- Byron Donalds is -340 to win Florida’s governor’s race, down from -625 three days earlier.
- David Jolly’s price shortened to +240 from +385 over the same three-day stretch.
- Decision Desk HQ’s Sept. 23 forecast gives Donalds a 60% chance, eight points below where the month began.
- Florida A&M canceled the televised debate it had planned for Tuesday after Jolly declined to face Donalds.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Byron Donalds is now -340 to win Florida’s governor’s race, down from -625 three days earlier, after Decision Desk HQ downgraded the contest from a Republican lean to a toss-up.
A National Rating Flips
Decision Desk HQ took Florida off its “Leans Republican” list and gave it a toss-up rating on Sept. 23. “Byron Donalds now has a 60% win probability, down from 68% at the start of September,” the forecaster wrote, and under its scale a toss-up means it sees a realistic route to victory for both nominees. The Hill, reporting the change, set it against a rough national climate for Republicans, pointing to the unpopularity of the war in Iran and sliding presidential approval numbers rather than anything specific to Donalds’ campaign.
Jolly claimed the call as validation in a social media post: “For the first time, the Florida Governor’s race is officially a toss up … Change is here and we’re going to win.” Donalds’ campaign had not commented on the rating by midday Sept. 23, according to the Tallahassee Democrat. Answering a similar Sabato’s Crystal Ball downgrade earlier in the week, Donalds told Florida Politics that Jolly’s strategy is to “hide from the voters of Florida and kind of run out the clock” and ride the “political headwinds” facing Republicans nationally.
What The Price Move Means
Donalds’ -340 still makes him the clear favorite, a price that implies about 77%, down from roughly 86% at -625 three days ago. A Jolly ticket bought at +385 before the call pays far better than the +240 on offer now, and the market moved nine implied points in three days on the strength of a rating change. The move builds on the tied Florida poll that had the two candidates a tenth of a point apart and Jolly’s refusal to debate, both already pressuring Donalds’ number before the forecaster’s call landed.
Where The Race Stands
Florida is one of four contests Decision Desk HQ now rates a toss-up among the 36 governors’ races on the 2026 ballot, with Democrats favored in 20 of them, part of the same election odds board that tracks the Florida election odds through November. Florida A&M on Thursday canceled the one-hour debate it had planned to host Tuesday on its Tallahassee campus, saying it was disappointed its students would not hear from the candidates. Neither campaign has a debate scheduled, and Election Day is 39 days away.
