- Democrats’ 2028 Senate contract rose from 54 at midnight ET entering Oct. 29 to 89 at about 5:35 a.m. ET Nov. 6.
- Their 2028 House contract rose only from 72 to 81 over the same span, leaving the Senate 8 points higher.
- Fewer than 1,100 Democratic Senate contracts traded in the four weeks before Oct. 29, so the 54 was a low-volume price.
- Democrats won both chambers on Nov. 3 with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled, so no final Senate seat count is set.
WASHINGTON – The 2028 Senate control odds put Democrats at 89% in election-market trading at about 5:35 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, up 35 points from 54% at midnight ET entering Oct. 29. Democrats won both chambers of Congress on Nov. 3, according to NPR, and the market has repriced the Senate far faster than the House.
The Senate Price Gained 35 Points While The House Gained 9
The 2028 contract pays if Democrats control the Senate after the 2028 elections, and the market closes Feb. 1, 2029. The table sets it beside the House contract, and both now sit above 80 in the latest election odds.
| Pull Time (ET) | Senate Odds, Democrats | House Odds, Democrats |
|---|---|---|
| Midnight, entering Oct. 29 | 54 | 72 |
| Midnight, entering Nov. 3 | 69 | 71 |
| Midnight, entering Nov. 4 | 84 | 83 |
| 10:04 a.m., Nov. 4 | Last 83; bid 77, ask 81 | Last 84; bid 82, ask 83 |
| About 5:35 a.m., Nov. 6 | Last 89; bid 88, ask 89 | Last 81; bid 80, ask 81 |
Source: election-market prices for the 2028 Senate and House control contracts. Midnight rows are closing prices, and the other rows are pulls at the times shown. Contracts do not sum to 100 because of bid-ask spreads.
A Democratic Senate contract bought at 54 cents on Oct. 29 has gained 35 cents. One bought at 89 cents risks 89 to win 11, so the easy money in the move is already made.
Thin Trading Set The 54, And Volume Has Since Surged
The 54 held through October on almost no volume. Fewer than 1,100 Democratic Senate contracts traded in the four weeks before Oct. 29, no day reached 351, and the contract closed between 53 and 56 on every day it traded.
Volume hit 8,509 contracts on Oct. 29 as the close at midnight ET entering Oct. 30 rose to 64. It reached 68,995 on Nov. 4, more than half of the contract’s lifetime volume of about 124,000.
Because so few contracts set the 54, part of the 35-point gain measures a thin market finding a price rather than traders changing their minds. The spread tightened with the volume. A trader who bought at the ask and sold at the bid lost 4 points at the 10:04 a.m. Nov. 4 quote of 77 bid and 81 ask, and loses 1 point at the 5:35 a.m. Nov. 6 quote of 88 bid and 89 ask.
The Senate Contract Now Prices Above The House
On Oct. 29 the House contract led the Senate contract by 18 points. The Senate closed one point ahead at midnight ET entering Nov. 4, 84 to 83, and the gap has widened to 8 as the House eased from its 84 last trade at 10:04 a.m. Nov. 4 to 81.
The Republican side moved the other way. The Senate contract for Republicans fell from 45 at midnight ET entering Oct. 29 to 12 bid and 13 ask at 10:04 a.m. Nov. 4. A Republican contract bought at 12 cents risks 12 to win 88 on a long shot the sweep lengthened by 33 points. The House contract for Republicans crept up as Democrats’ House price eased.
| Republican Contract | Odds, 10:04 a.m. Nov. 4 | Odds, About 5:35 a.m. Nov. 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 Senate | Bid 12, ask 13 | Bid 11, ask 12 |
| 2028 House | Bid 14, ask 15 | Bid 18, ask 19 |
Alaska And Mississippi Remain Uncalled
Two 2026 Senate races, in Alaska and Mississippi, were still uncalled. Alaska Public Media reported Nov. 4 that Mary Peltola, the Democrat, led Sen. Dan Sullivan by a few hundred votes, with the state’s next count due Nov. 10 and a ranked-choice tabulation set for Nov. 18. Time reported Nov. 5 that The Associated Press had not called Mississippi, where Scott Colom led Cindy Hyde-Smith by 1,138 votes with 96% counted and affidavit and mail ballots can be counted for five business days after Election Day.
Alaska’s Democratic contract was 97 bid and 97 ask at the Nov. 6 pull, and Colom, covered in earlier Mississippi Senate odds reporting, was 97 bid and 98 ask.
Until both races are called, the final Senate seat count is open, and the 2028 Senate election odds are trading on a chamber whose 2026 makeup is not final.
