2026 Election Tracker
Virginia Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Virginia 2026 election odds for Mark Warner's fourth Senate term plus all 11 House races on the existing map after the redistricting amendment failed.
| Electoral votes | 13 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Harris 51.8% / Trump 46% (D+5.8 margin) |
| Current governor | Abigail Spanberger (D), sworn in January 2026 |
| U.S. senators | Mark Warner (D, on 2026 ballot), Tim Kaine (D, next 2030) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | U.S. Senate, all 11 U.S. House seats |
| Cook PVI | D+3 |
Welcome to ElectionOdds.com and our Virginia election page. Virginia in 2026 is defined by a story that just ended. The state's most-watched political fight of the year, a Democratic effort to redraw the congressional map mid-decade in response to Republican redistricting in Texas, Missouri, and elsewhere, collapsed on May 8, 2026, when the Virginia Supreme Court struck down the constitutional amendment that voters had narrowly approved less than three weeks earlier. The maps revert to the existing 6-5 split. Beyond redistricting, Virginia's federal ballot is quiet: Abigail Spanberger just won the governor's race in 2025, so the only statewide federal contest is Senator Mark Warner's bid for a fourth term, which Republicans have struggled to make competitive. The 11 House seats will be contested under the existing 2021 map. This page should be your go to for everything related to the Virginia election odds.
Is Virginia a Red State or a Blue State?
Virginia is a Democratic-leaning state that has moved increasingly blue at the presidential level over the past two decades. Kamala Harris carried Virginia by 5.8 points in 2024. Biden won it by 10.1 in 2020, Hillary Clinton won it by 5.4 in 2016, and Barack Obama won it by 3.9 in 2012 and 6.3 in 2008. Cook PVI rates Virginia D+3. The state has voted Democratic in five consecutive presidential elections after going Republican every cycle from 1968 through 2004.
The downballot picture has been more competitive. Republican Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 gubernatorial race, narrowly defeating former governor Terry McAuliffe and breaking a Democratic streak in state offices. Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats and won back the governorship in 2025 with Abigail Spanberger, who replaced Youngkin in January 2026. Democrats also hold both chambers of the state legislature after the 2023 elections. The state's recent off-year and odd-year election results have made Virginia an important early signal of the national political environment.
Virginia's transformation has been driven by Northern Virginia. The counties of Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, and Arlington, along with the city of Alexandria, contain roughly 30% of the state's population and have shifted decisively Democratic since the early 2000s. The growth of the federal contractor and tech workforce, alongside the diversification of the suburbs, made Northern Virginia a Democratic stronghold. Richmond, Hampton Roads, and the Charlottesville area also vote Democratic. The rural counties of Southside, the Shenandoah Valley, and Southwest Virginia vote Republican by large margins but are not large enough to overcome the Northern Virginia population concentration.
The state's recent redistricting fight reached a notable conclusion in May 2026 when the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a Democratic-backed referendum that would have created a new congressional map favoring Democrats. The current 6D-5R map remains in place. Virginia has 13 electoral votes through 2030 and has gradually moved from the swing-state column to the lean-Democratic column over the past three election cycles.
Will Virginia stay competitive? Partially. At the presidential level, Virginia has moved out of the genuinely competitive range and is now considered safer for Democrats than Pennsylvania or Michigan. At the state level, the off-year gubernatorial cycle continues to produce competitive races, and Virginia's odd-year elections are often the first national signal of post-presidential political mood. The state is no longer a presidential battleground but remains a fascinating off-cycle barometer. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Virginia Governor Betting Odds
There is no governor race in 2026. The next Virginia gubernatorial election is in 2029. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and three-term U.S. Representative, won the November 2025 gubernatorial election against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by 15 points. Virginia is one of two states that holds its gubernatorial elections in odd years, alongside New Jersey, and the result was widely read as a referendum on Trump's second term. Democrats also won the Lt. Governor's office (Ghazala Hashmi) and Attorney General (Jay Jones), giving the party complete control of statewide offices for the first time since 2017.
Spanberger was sworn in January 11, 2026 and immediately became central to the redistricting fight. Her first major political fight was over a Democratic-led constitutional amendment for mid-decade redistricting. She signed the new proposed map into law February 20, 2026 conditional on voter approval of the amendment, which voters then narrowly approved on April 21, 2026, and which the Virginia Supreme Court struck down on May 8, 2026. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Virginia Governor Election History
Virginia is the only state that bars its governor from serving consecutive terms, which keeps the office turning over every four years and makes its odd-year races a closely watched national barometer. Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine held it in the 2000s, Republican Bob McDonnell won in 2009, and Democrats Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam followed. The pattern of the governorship flipping to the party out of power in Washington held repeatedly.
