- Fewer than 22 Republican governors is priced at 39.5%, up 11.5 points in a week, as the 24-or-25 bracket fell to 14.5%.
- Aaron Ford is at 79.5% to unseat Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo, up 13 points in a week and 32 in a month.
- Democrats are priced as favorites in five Republican-held seats, and flipping all five would cut Republicans from 26 governors to 21.
- A Noble Predictive Insights poll from Sept. 22-26 had Lombardo ahead by 2 points among likely voters.
LAS VEGAS – Election markets now favor fewer than 22 Republican governors after the Nov. 3 midterms, a bracket priced at 39.5% on Oct. 30, as Nevada Democrat Aaron Ford rose to 79.5% against Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. The governor race odds 2026 have swung toward Democrats in a week, with the bracket for 24 or 25 Republican governors falling 15 points to 14.5% as voters prepare to elect 36 governors.
Fewer Than 22 Gained 11.5 Points In A Week While 24 Or 25 Lost 15
The main election market sorts the final Republican governor count into brackets. Fewer than 22 leads at 39.5%, ahead of 22 or 23 at 33%, and the two lowest brackets together price at 72.5%. Republicans hold 26 of the 50 governorships now, so fewer than 22 means a net loss of five or more.
A second market prices “at least” thresholds instead of brackets. It has 24 or more Republican governors at 26 to 31 cents, which leaves 23 or fewer near 69 to 74 cents, in line with the main market. The table shows the four lowest brackets.
| Republican governors after Nov. 3 | Odds | Week change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 22 | 39.5% | +11.5 |
| 22 or 23 | 33% | -1.5 |
| 24 or 25 | 14.5% | -15 |
| 26 or 27 | 3.5% | -7 |
Source: election-market prices pulled at about 5:25 a.m. ET on Oct. 30, with week changes measured from about 6 a.m. ET on Oct. 23. Prices are the midpoint of the bid and ask, and brackets of 28 or more total about 5%.
Five Republican-Held Seats Price For Democrats, Enough To Reach 21
The 36 governorships on the Nov. 3 ballot are split evenly, 18 held by each party. Five Republican-held seats carry election odds of 62.5% or better for Democrats, in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada and Georgia. Flipping all five, with Democrats keeping every seat they hold now, would take Republicans from 26 governors to 21, inside the fewer-than-22 bracket. Georgia, at 62.5%, is the thinnest of the five.
The table lists those races and the other seats that bear on the count, with the party that holds each seat now in parentheses.
| State | Democrat | Odds | Republican | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska (R) | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 88% | Bernadette Wilson | 10.5% |
| Iowa (R) | Rob Sand | 86.5% | Zach Lahn | 13% |
| Ohio (R) | Amy Acton | 82% | Vivek Ramaswamy | 18% |
| Nevada (R) | Aaron Ford | 79.5% | Joe Lombardo | 19.5% |
| Georgia (R) | Keisha Lance Bottoms | 62.5% | Rick Jackson | 37.5% |
| Texas (R) | Gina Hinojosa | 38.5% | Greg Abbott | 61.8% |
| Florida (R) | David Jolly | 30.5% | Byron Donalds | 69.5% |
| Wisconsin (D) | David Crowley | 85.5% | Tom Tiffany | 14.5% |
| Arizona (D) | Katie Hobbs | 93% | Andy Biggs | 7% |
| Kansas (D) | Cindy Holscher | 23.5% | Ty Masterson | 76% |
Source: election-market prices pulled between about 5:25 and 5:35 a.m. ET on Oct. 30. Each party’s price is quoted separately, so a race’s two prices can total slightly over or under 100%. Alaska’s market prices named candidates, and Wilson is the leading Republican of three on the state’s ranked-choice ballot.
Ford Is Up 13 Points In A Week As Polling Stays Close
Nevada moved the most of the five. The Nevada election odds show Ford, the state attorney general, at 79.5%, up from 47.5% a month ago, while Lombardo fell 14 points in a week to 19.5%. At the second market Ford is at 77 to 78 cents and Lombardo at 22 to 23, a slightly tighter race than the main market shows.
The polling is closer than the price. A Noble Predictive Insights poll of 708 likely voters, fielded Sept. 22-26, had Lombardo ahead by 2 points, inside its 3.68-point margin of error, with 7% for an independent candidate and 9% undecided. At 79.5%, a Ford ticket has about 20 points of upside left, a thin cushion if the polling is the more accurate read.
Kansas Pulls The Count Back Toward 22 While Florida And Texas Gain
Kansas works against the Democratic total. Democrats hold the seat now, but Republican Ty Masterson is at 76% against Cindy Holscher at 23.5%, and a Republican pickup there would put the count back at 22 unless Democrats flip a sixth Republican-held seat. Two other Republican-held seats are gaining on the governor election odds board. David Jolly in Florida rose 11.5 points in a week to 30.5% against Byron Donalds, and Gina Hinojosa in Texas rose 7.5 points to 38.5% against Gov. Greg Abbott.
Democratic holds matter as much as flips, since each lost seat adds one governor back to the Republican total. Wisconsin’s David Crowley is at 85.5% over Tom Tiffany, up 5 points in a week, and Arizona’s Katie Hobbs is at 93% over Andy Biggs. Voters decide all of these races on Nov. 3.
