- Democrats are at 65% and 66.5% for Senate control at the two markets, each up 3 points since Oct. 14.
- Democrats are at 90.3% and 91.5% for House control, up 0.2 and 1 point over the same window.
- The first market’s Senate price closed at 69% on Oct. 22 before giving back 4 points in five days.
- The first market’s House contracts have traded about $50.7 million on the Republican side and $22.8 million on the Democratic side.
WASHINGTON – Election markets priced Democrats at 65% to win the U.S. Senate and 90.3% to win the U.S. House on Oct. 27, a week before the midterms, with the Senate price 3 points above its Oct. 14 level at both markets and the House price within a point.
The Senate Price Rose 3 Points At Both Markets Since Oct. 14
In prices pulled at about 5:35 a.m. ET on Oct. 27, the Democratic Senate price stood at 65% at the first market, up from 62% on Oct. 14. The second market had Democrats at 66.5%, up from 63.5%. The first market is the one carrying the lower Democratic price in each chamber.
The Democratic House price moved from 90.1% to 90.3% at the first market and from 90.5% to 91.5% at the second. The table compares the Democratic election odds at both markets.
| Chamber | Market | Odds Oct. 14 | Odds Oct. 27 | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | First | 62% | 65% | +3.0 |
| Senate | Second | 63.5% | 66.5% | +3.0 |
| House | First | 90.1% | 90.3% | +0.2 |
| House | Second | 90.5% | 91.5% | +1.0 |
Source: Democratic contract prices from two election markets, pulled at about 5 a.m. ET on Oct. 14 and about 5:35 a.m. ET on Oct. 27. Prices are the last trade at the first market and the midpoint at the second.
The Senate Price Peaked At 69% On Oct. 22
The 3-point net gain hides a round trip. At the first market the Democratic Senate contract closed at 69% on Oct. 22, 7 points above its Oct. 14 level, then fell to 63% by Oct. 25 and recovered to 65%. The second market’s price reached 68.5% within the window.
The Senate election odds show Republicans at 36% at the first market and 33.5% at the second, where their price is down 3 points since Oct. 14. The first market’s Democratic contract carried a bid of 64 and an ask of 65 at the pull, with the last trade at 65 and the prior close at 64.
The Two Markets Sit 1.5 Points Apart On The Senate
The gap between the two markets’ Senate prices was 1.5 points on Oct. 14 and 1.5 points on Oct. 27, because both rose the same 3 points. On the House the gap widened from 0.4 points to 1.2 points, as the second market rose 1 point and the first market 0.2.
At the first market, Democrats were at 90.3% for the House and Republicans at 9.7%, with the prior close also 90.3%. The second market had Democrats at 91.5% and Republicans at 8.5%. Republicans sit below 10% for the House at both markets, against 33.5% to 36% for the Senate, and the House of Representatives odds remain the chamber on which the markets agree most closely.
House Contracts Draw At Least Twice The Senate’s Volume
At the first market, the Republican House contract has traded about $50.7 million and the Democratic one about $22.8 million, against about $11.6 million and $8.5 million across the two Senate contracts. The second market shows about $23.9 million on the House and $9.4 million on the Senate.
The heaviest trading at the first market sits on the Republican House contract, the side priced at 9.7%. At both markets the House prices rest on at least twice the traded dollars of the Senate prices.
Democrats Need Net Gains Of Four Senate Seats And Three House Seats
The Senate party division count lists 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents among 100 senators, which leaves Democrats four seats short of a 51-seat majority.
Ballotpedia’s Oct. 14 tally put the House at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats and one independent, a split that lets Republicans absorb two losses while a Democratic majority takes a net pickup of three. The Senate requires the larger gain, and its Democratic price sits 25.3 points below the House price at the first market and 25 points below at the second.
Voters decide 35 Senate seats on Nov. 3, 33 on the regular cycle and two in special elections, plus every one of the 435 House seats, according to Ballotpedia.
