- Florida voted Tuesday, and the favorites held at the top. U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican primary for governor with about 48 percent, and he will face Democrat David Jolly in November.
- Donalds was the runaway the market expected. He was priced near 90 percent to win the nod, raised close to $100 million, and had Trump's backing, though outgoing Gov. Ron DeSantis never backed him.
- The night's upset came in the Senate race. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist, beat Alex Vindman, the far better-funded impeachment-era figure, for the Democratic nod.
- It may not matter much. Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary, is a heavy favorite to keep the seat, and Nixon starts the fall as a deep underdog in a red state.
- For a bettor, Florida was mostly chalk. The general election is safe Republican up and down the ballot, so the GOP nominees are the heavy favorites for November.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - Florida voted Tuesday, and at the top of the ballot the night went to script. Byron Donalds, the Trump-endorsed congressman, won the Republican primary for governor in a landslide, just as the odds said he would. The surprise came a rung down, in the Senate race, where a democratic socialist knocked off the Democratic establishment's pick. Even so, in a state this red, the results mostly confirm what was already priced in. The full board is on the Florida election odds.
Governor: Donalds Wins the Nomination
The Republican primary for governor was the marquee race, and it went as expected. Donalds won with about 48 percent, well clear of a crowded field that also drew Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner, and investor James Fishback. On the governor odds, he had been priced near 90 percent for weeks. That reflected Trump's endorsement, wide name recognition, and a war chest of close to $100 million. The one notable absence was DeSantis, who never backed anyone, not even Collins, his own lieutenant governor. On the Democratic side, former Rep. David Jolly, a onetime Republican, won easily with about 61 percent. Still, the general election is rated Safe Republican, and traders give the GOP about 82 percent to keep the office. Donalds outraised Jolly by more than ten to one, and he starts the fall a heavy favorite.
U.S. Senate: A Socialist Upset
The real story of the night was the Democratic Senate primary. Angie Nixon, a state representative and democratic socialist, was badly outspent. She still beat Alex Vindman, the retired Army officer who was a key witness in Trump's first impeachment. Vindman came in with huge national money and support, but he ran a complacent race, and Nixon caught him from the left. It is the latest in a summer of progressive challengers toppling better-funded, more moderate Democrats, from Michigan to Minnesota to Connecticut. On the U.S. Senate odds, though, the upset changes little. Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, appointed to Marco Rubio's old seat, is now the GOP nominee. She was already a heavy favorite, leading every Democrat by 8 to 11 points in the polls. Against Nixon, the furthest-left option, she may be safer still. One Democratic strategist called Vindman's loss a blessing in disguise. Florida was never really in play, and his defeat spares the party millions in a race it was likely to lose anyway.
U.S. House: A New Map and a Fallen Incumbent
Florida's House races ran on a new congressional map, redrawn by Republicans, and it scrambled several districts. The biggest casualty was Rep. Cory Mills, a Republican who lost his primary in the 7th District. He had been under a House Ethics Committee probe over claims including sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations. Elsewhere, longtime Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz won the Democratic nod in a redrawn 20th District. Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar won her Miami primary, and Democrat Jared Moskowitz turned back a challenge from his left in the 25th. The 19th District, which Donalds gave up to run for governor, drew a crowded Republican field for a safely red seat. On the House race odds, most of Florida's 28 districts are set and safe, with the new map, not the primaries, doing the real reshaping. Voters also settled contested primaries for the state's Cabinet offices, where Republicans remain favored in November.
The Bettor's Read
Florida was a chalk night with one twist. Donalds near 90 percent for the nod and Moody as a heavy Senate favorite were not bets worth making at those prices, and both delivered. The twist, Angie Nixon's win over Alex Vindman, is a great story and a poor bet, because it does not change the math. Florida is a red state, and Moody is a strong favorite no matter which Democrat she faces. If anything, the progressive wave that has defined this primary season handed Republicans a weaker opponent here. The generals are safe Republican from the governor's race on down, so there is little left to wager in November. The one thing to watch is whether Donalds's margin against Jolly ever tightens, which the market doubts. As always, refresh before you act. For the full board of election odds, Florida confirmed what was already priced, with a socialist upset thrown in for color.
