2026 Election Tracker
Wyoming Election Odds - 2026 Live Betting Odds & Voting History
Wyoming 2026 election odds for the open governor race after Mark Gordon, Cynthia Lummis' open Senate seat, and Harriet Hageman's open at-large House.
| Electoral votes | 3 |
|---|---|
| 2024 presidential result | Trump 72% / Harris 26% (R+46 margin) |
| Current governor | Mark Gordon (R), term-limited |
| U.S. senators | John Barrasso (R, next 2030), Cynthia Lummis (R, retiring) |
| 2026 races on the ballot | Governor (open), U.S. Senate (open), 1 at-large U.S. House seat (open) |
| Cook PVI | R+25 |
Welcome to our Wyoming Election odds coverage here at ElectionOdds.com. Three open seats in the most Republican state in the country. Sen. Cynthia Lummis announced December 19, 2025 that she would not seek a second term, citing energy demands of the office at age 71. U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman, the at-large House member who unseated Liz Cheney in the 2022 Republican primary with Trump's endorsement, declared for Senate four days later and received Trump's immediate endorsement. That cleared her House seat too. Governor Mark Gordon is term-limited. The result is the rare Wyoming cycle where every federal office on the ballot is open, a single sweep of statewide turnover unprecedented in the state's modern history. Trump won Wyoming by 46 points in 2024, the largest state-level margin nationally. All three seats will stay Republican. The races are all about which Republicans win them.
Is Wyoming a Red State or a Blue State?
Wyoming is the reddest state in the country. Trump carried Wyoming by 46.3 points in 2024, by 43.4 in 2020, and by 46.3 in 2016. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968 except for Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. Cook PVI rates Wyoming R+25, the highest Republican PVI of any state. Wyoming has the smallest population of any state and one of the smallest electorates, but its political identity as the most Republican state in the country has been consistent for decades.
The downballot picture is overwhelmingly Republican. Republicans hold the governorship under Mark Gordon, who is term-limited in January 2027. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats (Cynthia Lummis and John Barrasso), the state's lone at-large U.S. House seat (currently held by Harriet Hageman, who defeated Liz Cheney in the 2022 primary), and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Wyoming Democrats hold no statewide elected office and have not since 2010. The state's last Democratic governor (Dave Freudenthal) left office in 2011, and its last Democratic U.S. senator (Gale McGee) left office in 1977.
Wyoming's voting pattern is shaped by its energy economy, its ranching culture, and its small, sparsely distributed population. The state has only 580,000 residents. Albany County (Laramie, home of the University of Wyoming) and Teton County (Jackson Hole) are the only consistently Democratic-leaning counties, and their populations are too small to influence statewide results. The rest of the state, including the energy-producing counties of Campbell and Sweetwater and the ranching counties throughout the state, votes Republican by overwhelming margins. Wyoming has the most Republican rural vote share of any state.
The state's politics have been shaped by its coal, oil, and natural gas industries, its strong Second Amendment culture, and the famous 2022 primary in which Liz Cheney was defeated by Harriet Hageman in retaliation for her vote to impeach Donald Trump. Wyoming has historically been a state where Republican primaries are the meaningful elections, since the general election is essentially predetermined. The state has 3 electoral votes through 2030, the minimum.
Will Wyoming become competitive? No, not on any realistic horizon. The state's Republican margins are the largest in the country, and the demographic forces driving its voting patterns are durable. Democratic competitiveness in Wyoming is not on the political horizon. For a full state-by-state comparison, see the red states vs. blue states map.
Wyoming Governor Betting Odds
Wyoming's two-term constitutional limit means Mark Gordon's tenure ends in January 2027. Gordon, the former state treasurer (2012-2019), won the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial races and is now term-limited.
