- Byron Donalds is -625 to take the Florida governor’s seat, a price that implies about 86% for the Republican.
- A St. Pete Polls survey taken Sept. 15-17 had the race tied, Donalds at 43.5% and Jolly at 43.4%.
- David Jolly on Sunday ruled out every fall debate with Donalds, citing the campaign’s tone.
- Donalds says he agreed to three debates and Jolly to 12 before Jolly ruled out all of them.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Byron Donalds is priced at -625 to become Florida’s next governor, even though a St. Pete Polls survey splits him from David Jolly by a tenth of a point, and Jolly on Sunday ruled out facing him on a debate stage before the Nov. 3 election.
A Debate Cycle Called Off
David Jolly’s campaign confirmed Sunday it would skip every debate with Donalds before November. In a statement, Jolly said the tenor of the race meant debates this cycle would not create a constructive, honest conversation. On social media, Jolly put it more bluntly: “You can’t debate a liar.” Donalds fired back on the same platform, disputing how many debates each side had actually proposed and accusing Jolly of backing out. Both men accepted multiple debate invitations last week, but their campaigns never settled on a shared stage.
A Poll That Doesn’t Match The Market
Of 913 likely voters reached Sept. 15-17, 43.5% backed Donalds and 43.4% chose Jolly, according to St. Pete Polls. Another 4% named a different candidate and 9% had no pick yet, leaving the gap well inside the 3.2-point margin of error. Independents in the same sample favored Jolly by 12 points, a gap Donalds needs to offset elsewhere in the electorate if the toss-up numbers hold into November.
None of that shows up in the price on the election odds board. Donalds is -625, Jolly is +385, a split that implies roughly 86% for the Republican against about 21% for the Democrat, well outside what a three-point poll margin can explain. Backing Donalds at that number means laying $625 to win $100, a price that asks a bettor to trust the market over a tied survey taken barely a week earlier.
Where The Race Goes From Here
Donalds reached the general election by beating 10 rivals in the Aug. 18 Republican primary, covered in the Florida 2026 primary recap. The contest is one of several listed among the Florida election odds, and it heads into October with the betting market and the public polling telling different stories. With no debate scheduled and Election Day 42 days away, voters won’t get a sanctioned head-to-head look at the two nominees before they decide.
