Wisconsin Election Odds — 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History

Wisconsin elects governors by about one point. The 2018 race was decided by 1.1 points. The 2022 race by 3.4. Both U.S. Senate races since 2022 came down to similarly narrow margins. The 2024 presidential vote went to Trump by 0.9. There’s no real concept of a “safe” statewide race in Wisconsin, and 2026 is the first open governor’s race since 2010 because Tony Evers declined to seek a third term. The Republican side has consolidated around a single Trump-endorsed candidate. The Democratic side has not. Whoever emerges from a ten-person primary in August will have less than three months to introduce themselves statewide before voting begins. For 2028 presidential markets and balance-of-power coverage, the homepage tracks the nationwide picture.

Wisconsin governor betting odds

Evers won 2018 by 1.1 points over Scott Walker, then won 2022 by 3.4 points over Tim Michels. He announced on July 24, 2025 that he would not seek a third term, citing his family. Eight Democrats and two Republicans qualified for the August 11 primary.

The Democratic field is the largest in recent state memory. Mandela Barnes, the former lieutenant governor who lost the 2022 U.S. Senate race to Ron Johnson by 1 point, entered in December and brings the most statewide name recognition. Sara Rodriguez, the current lieutenant governor, was the first major candidate in and has the institutional advantages of the incumbent administration. David Crowley, Milwaukee County’s first Black executive, is the leading candidate from the state’s largest metro. State Sen. Kelda Roys ran for governor in 2018 and represents Madison. State Rep. Francesca Hong, a Madison restaurant owner and one of the chamber’s four Democratic Socialists, is running a campaign focused on a $20 minimum wage and universal child care. Missy Hughes, former CEO of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation under Evers, and Joel Brennan, a former Evers cabinet secretary, round out the major candidates. Polling has 60-plus percent of Democratic primary voters undecided.

The Republican side has consolidated. U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany (WI-7, North Woods) earned Trump’s endorsement in January 2026, and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann dropped out of the race within days. Tiffany has the establishment, the endorsement, and a 72-county campaign strategy. Andy Manske, a 26-year-old medical service technician, is the only other GOP candidate still in. The April 7, 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court race went decisively to liberal Chris Taylor, extending the court’s 4-3 liberal majority and giving Tiffany an early read on the political environment — the morning after, he conceded Republicans “got our butts kicked.” Cook rates the general election toss-up.

Two state constitutional amendments are likely on the November ballot: an anti-DEI amendment limiting use of race or sex in public hiring, and an amendment restricting the governor’s line-item veto.

Wisconsin presidential election betting odds

Wisconsin’s last three presidential elections have been decided by less than a point. Trump won by 0.7 in 2016, Biden won by 0.6 in 2020, Trump won by 0.9 in 2024. There is no Rust Belt state where presidential outcomes are tighter. Cook PVI rates the state Even.

For 2028, Wisconsin is permanently in the toss-up category. Any winning presidential coalition almost certainly needs the state — combined with Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s the core of the Rust Belt path to 270. Senator Tammy Baldwin, who won 2024 by 1 point against Eric Hovde, has occasionally been mentioned in long-shot 2028 Democratic markets but has not signaled interest.

Wisconsin senate betting odds

Neither Wisconsin Senate seat is on the 2026 ballot. Ron Johnson, re-elected by 1 point over Mandela Barnes in 2022, is next up in 2028. Tammy Baldwin, re-elected by 1 point over Eric Hovde in 2024, is next up in 2030. Wisconsin’s senatorial split — one Republican, one Democrat, both winning by margins of less than 2 points — is one of the more accurate snapshots of the state’s actual partisan composition.

Johnson’s 2028 race is the more interesting one for long-range markets. He’ll be 73 by November 2028 and has previously pledged not to seek additional terms (a pledge he revisited and reversed before 2022). No formal announcement has been made about his plans.

Wisconsin house betting odds

The state’s eight congressional seats are split 6 Republicans to 2 Democrats. The 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling that struck down the state’s gerrymandered legislative maps did not change the congressional lines for 2024 — those remained in place — but the new liberal court majority leaves open the question of whether further redistricting challenges could succeed before 2028.

For 2026, WI-3 is the most competitive seat. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-La Crosse) won the seat in 2022 and again in 2024 in a district that runs along the western edge of the state and includes more rural and working-class territory than other Wisconsin GOP-held seats. Democrats have prioritized it. WI-1, held by Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), is the next-most-watched but has trended Republican more reliably. The other six seats are not in serious play. No mid-decade redistricting is occurring in Wisconsin.

The August 11 primary is the same day as the gubernatorial primary, which will substantially raise turnout in competitive Democratic primaries.