- North Dakota holds its primary on June 9. The state has no governor or Senate race in 2026 — Gov. Kelly Armstrong was elected in 2024 and serves until 2028, and both Senate seats are held by Republicans with terms expiring in 2028.
- The headlining federal race is the at-large U.S. House seat, where freshman Rep. Julie Fedorchak faces nominal Republican primary opposition before a general election rematch against Democrat Trygve Hammer.
- Kalshi does not list North Dakota’s House race among its competitive general election markets. Fedorchak won 69.5% of the vote in 2024, and Trump carried the state by about 34 points that same year.
- Several statewide offices — including attorney general, secretary of state, and agriculture commissioner — are on the June 9 ballot, though all incumbents are Republican and running without Democratic opposition in the primary.
- North Dakota’s election odds are among the most closely watched in the country this year. Both the governor and at least one House seat will be genuine toss-ups heading into November.
BISMARCK, N.D. — North Dakota holds its primary election Tuesday, June 9. The ballot is shorter than some might expect.
The state has no governor’s race in 2026. Kelly Armstrong was elected governor in November 2024 and will serve until 2028. There is also no Senate race. Both of North Dakota’s Senate seats are held by Republicans — John Hoeven and Kevin Cramer — with terms that do not expire until 2028.
The top federal contest on Tuesday’s ballot is the at-large U.S. House race. Beyond that, several statewide offices are also up for election.
House: Fedorchak Has the Primary and November Both Under Control
Rep. Julie Fedorchak is seeking a second term in North Dakota’s at-large congressional seat. She won it in 2024 with 69.5% of the vote over Democrat Trygve Hammer. Trump carried the state by about 34 points that same year.
Her only Republican primary challenger is Alex Balazs, a former U.S. State Department employee who raised just $10,854 through March 31 — compared to Fedorchak’s $1.38 million in total fundraising. Balazs does not represent a credible primary threat.
Hammer is the presumptive Democratic nominee again. He ran against Fedorchak in 2024 and lost by nearly 39 points. Kalshi does not list the House of Representatives odds in North Dakota among its competitive general election markets. Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the seat as solidly or safely Republican.
Julie Fedorchak
Fedorchak, a Republican from Bismarck, is a former chair of the North Dakota Public Service Commission who served in that role for more than a decade. She won the at-large House seat in 2024 when longtime incumbent Kelly Armstrong gave up the seat to run for governor.
She skipped the NDGOP state convention this spring, choosing instead to seek the nomination directly through the June 9 primary. That decision put her alongside other statewide Republican incumbents who made the same call, reflecting an internal divide in the state party between the establishment and a more populist faction.
In Congress, Fedorchak has focused on energy, agriculture, and infrastructure — the three pillars of the North Dakota economy. She sits on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee.
Statewide Races: Republicans Running Without Meaningful Opposition
Attorney General Drew Wrigley, Secretary of State Michael Howe, Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring, and Tax Commissioner Brian Kroshus are all seeking reelection in 2026. As of February, no Democratic-NPL candidates had formally announced challenges to any of them.
Two Public Service Commission seats are also on the ballot, drawing some contested Republican primaries. No general election contest is expected to be competitive there either, which is clear via the lack of close election odds in North Dakota.
Democrats have not won a statewide election in North Dakota since 2012. The Democratic-NPL Party’s statewide infrastructure has declined sharply over the past decade, leaving Republicans as the dominant force at every level of North Dakota government.
The Sample That Doesn’t Fit the Midterm Narrative
Much of the 2026 midterm cycle has been defined by Democratic overperformance in state legislative races and vulnerable Republican incumbents in competitive states. North Dakota is the exception to nearly all of that.
Trump won the state 66.96% to 27.53% in 2024 — a 39-point margin. Republicans have held the governorship since 1993 and have not faced a serious Senate challenge in more than a decade. North Dakota is a state that simply doesn’t produce close federal races.
The one notable internal Republican story to watch out of Tuesday's primary is the PSC contests and any indication of how divided the state party remains after the convention-versus-primary split this spring. But for bettors and political watchers tracking election odds across the 2026 map, North Dakota is quiet ground.
The Bottom Line
North Dakota’s 2026 election cycle is about as settled as a midterm gets. No governor’s race. No Senate race. A House seat that Kalshi doesn’t list as competitive. Statewide incumbents running without credible opposition.
Fedorchak will advance from Tuesday’s primary. She will win in November. The statewide offices will remain Republican. None of that is likely to change.
For anyone following the broader midterm election odds picture, North Dakota’s primary is not the story. But it is a useful reminder of just how wide the partisan geography of the United States really is.
North Dakota’s primary is June 9, 2026. The general election is November 3, 2026.