Republican Glenn Youngkin broke a Democratic run by beating McAuliffe's comeback bid in 2021, but the seat swung back hard in 2025, when Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by about 15 points as Democrats swept all three statewide offices. Because of the one-term rule, there is no 2026 governor's race; Spanberger's term runs to 2029. Her lopsided win was read nationally as an early referendum on Trump's second term.
Virginia Senate Betting Odds
Mark Warner is running for a fourth term. First elected to the Senate in 2008 after serving as governor from 2002 to 2006, Warner won re-election in 2014 by 17,000 votes and in 2020 by 12 points. He launched his 2026 campaign in December 2025 and was the only Democrat to qualify for the primary by the April 2 filing deadline, he is the de facto Democratic nominee. Warner currently serves as Ranking Member of the Senate Intelligence Committee.
The Republican field is weak. State Sen. Bryce Reeves, who launched his campaign in September 2025 and was seen as the strongest GOP recruit, dropped out December 28, 2025, citing "a serious family health matter" and refiled for state Senate re-election. The remaining Republican candidates, Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, Chuck Smith, David Williams, and Alex De Paula, have no statewide profile or fundraising base. The Quinnipiac/Morning Consult tracking from late 2025 showed Warner with 54% approval. Cook rates the race Solid Democratic. Primary August 4, 2026 (or June 17 if state-run). See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Virginia U.S. Senate Election History
Both of Virginia's Senate seats have been Democratic since the early 2010s, held by former governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. Warner, first elected in 2008, survived a surprisingly close 2014 race, winning by under 18,000 votes, before a more comfortable 12-point win in 2020. Kaine, elected in 2012, has won by wider margins and was the 2016 Democratic vice-presidential nominee.
The 2026 race is Warner's bid for a fourth term, and Republicans have struggled to field a credible opponent after their strongest recruit, state Sen. Bryce Reeves, dropped out in December 2025. Warner was the only Democrat to file, and Cook rates the race Solid Democratic. Kaine, the other senator, is not up until 2030, so Virginia's Senate market activity is minimal this cycle.
Virginia House Betting Odds
This is the section that almost looked very different. The Virginia Democratic Party spent six months attempting to do mid-decade redistricting, and on May 8, 2026, the Virginia Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that the effort was unconstitutional on procedural grounds. The maps stay where they have been since 2021.
The full timeline: Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio all redrew their maps in 2025 under pressure from Trump. Democrats in California successfully redrew theirs to compensate. In October 2025, Virginia Democrats, newly empowered by the November sweep that brought Spanberger to office, introduced a constitutional amendment to permit mid-decade redistricting. Virginia's constitution requires constitutional amendments to pass in two consecutive legislative sessions with an intervening election. The first vote passed October 31, 2025; the second passed January 16, 2026. A Tazewell County circuit court judge initially blocked the amendment from the April ballot; the Virginia Supreme Court stayed that order March 4, allowing the referendum to proceed. The amendment passed on April 21, 2026 by 50.7% to 49.3%. Spanberger had already signed the new proposed map (designed to flip the delegation from 6D-5R to 10D-1R) conditional on voter approval. Combined, the amendment and new map became the most expensive ballot question in Virginia history, with more than $85 million in spending.
Then on May 8, the Virginia Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that the amendment was procedurally invalid because the first legislative vote happened during the early-voting period rather than before the November 2025 election. The maps revert to the 2021 lines. Spanberger and AG Jay Jones filed an emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. For 2026 House races, this means business as usual: the existing 6D-5R map stands. Competitive seats include VA-2 (Jen Kiggans, R-Virginia Beach) and VA-7 (Eugene Vindman, D-Spotsylvania, first-term incumbent who flipped the seat in 2024). See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
6 marketsVirginia U.S. House Election History
Virginia's House delegation has tracked the state's blue shift, moving from Republican-leaning in the 2010s to a 6-5 Democratic edge under the map a bipartisan commission and the state Supreme Court produced for 2022. Several Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads seats that were once competitive have become reliably Democratic, while Republican strength concentrated in the rural south and west.
The defining 2026 story was the failed Democratic attempt to redraw the map mid-decade in response to Republican gerrymanders elsewhere. After a constitutional amendment narrowly passed in April 2026, the Virginia Supreme Court struck it down on procedural grounds in May, reverting the state to the 2021 lines. The competitive races run through VA-2, held by Republican Jen Kiggans, and VA-7, held by first-term Democrat Eugene Vindman, the two seats that will determine whether the 6-5 split holds.
