Arizona Governor Primary Recap: Biggs Sweeps the Republican Field, but Hobbs Owns the November Edge
- Rep. Andy Biggs won the Republican nomination for Arizona governor Tuesday, pulling in about 71% of the vote, a near-certainty the markets had pegged at close to 97% on Polymarket.
- For traders, the only open question was the size of the win; with runner-up Rep. David Schweikert at 16%, the live action had moved to Kalshi's market on Biggs's margin.
- The real money is on the fall. As the returns rolled in, Gov. Katie Hobbs was trading around 81% on Kalshi and 77% on Polymarket to win a second term, leaving Biggs an underdog in the low 20s.
- Republicans also set their statewide slate: state Senate President Warren Petersen for attorney general, state Rep. Alex Kolodin for secretary of state, and former sheriff Mark Lamb in Biggs's open East Valley House seat.
- The results fit a state that pulls both ways at once: Hobbs won in 2022 by roughly 17,000 votes, yet Trump carried Arizona by about 5.5 points two years later.
PHOENIX - Andy Biggs had been the front-runner in Arizona's Republican primary for governor so long that Tuesday's vote read less like a decision than a formality. The East Valley congressman and former state Senate president rolled to the nomination over fellow Rep. David Schweikert and two little-known challengers, closing out a contest the prediction markets had treated as over since winter. His prize is the race everyone has been circling: a November showdown with Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. The markets, even now, still favor her to keep the job.
A Blowout Nobody Priced as a Question
Biggs took roughly 71% of the Republican vote, a margin that made the primary a coronation rather than a fight. Schweikert, the Scottsdale-area congressman who gave up a swing House district for the run, finished a distant second at about 16%, with businessmen Scott Neely and Ken Miceli splitting the rest. The race had not been competitive since February, when Karrin Taylor Robson, who had spent more than $20 million chasing the office in 2022, dropped out and left Biggs alone on the party's right. A Trump endorsement has been close to decisive in Arizona GOP primaries lately, and Biggs gave the pattern no reason to break.
The Margin Was the Only Game in Town
At about 97 cents on Polymarket, betting Biggs to win offered almost nothing back. A near-lock returns barely more than it costs to put down. So the sharp money went hunting for a better question, and Kalshi supplied one: how large would the margin be? That line, not the outcome, was where Tuesday's real handicapping lived. Schweikert, stuck near 2% on the board, was priced as an afterthought.
The Fight That Actually Counts
The instant the nomination was settled, the market's focus leapt to a general election both major exchanges still rate as close. As the Tuesday-night numbers landed, Kalshi had Hobbs near 81% to win reelection and Polymarket near 77%, parking the new Republican nominee around 20%. The site's governor betting odds tell the same story. The gap says less about Biggs than about the odd geometry of Arizona politics: Hobbs edged Kari Lake in 2022 by roughly 17,000 votes, the tightest race for the office the state has ever seen, but Trump carried Arizona by about 5.5 points in 2024 and Republicans still hold a registration edge. Money favors the incumbent, too. Hobbs went into the summer with something near $7 million on hand to Biggs's $1 million or so, and one spring poll put her up by double digits. Either way, the read is the same: this is a state won at the wire, where a Republican near 20% is hardly out of it.
Down the Ballot, the GOP Sets Its Lineup
The governor's race was not the only thing decided. Petersen and Kolodin captured the Republican nominations for attorney general and secretary of state, the two statewide offices the party most wants to flip. Petersen, who presides over the state Senate, pulled about 56% past Rodney Glassman and now faces Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes, herself the survivor of a 2022 win decided by fewer than 300 votes. Kolodin, a lawyer in the Legislature, beat former state party chair Gina Swoboda 58% to 42% and draws Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes in a matchup with outsized stakes, since the winner will oversee Arizona's 2028 presidential vote. In the deep-red 5th District Biggs is vacating, Trump-backed former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb won a nomination that should keep the seat red.
No Senate Race, and a Brand-New Wrinkle
A pair of oddities shapes the rest of the ballot. For the first time since 2014, Arizona has no U.S. Senate contest, which lifts the governor's race to the top of the ticket and drags the betting interest with it. There is also a first-time twist: under Proposition 131, approved by voters in 2022, each governor nominee will name a lieutenant governor running mate after the primary, a factor the markets have barely begun to weigh. The hottest House races are in the 1st, 2nd and 6th districts, all worth tracking on the House race odds; the 6th, a chronic toss-up, pits Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza.
What the Odds Are Really Saying
Boil it down and the message is plain. There was no money in the primary itself; the only edge Tuesday night was in calling the margin. The uncertainty, and the payoff, belong to November, and even those prices carry a warning label: they are the market's best estimate, house cut and all, not a final tally. Even a 4-to-1 favorite comes up short about a fifth of the time, and in a state this evenly split, turnout and Arizona's large bloc of independents could tip it either way.
Next Stop: November
The matchup is locked in: Biggs against Hobbs, with the governor favored but far from safe. Biggs will wager that the rightward drift that lifted Trump in 2024 reaches down the ballot; Hobbs will counter with incumbency, a fatter campaign account, and a national mood that has turned rough for Republicans this year. Both camps still owe voters a running mate under the new rules, and the first head-to-head polls of the general will give traders something fresh to price. Anyone watching the fall can track the election odds as the race takes shape. For now, Arizona has turned overnight from a primary with no suspense into a general that may not settle until the final count.
