- Keisha Lance Bottoms is priced at 60% for Georgia governor, up from 47% on Oct. 17, while Rick Jackson fell to 40%.
- Bottoms’ price jumped from 51% to 57% across Oct. 21-22, six of the 13 points she has gained since Oct. 17.
- The AJC/UGA poll of 1,000 likely voters, fielded Oct. 7-15, had Jackson at 46%, Bottoms at 45% and 8% undecided.
- Democrats Aaron Ford in Nevada and Amy Acton in Ohio also gained, rising to 68% and 81% from 53% and 70%.
ATLANTA – Georgia governor odds flipped to Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, who stood at 60% on Oct. 25 against 40% for Republican Rick Jackson, after sitting at 47% on Oct. 17. Jackson has fallen from 53% on Oct. 16.
Bottoms’ Price Jumped Six Points Over Oct. 21-22
Bottoms moved from 51% to 57% across Oct. 21-22, after the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on its AJC/UGA poll. The University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs surveyed 1,000 likely voters by telephone Oct. 7-15 and found Jackson at 46%, Bottoms at 45% and 8% undecided, a one-point gap inside the poll’s 3.1-point margin of error. The latest market quote on Bottoms is a 60% bid and a 61% ask.
A Polling Average Still Leans To Jackson
A 270toWin average of five Georgia polls puts Jackson at 48.4% and Bottoms at 46.6%, a 1.8-point edge for the Republican. The Georgia election odds rank them the opposite way, with the gap between the nominees swinging 25 points, from Jackson ahead by 5 on Oct. 16 to Bottoms ahead by 20 on Oct. 25.
A Bottoms contract bought at 47% on Oct. 17 has gained 13 points. A Jackson contract bought at 53% on Oct. 16 has lost 13.
The AJC Cited A Democratic Enthusiasm Gap
The AJC reported that 68% of Democrats described themselves as very enthusiastic, against 48% of Republicans. Jackson, a billionaire health care executive, has spent at least $108 million of his own money, the paper reported, and Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, cannot match that spending.
Nevada And Ohio Leads Widen
Two other races among the governor election odds moved the same direction over the window. Georgia is the only one of the three where the market favorite changed. Nevada’s Aaron Ford extended his lead over Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo from 6 points to 35, and Ohio’s Amy Acton widened hers over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy from 39 points to 61.
The table compares the election odds for each candidate at the start and end of the window.
| Race | Candidate | Odds Oct. 16 | Odds Oct. 25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia governor | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) | 48% | 60% | +12 |
| Georgia governor | Rick Jackson (R) | 53% | 40% | -13 |
| Nevada governor | Aaron Ford (D) | 53% | 68% | +15 |
| Nevada governor | Joe Lombardo (R) | 47% | 33% | -14 |
| Ohio governor | Amy Acton (D) | 70% | 81% | +11 |
| Ohio governor | Vivek Ramaswamy (R) | 31% | 20% | -11 |
Source: election-market prices as of midnight ET on each date, Oct. 16-25, and quotes pulled at 10:10 a.m. ET on Oct. 25 and on Oct. 26.
Early Voting Ends Oct. 30
Georgia requires a majority winner for governor, and any runoff would be held Dec. 1, according to the state’s election calendar. Former President Barack Obama is scheduled to rally with Bottoms and Sen. Jon Ossoff in Atlanta on Oct. 28, Fox 5 Atlanta reported, and early voting ends Oct. 30. Election Day is Nov. 3.