Republican primary (August 18, 2026), the de facto general election. Sprawling field: State Sen. Eric Barlow (R-Gillette), announced August 2025, focused on public lands and energy; State Senate President Bo Biteman, declared after the 2026 legislative session, championed the Wyoming Energy Dominance fund; Secretary of State Chuck Gray, running for governor after Hageman declined the gubernatorial race; Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, Trump-endorsed early in 2026, has built a broad institutional endorsement list including former state House and Senate leadership; State Treasurer Curt Meier; Cody businessman Brent Bien, Cheyenne resident Joseph Kibler, Reid Rasner, others.
Democratic primary: Limited field. No Democrat has won statewide office in Wyoming since 2002. Hageman's December 2023 decision to skip the gubernatorial race (despite leading early polling) reshaped the GOP primary. Degenfelder is currently the Trump-aligned frontrunner; Biteman is the legislative-leadership candidate; Gray is the secretary-of-state-running-up option. Cook rates Solid Republican. The general election is decided in the August primary. Find all of the Governors elections here.
Governor
Wyoming Governor Election History
Wyoming's governorship has been Republican for over a decade, though the state has shown a willingness to elect moderate Democrats to the office. Republican Jim Geringer served through 2003, then Democrat Dave Freudenthal won two terms, his 2006 re-election carrying every county, before leaving in 2011 as the last Democrat to hold the office. Republicans Matt Mead and Mark Gordon followed.
Gordon, a former state treasurer, is term-limited after winning in 2018 and 2022, making 2026 an open race decided in the August Republican primary. A sprawling field includes Trump-endorsed Superintendent Megan Degenfelder, Senate President Bo Biteman, and Secretary of State Chuck Gray, after Rep. Harriet Hageman passed on the race. Cook rates it Solid Republican.
Wyoming Senate Betting Odds
Cynthia Lummis announced her retirement December 19, 2025, citing energy demands at age 71. She has a 46-year career in Wyoming public service (state legislature, state treasurer, U.S. House from 2009-2017, and U.S. Senate since 2021). She is the most prominent crypto policy advocate in the Senate. Her retirement was a surprise, Trump had endorsed her re-election in March 2025.
Republican primary (August 18, 2026): U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman, who declared December 23, 2025, four days after Lummis's announcement. Trump endorsed her immediately ("TOTAL WINNER"). Hageman previously beat Liz Cheney in the 2022 House primary by 38 points with Trump's backing. She has the endorsement of fellow Republican Sen. John Barrasso, the outgoing Sen. Lummis, and most of the state party establishment. Jimmy Skovgard, Wyoming Army National Guard veteran, is the only other Republican on the ballot.
Democratic primary: Limited candidates with no realistic path to the general election. Hageman is essentially the next senator. Cook rates Solid Republican. Wyoming has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1970. See all of the election odds for senate seats here.
U.S. Senate
Wyoming U.S. Senate Election History
Wyoming's Senate seats have been Republican since Gale McGee, the last Democrat, lost in 1976. John Barrasso, appointed in 2007, has held one seat ever since, and Cynthia Lummis won the other in 2020 after a long career in state office and the U.S. House.
Lummis's surprise December 2025 retirement opened the seat, and Rep. Harriet Hageman, who unseated Liz Cheney in 2022, declared within days and drew Trump's immediate endorsement. With the party establishment behind her and only token opposition, Hageman is essentially the next senator; Cook rates the race Solid Republican.
Wyoming House Betting Odds
Hageman's Senate run leaves Wyoming's at-large House seat open. The seat is open because Hageman is running for Senate. Republican primary: Crowded field has formed, including Casper businessman Reid Rasner (actively campaigning since early 2026), former Wyoming Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow, and Casper-based military veterans David Giralt and Kevin Christensen. Secretary of State Chuck Gray briefly considered the House race before opting for governor.
Democratic primary: Minimal candidates. Wyoming Democrats have not won the state's at-large House seat since 1976 (Teno Roncalio). The general election will be Solid Republican regardless of primary outcome. No mid-decade redistricting (Wyoming has only one at-large seat). Primary August 18, 2026. See all election odds for house seats here.
