Pennsylvania Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Pennsylvania is the closest large state in the country and the tipping-point state of the 2024 presidential election. Trump carried it by just 1.7 points over Harris — about 120,000 votes out of nearly 7 million cast. The state's politics have been on a knife edge for a decade, and the 2026 cycle is led by what many Democrats hope will be a defining win: Governor Josh Shapiro's re-election campaign, which will both consolidate his standing in Pennsylvania and shape his prospects as a 2028 Democratic presidential candidate. There is no Senate race on the ballot in 2026 — both Pennsylvania senators were elected in cycles other than this one — but the House delegation has four competitive districts where the November outcomes could affect national control of the chamber. National 2028 markets and balance-of-power coverage live on the homepage.

Pennsylvania governor betting odds

Josh Shapiro launched his re-election campaign in Philadelphia on January 8, 2026, and the contours of the race were set within hours. The Republican Party of Pennsylvania had endorsed state Treasurer Stacy Garrity in September 2025, Trump endorsed her in January 2026, and Doug Mastriano — the 2022 GOP nominee who Shapiro defeated by 15 points — announced January 7 he would not run again. Garrity is the only Republican on the May 19 primary ballot.

Shapiro is running with structural advantages no Pennsylvania incumbent has enjoyed in decades. His 60% job approval rating in Quinnipiac's October 2025 poll is the highest of his governorship. He raised $23 million in 2025 and had $30 million cash on hand at the start of 2026, against Garrity's $1.5 million raised and $1 million cash. He has privately told donors he aims for $90-100 million total — which would break the Pennsylvania record he himself set in 2022. In head-to-head polling, Shapiro leads Garrity 55-39.

Garrity's pitch is that Shapiro is more interested in running for president than governing Pennsylvania. She has the strongest fundraising record of any Pennsylvania GOP statewide candidate in years, having posted the highest vote total of any 2024 statewide office in her treasurer re-election. Garrity is widely viewed as a more formidable candidate than Mastriano was, but Republicans privately concede the race is uphill given Shapiro's standing. The general is November 3, 2026.

Pennsylvania presidential election betting odds

Pennsylvania is the most important state in presidential politics. Trump won it by 0.7 points in 2016, Biden by 1.2 points in 2020, and Trump by 1.7 points in 2024. The 2024 result made Pennsylvania the tipping-point state — the state that, if it had flipped to Harris, would have shifted the Electoral College outcome with margin to spare. Pennsylvania's Cook PVI of R+1 reflects this: it is roughly even with the nation overall, voting only marginally more Republican than the national popular vote.

The state's centrality to 2028 is already shaping markets. Josh Shapiro is one of the leading Democratic presidential prospects, and his 2026 margin against Garrity will be read as a leading indicator. An October 2025 Quinnipiac poll testing a hypothetical 2028 Shapiro-Vance matchup had Shapiro winning Pennsylvania 53-43. On the Republican side, Senator Dave McCormick — who flipped the state's other Senate seat in 2024 by 0.24 points — is occasionally mentioned in long-shot 2028 markets, but his focus appears to be his own Senate work and not a presidential run.

Pennsylvania senate betting odds

Neither Pennsylvania Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Senator John Fetterman (D), elected in 2022 by 5 points over Mehmet Oz, is next up in 2028. Senator Dave McCormick (R), who defeated Bob Casey Jr. by 16,000 votes in 2024 to flip Pennsylvania's second Senate seat to Republicans, is next up in 2030. Pennsylvania has the only true split Senate delegation among the swing states.

Pennsylvania Senate markets in 2026 are limited to early 2028 speculation. Fetterman has drawn primary interest from his left after a series of disagreements with the Democratic caucus on Israel, immigration, and other issues; some markets price the probability of a credible primary challenge to him in 2028. McCormick is universally expected to seek re-election in 2030.

Pennsylvania house betting odds

Pennsylvania has 17 House seats, currently split 10 Republicans to 7 Democrats. Pennsylvania's congressional map was drawn by the state Supreme Court in 2018 and modified by the Legislature in 2021 — both processes produced a map that is competitive in a way most state maps are not, with four genuine swing districts that have changed party hands in the past three cycles.

Democrats are targeting four seats in particular: PA-1 (Brian Fitzpatrick, the last northeastern Republican holdout in suburban Philadelphia), PA-7 (Ryan Mackenzie, narrowly flipped from Susan Wild in 2024), PA-8 (Rob Bresnahan, narrowly flipped from Matt Cartwright in 2024), and PA-10 (Scott Perry, who has survived several close races and faces Janelle Stelson in a rematch of 2024). Republicans are defending all four with the slim 220-215 House majority depending on PA's outcomes more than almost any other state.

No mid-decade redistricting is contemplated in Pennsylvania. The state's redistricting process makes single-party redraws procedurally difficult, and neither party has moved to start one. The November 3 general election will be run on the existing 2021 map.