- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins’ price for Alaska governor jumped to -700 from -250, a roughly 16-point implied swing toward the Democrat.
- Bernadette Wilson’s price drifted from +185 to +450 as two rival Republicans stayed on the ranked-choice ballot.
- An AARP-sponsored poll released this month showed Kreiss-Tomkins leading Wilson 40% to 20% in the first round.
- Wilson has urged fellow Republicans Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor to drop out and avoid splitting the conservative vote.
JUNEAU, Alaska – Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is now priced at -700 to win Alaska’s open governor’s race, up sharply from -250 in an earlier reading, a swing that lines up with new polling showing him pulling away from a divided Republican field six weeks before the Nov. 3 election.
The Price Now
Kreiss-Tomkins’ -700 price implies about 87.5%, up from roughly 71% at -250 in the earlier reading. That’s a much steeper $700 lay to win $100 than backing him cost in that earlier reading. Wilson’s price moved the other way, drifting from +185 out to +450 over the same stretch. Both prices are part of the broader board of 2026 election odds still moving this cycle.
What’s Behind It
An AARP-sponsored poll of 800 likely voters, conducted by pollsters Bob Ward and Matt Hogan, put Kreiss-Tomkins at 40% in the first round, with Wilson at 20%, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson at 14%, former Attorney General Treg Taylor at 7% and 18% undecided, according to Alaska Public Media. Under the state’s ranked-choice runoff, the poll projected Kreiss-Tomkins defeating Wilson by 10 points, largely because many Republican voters declined to rank her at all.
The Cook Political Report cited the same GOP vote-splitting risk when it moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Sept. 17. The poll and the rating change both landed in the week before the price moved.
A Crowded Ballot
Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican, is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term, leaving the seat open for the first time since 2018. The Aug. 18 top-four primary sent two Democrats and two Republicans to the Nov. 3 ballot, a split the Alaska primary recap flagged as a ranked-choice risk for Democrats. Kreiss-Tomkins and fellow Democrat Tom Begich finished first and second at roughly 22% and 20%, with Wilson and Bronson near 10% and 8%.
Begich dropped out Aug. 28 and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins, consolidating Democratic support behind one name. Taylor, who had finished fifth, moved onto the ballot in his place, which is how the general election ended up with one Democrat against three Republicans.
What’s Next
Wilson has repeated her call for Bronson and Taylor to step aside, warning that a three-way Republican field hands the race to the lone Democrat under ranked-choice tabulation. Neither has agreed; both are instead urging Republican voters to rank all three GOP candidates ahead of Kreiss-Tomkins. The race heads into its final six weeks before the Nov. 3 general election, with Alaska election odds shifting again if any Republican exits the field.
