- Colom’s price to win Mississippi’s Senate seat rose from 7.4% at midnight ET on Nov. 4 to 82.7% by 5 a.m. in one election market.
- Both markets had Colom near 97% and Hyde-Smith near 4% on Thursday morning with the race still uncalled.
- Colom’s edge was 43 votes after midnight and 1,138 votes on Wednesday night, with an estimated 4% of the vote still out.
- Mississippi law offers no recount, and mail ballots with an Election Day postmark count if they arrive by Nov. 10.
JACKSON, Miss. – Scott Colom, the Democrat running for Mississippi’s Senate seat, went from 7.4% at midnight ET on Nov. 4 to 82.7% by 5 a.m. in one election market, and both markets had him at about 97% on Thursday morning with the count unfinished and Cindy Hyde-Smith, the Republican seeking a second full term, down to about 4%.
Colom Went From 7% To 83% In Five Hours
In the first market, Colom stood at 14.5% and Hyde-Smith at 85.5% at 7 p.m. ET on Nov. 2. At 7 p.m. ET on Nov. 3, an hour before Mississippi’s polls closed at 7 p.m. Central, Colom had risen to 19.5% and Hyde-Smith had slipped to 80.5%.
The early returns ran the other way. By midnight ET, with Hyde-Smith ahead in the count, Colom was down to 7.4% and Hyde-Smith up to 92.5%, and the 10-minute quotes had dipped as low as 2.5% on Colom at 11:50 p.m. The 1 a.m. pull had Colom above 50% in both markets, and by 5 a.m. ET the two had traded places at 82.7% and 17.2%.
The table sets those pulls beside the second market’s hourly closes and the latest election odds on the race from Thursday morning.
| Pull Time (ET) | Colom Odds, First Market | Hyde-Smith Odds, First Market | Colom Odds, Second Market | Hyde-Smith Odds, Second Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. Nov. 2 | 14.5% | 85.5% | 17% | 84% |
| 7 p.m. Nov. 3 | 19.5% | 80.5% | 20% | 81% |
| Midnight Nov. 4 | 7.4% | 92.5% | 8.8% | 90.9% |
| 5 a.m. Nov. 4 | 82.7% | 17.2% | 83% | 18% |
| 6:30 a.m. Nov. 5 | 96.7% | 3.6% | 96.3% | 3.9% |
Source: election-market prices from two markets, pulled at the times shown. First-market figures are the midpoint quote at the top of each hour; second-market figures are the last trade in the hour ending at that time.
A Colom contract bought at 7.4% at midnight had gained about 75 points by the 5 a.m. pull, and a Hyde-Smith contract bought at 92.5% had lost the same. The move came with Colom ahead by only 43 votes, so the 82.7% read as a price on the ballots still to be counted rather than on the lead, which a single batch of returns could have reversed.
The Second Market Moved In Step
The second market never sat more than two points from the first on Colom through the night. It closed the midnight hour at 8.8% for Colom and 90.9% for Hyde-Smith, crossed to 60% for Colom at 1 a.m. and closed the 5 a.m. hour at 83% and 18%. Each contract trades on its own, so the two sides there added to 101 rather than 100.
By Thursday morning the first market had Colom at 96.7% and Hyde-Smith at 3.6%, and the second had them at 96.3% and 3.9%. In the Mississippi election odds, both markets make Colom the favorite, and the open question is the 3 to 4 points still priced on Hyde-Smith.
Colom Led By 43 Votes After Midnight
The Mississippi Free Press put Colom’s edge at 43 votes shortly after midnight, with close to 1 million ballots tallied, and reported that Hinds County had stopped counting until morning. WLBT’s tally as of 3 a.m. Wednesday had Colom at 462,821 votes, Hyde-Smith at 462,778 and the independent in the race, Ty Pinkins, at 19,935, just over 2%.
Colom said the ballots still outstanding would carry him to victory, WLBT reported. Hyde-Smith’s campaign said in a statement carried by WLBT that it remained confident she would be reelected once every legally cast vote was counted. Mississippi last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1982, when John C. Stennis won his final term, the Free Press noted. A plurality decides the seat, since Mississippi holds no runoff for a federal general election, whatever the final margin.
Colom’s Margin Grew To 1,138 By Wednesday Night
By Wednesday night, ABC News’s results had Colom at 464,926 votes, or 49%, and Hyde-Smith at 463,788, or 48.9%, a gap of 1,138 votes, with an estimated 4% of the expected vote still out and no call on the race. Pinkins had 19,934. The lead grew by 1,095 votes from the 3 a.m. tally, so the count has moved Colom’s way since the 5 a.m. pull, though 1,138 votes is about 0.12 percentage points of the vote.
About 3,600 mail ballots were still out as of Secretary of State Michael Watson’s Wednesday afternoon update, ABC News reported. Colom’s campaign manager estimated about 15,000 provisional ballots remain, while Watson’s office said it had no definitive number. Against a margin near 1,100 votes, pools of that size leave room for the count to move, and that room is what the 3.6% and 3.9% still priced on Hyde-Smith on Thursday morning cover.
Voters without acceptable photo ID can still have affidavit ballots counted by showing valid ID to a clerk by Nov. 10, the Biloxi Sun Herald reported.
No Recount Process, Certification Due Nov. 13
There is no recount on the table. Watson’s office told ABC News the state has no such procedure, no candidate can ask for one and no margin sets one off. The remedy that does exist comes after certification: a candidate may inspect the ballot boxes and go to court over anything the inspection turns up. Mail ballots count if they carry an Election Day postmark and reach the clerk within five business days, a window that closes Nov. 10.
The next fixed dates are counties’ Nov. 13 certification deadline and the state’s Dec. 3 deadline, the Biloxi Sun Herald reported.
