- Alaska voted Tuesday in its top-four primary, and the big names all advanced. In the Senate race, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, 48 percent to 43, with most of the vote counted.
- Peltola leading is a good sign for her, and the market agrees: on Polymarket she is now about a 52 percent favorite to win in November. But Alaska decides its general elections by ranked choice, so nothing is settled yet.
- The governor's race sent two Democrats to the top four, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich, along with Republicans Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson. Former Gov. Bill Walker missed the cut.
- Two strong Democrats is a mixed result. Polymarket has made Begich the leading Democrat at around 50 percent, but with two Democrats through, that number is repricing fast and their vote could split under ranked choice.
- The House was chalk. Republican Rep. Nick Begich led his primary and is priced around 80 percent to keep the seat, since Peltola chose to run for Senate instead of a rematch.
JUNEAU, Alaska - Alaska voted Tuesday, and as usual, the primary was more of a sorting than a decision. All the big names advanced to the top four, so the ranked-choice general in November is where the real bets sit. Still, the night offered signals. Mary Peltola led the Senate race, two Democrats surged into the governor's field, and the market's reads mostly held. The full board is on the Alaska election odds.
U.S. Senate: Peltola Tops the First Round
With most of the vote counted, Democrat Mary Peltola led the 16-person Senate field with about 48 percent, ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 43. Both easily advanced, along with two minor candidates. One of them was a second man named Dan Sullivan, who drew about 2 percent, a possible source of confusion the state could not keep off the ballot. Peltola finishing first is a real signal, and it lines up with the market. Looking to November, the market has nudged toward Peltola since she led the primary. On the U.S. Senate odds, Polymarket now gives her about 52 percent to Sullivan's 47, and Kalshi has her near 54 to his 48. That is a slight edge, not a lock, and a primary lead is not a win in Alaska. In 2022, Peltola led the first round of her House race and won that fall under ranked choice. In 2024, she led the primary again but lost the general, when Republican voters' second choices consolidated behind Nick Begich. The same math applies now. If the Republicans who backed other candidates rank Sullivan next, he can still win in November. The seat remains a genuine toss-up, and possibly one that decides the Senate.
Governor: Two Democrats Advance, and a Split Risk
The open governor's race was the wild card, and it delivered a twist. The top four were two Democrats, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich, and two Republicans, Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson. Former Gov. Bill Walker, running as an independent, did not make the cut. That two Democrats led confirms the strength the market has been pricing. On the governor odds, traders have swung to a Democrat, but the number is in motion. Polymarket has had Tom Begich around 50 percent as the leading Democrat, with Republican Bernadette Wilson near 26. With fellow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins also through to November, traders are actively repricing which Democrat leads, and the figure can move several points in a day. Two strong Democrats is a double-edged result. Under ranked choice, they could split the Democratic vote, and the two campaigns have quietly discussed whether one should drop out to consolidate support. Kreiss-Tomkins, the race's top fundraiser, argues he is the more electable of the two, having won a district that voted for Trump. Begich said Tuesday night he was not ready to step aside. How that sorts out is now the biggest question on the board, and it could move the numbers fast.
U.S. House: Begich Cruises
The House race was the quiet one, as expected. Republican Rep. Nick Begich, who won this seat in 2024 by beating Peltola, led his primary and advanced comfortably. With Peltola running for Senate instead of seeking a rematch, no strong Democrat lined up against him. On the House race odds, Polymarket keeps Republicans around 80 percent to hold the seat, and Begich remains a clear favorite in November. Nothing about Tuesday changed that.
The Bettor's Read
Alaska did what Alaska primaries do. It set the November field without an upset among the big names, so the bets are all still ahead. The Senate is the headline, a near toss-up where Peltola led the first round and now sits a slight favorite around 52 percent, but ranked choice keeps Sullivan very much alive on second-choice votes. The governor's race is the one to watch closely, because the market likes a Democrat, around 50 percent, but two of them advanced, the odds are churning over which one leads, and whether they consolidate or split will swing everything. The House leans Begich and is not much of a wager. In short, the primary confirmed the shape of the races without settling any of them. As always, these numbers will move as the ranked-choice math comes into focus, so refresh before you act. For the full board of election odds, Alaska's real drama is still in November.