U.S. House districts
Wyoming U.S. House Election History
Wyoming's single at-large House seat has been Republican since 1978, with no Democrat winning it since Teno Roncalio in 1976. Its most consequential recent contest was the 2022 Republican primary, in which Harriet Hageman defeated Liz Cheney by 38 points with Trump's endorsement after Cheney's vote to impeach him.
The seat is open in 2026 because Hageman is running for Senate, drawing a crowded Republican primary that includes Reid Rasner and former Superintendent Jillian Balow. The August primary is decisive in a state where the general election is a formality, and with one at-large district there is no redistricting to contest.
Wyoming Presidential Election Betting Odds
No state went redder for Trump than Wyoming in 2024, a 46-point margin, the largest in the country, exceeding West Virginia (42 points) and Oklahoma (33 points). Wyoming has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968, and has not voted Democratic for president since Lyndon Johnson's 1964 win. Cook PVI rates Wyoming R+25, the most Republican PVI in the country. The 3 electoral votes are safe Republican for 2028.
The state's most prominent political export of the last decade was former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, who broke with Trump after January 6 and lost the 2022 Republican primary to Hageman. Cheney has no current Wyoming political base.
Wyoming Presidential Election History
Wyoming is the most Republican state in the country at the presidential level, voting GOP in every election since 1968 except Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. Its coal, oil, and gas economy, ranching culture, and small rural population produce the largest Republican margins anywhere.
Trump carried it by more than 40 points in each of his three campaigns, including 46 in 2024, ahead of West Virginia and Oklahoma. Cook PVI rates it R+25, the highest of any state, and its 3 electoral votes, the minimum, are never in question. Its most prominent recent figure, Liz Cheney, lost her seat after breaking with Trump over January 6.
Wyoming Political Props & Other Markets
State-specific prediction markets tied to Wyoming politics, like cabinet moves, resignations, and ballot questions.
Wyoming Political Polls
The polls below pull the latest 2026 survey data for Wyoming's races, a rare cycle in which all three federal offices are open in the most Republican state in the country. Rep. Harriet Hageman is the heavy favorite for the open Senate seat after Cynthia Lummis's surprise retirement, while the open governor's race and the at-large House seat she is vacating both draw sprawling Republican fields.
Every contest is decided in the August 18 Republican primary, since the general election is a formality at R+25 with Trump winning by 46 points. The numbers that matter are the GOP primary margins, led by Trump-endorsed candidates like Megan Degenfelder for governor. Where a race has no recent public polling, that section will say so rather than show stale data.
Wyoming governor polls
No Wyoming governor polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Wyoming U.S. Senate polls
No Wyoming U.S. Senate polls are currently available from public sources. This section will populate automatically when pollsters release new surveys for this race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Wyoming a red state or a blue state?
Wyoming is the reddest state in the country. Trump carried it by about 46 points in 2024, the largest margin of any state, and Cook PVI rates it R+25, the highest Republican PVI anywhere. Democrats have not held statewide office since 2010.
Why are all of Wyoming's federal seats open in 2026?
A rare convergence: Gov. Mark Gordon is term-limited, Sen. Cynthia Lummis announced a surprise retirement in December 2025, and Rep. Harriet Hageman gave up the at-large House seat to run for Senate. It is a single sweep of statewide turnover unprecedented in the state's modern history.
Is Harriet Hageman favored for the Senate?
Yes, overwhelmingly. Hageman, who unseated Liz Cheney in the 2022 House primary, declared for Senate days after Lummis's retirement and won Trump's immediate endorsement plus the party establishment. She faces only token opposition; Cook rates the seat Solid Republican.
Who is running for Wyoming governor in 2026?
With Mark Gordon term-limited, a sprawling Republican primary will effectively decide it, led by Trump-endorsed Superintendent Megan Degenfelder, Senate President Bo Biteman, and Secretary of State Chuck Gray. Cook rates the open race Solid Republican.
Odds are aggregated from public prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi and are updated multiple times daily. They reflect real-money market pricing, not polling or editorial forecasts, and are provided for informational purposes only. ElectionOdds.com does not accept wagers.