Virginia Presidential Election Betting Odds
Virginia has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008, a notable shift from the state's previous five-decade Republican lean. Harris carried Virginia by 5.8 points in 2024, slightly outperforming Biden's 10-point margin in 2020 compared to the national environment but representing a marginal pro-Trump shift from prior cycles.
For 2028, Virginia is rated D+3 by Cook, competitive enough that Republicans could plausibly target it but not a top-tier swing state. Mark Warner is occasionally mentioned in long-shot 2028 Democratic markets but has not signaled interest. Spanberger, with her CIA background and her 2025 margin, may emerge as a 2028 figure depending on her early gubernatorial record. The state's federal workforce, military presence, and growing Northern Virginia suburbs all push the state toward the Democratic column, while exurban and rural Virginia remains solidly Republican.
Virginia Presidential Election History
Virginia voted Republican in every presidential election from 1968 through 2004, a reliable part of the GOP's southern base. The growth and diversification of Northern Virginia changed that decisively. Barack Obama carried the state in 2008, the first Democratic presidential win there since 1964, and Democrats have won all five elections since.
The margins have settled in the mid-single to low-double digits, Biden by 10 in 2020, Harris by 5.8 in 2024. That trajectory moved Virginia out of the tossup column and into lean-Democratic territory, now considered safer for Democrats than Pennsylvania or Michigan. Its 13 electoral votes are no longer a presidential battleground, though the federal workforce and Northern Virginia suburbs keep it firmly, if not overwhelmingly, blue.
Virginia Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Virginia politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Virginia Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Virginia's federal ballot. The only statewide contest is Democratic Senator Mark Warner's bid for a fourth term against a Republican field with no major candidate. You will also see polling for the competitive House districts, VA-2 (Republican Jen Kiggans) and VA-7 (first-term Democrat Eugene Vindman). There is no governor's race this cycle.
Virginia's tell is Northern Virginia turnout against the rural south and west, and as an odd-year-cycle state its recent results have been an early read on the national mood. Warner held a comfortable approval rating in late-2025 tracking. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Virginia governor polls
No Virginia governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Virginia U.S. Senate polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute/ Virginia Project (R) | May 1–5, 2026 | 382 (LV) | Kim Farington 22% · Bert Mizusawa 24% · David Williams 10% · Other 4% · Undecided 40% |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/ Virginia Project (R) | May 1–5, 2026 | 1,047 (LV) | Mark Warner (D) 54% · Kim Farington (R) 29% · Mark Moran (I) 2% · Undecided 14% |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/ Virginia Project (R) | May 1–5, 2026 | 1,047 (LV) | Mark Warner (D) 55% · Bert Mizusawa (R) 29% · Mark Moran (I) 3% · Undecided 14% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | December 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025 | 806 (A) | Mark Warner (D) 45% · Glenn Youngkin (R) 38% · Undecided 17% |
| 396 (RV) | 20% | 21% | Margin of error 11% · Kim Farington 6% · Bert Mizusawa 42% |
Polling data adapted from 2026 United States Senate election in Virginia under CC-BY-SA 4.0. Last refreshed 2 hours ago.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Virginia a red state or a blue state?
Virginia is a Democratic-leaning state that has moved increasingly blue at the presidential level. It has voted Democratic in five straight presidential elections, Harris won by 5.8 points in 2024, and Cook PVI rates it D+3, now considered safer for Democrats than Pennsylvania or Michigan.
Is there a governor race in Virginia in 2026?
No. Democrat Abigail Spanberger won in November 2025 and was sworn in January 2026. Virginia bars consecutive gubernatorial terms and holds the office in odd years, so the next race is 2029. The 2026 ballot is Senator Mark Warner's re-election plus all 11 House seats.
What happened with Virginia's redistricting fight?
Virginia Democrats tried to redraw the congressional map mid-decade to flip it from 6-5 Democratic toward 10-1. A constitutional amendment narrowly passed in April 2026, but the Virginia Supreme Court struck it down 4-3 on procedural grounds on May 8, 2026, reverting the state to the 2021 map.
Is Mark Warner's Senate seat competitive?
No. Warner is seeking a fourth term and was the only Democrat to file. Republicans lost their strongest recruit when Bryce Reeves dropped out in December 2025, and Cook rates the race Solid Democratic.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.