- Kalshi’s lowest Democratic price among its 10 California House races is Randy Villegas at 90.5 cents in CA-22.
- Republican Rep. David Valadao’s CA-22 contract is near 10 cents, with Kalshi’s last trade at 11 and Polymarket at 9.5.
- Adam Gray in CA-13 at 91.4 cents and Derek Tran in CA-45 at 93.2 cents are the next-tightest races.
- The other seven Democrats trade between 93.3 and 96.6 cents, with Mike Levin in CA-49 the highest.
FRESNO, Calif. – Kalshi’s California House race odds price the Democrat at 90 cents or more in all 10 districts the exchange lists, with Randy Villegas at 90.5 cents in the Central Valley’s 22nd District the tightest and Republican Rep. David Valadao’s contract near 10 cents. Each Democratic price implies at least a 90% chance of a win, and Election Day is Nov. 3.
All 10 Democrats Trade Between 90.5 and 96.6 Cents
Kalshi’s California House markets cover 10 of the state’s 52 districts on the map voters approved as Proposition 50 in November 2025, among the many election odds the exchange posts for the midterms. The Democratic contract last traded at 90.5 cents or higher in every one, and CA-22 is the only seat where the Republican contract last traded in double digits.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Democratic Odds (Cents) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-22 | Randy Villegas | David Valadao | 90.5 |
| CA-13 | Adam Gray | Kevin Lincoln | 91.4 |
| CA-45 | Derek Tran | Chuong Vo | 93.2 |
| CA-41 | Linda Sánchez | Mitch Clemmons | 93.3 |
| CA-3 | Ami Bera | Robb Tucker | 94.6 |
| CA-21 | Jim Costa | Kyle Kirkland | 94.6 |
| CA-47 | Dave Min | Jenny Le Roux | 95.1 |
| CA-27 | George Whitesides | Jason Gibbs | 95.9 |
| CA-9 | Josh Harder | John McBride | 96.4 |
| CA-49 | Mike Levin | Armen Kurdian | 96.6 |
Those are market-implied probabilities, not polls, and the California election odds page tracks the state through Election Day.
CA-22 Is The Only Seat With A Republican Incumbent
Valadao is the only sitting member of the House of Representatives among the 10 Republican nominees, and the other nine Democrats are all sitting House members. He won the old CA-22 in 2024 with 53.4% of the vote, according to the California Secretary of State’s statement of vote, and Proposition 50 redrew the seat.
Nathaniel Rakich of Inside Elections said the redrawn district would have voted for Joe Biden by 17 points in 2020 but Donald Trump by 2 in 2024, as Ballotpedia reported in July. A 90.5-cent Villegas price therefore assumes a 2026 electorate more Democratic than the seat’s 2024 baseline.
Democrats took 59.3% of the June 2 primary vote in the district, according to the state’s primary statement of vote, with Villegas at 32.4% and fellow Democrat Jasmeet Bains at 26.9%, against 40.7% for Valadao. That primary drew 79,757 votes, under half the 167,507 cast in the 2024 general election under the old lines, so it shows the Democratic base more than the November margin.
Villegas’s market is also the deepest of the 10, with about 60,000 Democratic contracts traded on Kalshi against about 4,500 in CA-21, the thinnest, so the lowest price on the board rests on the most trading.
Polymarket’s CA-22 market, which is priced by party rather than by name, lists the Democrat at 90.5 cents and the Republican at 9.5, within a cent and a half of Kalshi. A Villegas contract risks 90.5 cents to collect 9.5, so one upset takes back the profit from nearly 10 winning contracts at that price.
Gray And Tran Won In 2024 By 187 And 653 Votes
Gray took CA-13 in 2024 by 187 votes and Tran took CA-45 by 653, both under the old lines, according to the 2024 statement of vote. Kalshi now prices Gray at 91.4 cents and Tran at 93.2, the second- and third-tightest races, while Republican Chuong Vo’s CA-45 contract at 7.2 cents is the highest Republican price after Valadao’s.
Contracts Settle On Who Is Sworn In For 2027
Each Kalshi contract resolves on the party of the House member sworn in for the term that begins in 2027, and the exchange can settle early once media organizations project a winner.
