- Kalshi has Ed Markey near 94 percent to hold off Seth Moulton on September 1, and Polymarket has him at 95 with Moulton at 5.5.
- A Suffolk poll for the Boston Globe taken August 13 to 16 had Markey up 52.2 to 37.6, with 44.6 percent of primary voters saying his age counts against him.
- Dan Koh has traded between 81 and 87 percent on Kalshi in the open MA-6 race, with Tram Nguyen near 12 and John Beccia at 7.
- Michael Minogue sits at 99 percent on Kalshi for the Republican governor nomination, with Brian Shortsleeve at 5.
- Kalshi puts Democrats around 95 percent to hold the governor's office in November, so the Republican primary is a bet on a nomination and not an outcome.
BOSTON, MA - Massachusetts votes on Tuesday, September 1, the last state primary of the cycle. Two races carry real prices. The rest is paperwork. An 80 year old senator is defending his seat against a sitting congressman, and the seat that congressman is leaving has drawn six Democrats and no independent polling. Here is where the Massachusetts election odds stand five days out.
U.S. Senate: Markey At 94 Cents, Moulton At A Nickel
Kalshi had Markey near 94 cents on August 25, with Moulton in single digits. Polymarket agreed at 95 and 5.5 on about $120,000 of volume. Moulton's contract has been the busier one, which usually means small traders buying a cheap ticket rather than real money moving a line.
The polling backs the price. Suffolk surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters for the Globe from August 13 to 16 and found Markey ahead 52.2 to 37.6. The same poll shows why Moulton ran. Markey turned 80 in July, and 44.6 percent of those voters said his age either rules him out or makes them less likely to back him. Moulton is 47. That gap is the trade. Voters can tell a pollster they want someone younger and still pick the name they have known since the Carter administration. In 2020, Joe Kennedy III led Markey early and lost by more than 10 points.
Margin action is thin. A Polymarket side market on Markey's winning margin has the 10 to 15 point band as its favorite near 24.5 cents, on a few hundred dollars of volume. John Deaton runs unopposed for the Republicans, and no Republican has won a Massachusetts Senate race since 2010. The general is not where the Senate odds get interesting.
U.S. House: MA-6 Is The Only Real Board
The open seat in the 6th is the best wager in the state. Moulton's exit created the first competitive race there in more than a decade, and the district has been Democratic since 1989, so Tuesday decides it. Kalshi has Koh between 81 and 87 percent this week, with Nguyen near 12 and Beccia at 7.
Koh is chalk on money and endorsements, not on public polling, because none exists. His own campaign put out a survey showing him at 34 percent, Beccia at 15, Nguyen at 14, and 24 percent undecided. Nguyen's own May poll had her ahead. Both came from the campaigns that paid for them. On cash, Koh reported more than $6.8 million raised through August 12 and about $2 million left, against $685,130 raised and $190,000 left for Nguyen. Beccia self-loaned close to $4 million.
Turnout cuts both ways. Unenrolled voters can take a Democratic ballot here, and nearly half of the roughly 320,000 early ballots cast by August 24 came from them. September 1 is also lease turnover day in Boston, which makes young voters harder to reach. Elsewhere on the House odds board, Richard Neal trades near 87 percent against Jeromie Whalen in the 1st, and Jake Auchincloss sits around 93 in the 4th.
Governor: A Nomination Market, Not A Race
Maura Healey draws no serious primary opposition, and Kalshi prices Democrats around 95 percent to keep the office in November. That caps everything on the Republican side.
The Republican field narrowed to Minogue and Shortsleeve after Mike Kennealy exited and backed Minogue. Kalshi has Minogue at 99 with Shortsleeve at 5. He has put $13.5 million of his own money in, won the state party endorsement in April by a wide margin, and led June polling by roughly 30 points. A contract at 99 cents pays a penny, so the only governor odds worth watching are the November margin numbers once they list.
Down the Ballot
There is nothing to bet here, which is the story. Lieutenant Governor Kim Driscoll, Attorney General Andrea Campbell, Secretary of State William Galvin, Treasurer Deb Goldberg, and Auditor Diana DiZoglio all run unopposed on the Democratic ballot. Galvin is chasing a record ninth term without a primary fight for the first time in three cycles. Republicans are running write-ins for lieutenant governor and secretary of state because nobody qualified, and the only contested races left are four Governor's Council districts. No exchange lists a market on any of it.
The Bettor's Read
Senate is a fade, not a bet. Markey at 94 cents returns six cents on the dollar in a race where public polling has him up 15 and the closest comparison went his way by double digits. Moulton at a nickel is 5 cents for a late age-driven collapse that 2020 says does not arrive.
MA-6 is where the money should go. Koh in the low 80s is a real price with real doubt behind it. No neutral poll exists, a quarter of the field was undecided three weeks ago, and Nguyen has union endorsements that travel in a low turnout primary. If you think the unenrolled surge helps the best funded name, buy the favorite. If you think lease day and labor muscle break the other way, Nguyen at 12 is the value play.
Governor is a storage fee. Minogue at 99 and Democrats at 95 leave nothing to win. Massachusetts is a one race card, and that race is priced with more confidence than the evidence supports. For numbers that still move, work the wider election odds board.
