- Hawaii holds its primary on Saturday, August 8. There is no Senate race this year. On the ballot are the governor's office, both U.S. House seats, and the open job of lieutenant governor.
- Gov. Josh Green is cruising to renomination. He faces only minor challengers, holds strong approval ratings, and is a heavy favorite to win a second term in November.
- The real fight is in the 1st District. Longtime Rep. Ed Case is only a slight favorite over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, with Polymarket near 50 percent to 43.
- Case is one of several moderate Democrats facing a primary this year in an anti-incumbent mood. A union-backed challenger and a Jones Act fight have turned his race into a coin flip.
- With no Senate seat and a deep-blue map, the Democratic primary decides almost everything. The general election is safe Democratic across the board.
HONOLULU - Hawaii votes Saturday, one of the last states to hold its primary, and in a place this blue the Democratic primary is the whole ballgame. At the top, there is nothing to see: Gov. Josh Green is coasting to a second nomination. But two races below him are worth a bettor's time. In urban Honolulu, a 13-year congressman is suddenly in a real fight, and the open seat for lieutenant governor is a genuine scramble. You can find the full slate on the Hawaii election odds, but the action this year is down the ticket.
Governor: Green's Free Ride
Start at the top, where there is no contest. Gov. Josh Green, a former ER doctor elected in 2022, is running for a second term, and no serious Democrat filed against him. His three primary opponents are little known, and one of them drew 590 votes the last time he ran while Green pulled more than 158,000. On the governor odds, Green is close to a lock for the nomination, and the general is rated Safe Democratic. Hawaii has not elected a Republican governor since 2006, and Green won his first term by nearly two to one. His high approval is the simplest reason no big name bothered to run. Barring a shock, he is the next governor.
HI-01: The One Real Fight
The race to watch is in the 1st District, urban Honolulu. Rep. Ed Case, 73 and a 13-year veteran of Congress, is facing a serious primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, and the market treats it as a coin flip. Polymarket has Case at about 50 percent and Keohokalole at 43. That is a striking spot for a longtime incumbent, and it is no accident. Case is a moderate who has angered his own party by voting for some Republican measures, and the New York Times named him one of six Democrats vulnerable in a primary this year. Keohokalole, 42, is running to Case's left with backing from progressive groups and unions, and a fight over the Jones Act, the shipping law that drives up prices in Hawaii, has put maritime money behind the challenger. A late-2025 poll had Case up about 18 points, but the race has tightened since. In the other seat, the 2nd District, Rep. Jill Tokuda is safe. So on the House odds, HI-01 is the only Hawaii race with real suspense, the kind of incumbent scare that has already toppled members elsewhere this cycle.
Down the Ballot: An Open Race for Lieutenant Governor
The other live contest is for lieutenant governor, which Hawaii fills in a separate primary before pairing the winner with the governor in the fall. The seat is open, because Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke chose not to run again. Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami is the front-runner in a crowded Democratic field that also includes state House Majority Leader Della Au Belatti. It is a low-profile race, but a real one, and the sort of open-seat scramble where a small, late-summer electorate can surprise. Whoever wins joins Green's ticket and, given the state's lean, is likely to take the office in November.
The Bettor's Read
Hawaii is a one-party state, so the bets that matter are all Democratic primaries. Green is chalk, not worth a ticket. The Senate is not on the ballot. That leaves HI-01 as the only real wager in the state, and it is a good one: a genuine coin flip where a 13-year incumbent is fighting for his career against a union-backed challenger, in a year when incumbents keep losing. If you think the anti-incumbent wave reaches the islands, Keohokalole at 43 percent is live value. If you trust Case's money and long record, he is worth backing at even money. The lieutenant governor race is the other flyer, harder to price because the market barely covers it. Everything else is safe Democratic. For the latest election odds, Hawaii proves that even in the bluest state, the drama just moves to the primary.
