated perennial candidate Jo Rae Perkins, their losing nominee in 2020 and 2022. Oregon has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and Cook rates the race Solid Democratic.
Which Oregon House seat is competitive?
OR-5, the district south of Portland where first-term Democrat Janelle Bynum, who beat Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer by 2.5 points in 2024, faces Republican Patti Adair. It is the only Oregon House race rated competitive. Governor Kotek declined to redistrict the state's 5-1 map.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.