- Nithya Raman shortened to -165 from -150 to win the Los Angeles mayoral runoff, and Karen Bass lengthened to +125 from +115.
- Backing Raman at -165 breaks even only if she wins 62.3% of the time, while Bass at +125 needs 44.4%.
- Raman leads 39% to 28% in the Berkeley IGS and Los Angeles Times survey, and 33% are undecided.
- Of Spencer Pratt’s June backers, 63% have yet to pick, with Bass ahead 22% to 16% in that group.
LOS ANGELES – Nithya Raman shortened to -165 from -150 in the Los Angeles mayor odds, with incumbent Karen Bass drifting to +125 from +115, 29 days out from their Nov. 3 runoff.
Raman Flips From +165 Underdog To -165 Favorite
Raman, a City Council member, was a +165 underdog and Bass a -215 favorite in mid-September. The board flipped to Raman at -150 and Bass at +115 within two days of a new poll. The move to -165 arrives 12 days after that poll and mirrors her mid-September price, only reversed. It also sits far from the LA mayoral primary recap, which had Bass the clear favorite whether Pratt or Raman finished second.
| Candidate | Odds | Implies | Sept. 25 odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman | -165 | 62.3% | -150 |
| Karen Bass | +125 | 44.4% | +115 |
On the 2026 election odds board, a Raman bet at -165 costs $165 to win $100, $15 more than at -150, and lifts her break-even rate from 60.0% to 62.3%. A Bass bet at +125 pays $125 on $100 and breaks even at 44.4%.
The Price Now Sits On The Poll’s Decided Split
Online interviews with 2,150 likely voters from Sept. 15 to 20 fed the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey, which the Los Angeles Times co-sponsored, and the error margin is about 3 points, NBC Los Angeles reported. Raman holds 58% of the voters who have picked a side, 39 of 67 points.
Without the 6.7-point overround, -165 and +125 imply about 58% for her, up from about 56% at the Sept. 25 prices. A vote share and a win rate measure different things, but the match shows a market treating the lead as a lean.
One in three respondents has yet to commit. If every decided voter holds, Bass needs two of every three undecided voters just to tie, so a +125 ticket on her is a bet on a lopsided undecided break, a poll miss, or both.
Pratt’s Voters Hold The Swing
Spencer Pratt, best known from reality TV, ran third on June 2 with 25.5%, trailing Bass at 34.3% and Raman at 29.0% in the county’s certified count. Nearly two-thirds of his backers, 63%, still sit out the Bass-Raman choice, Fox LA reported, and the rest lean Bass, 22% to 16%. Raman’s lead is built on voters who have already decided, while the Pratt voters who have moved lean toward the mayor.
The Bass Campaign Calls The Poll An Outlier
Campaign spokesman Alex Stack dismissed it as “one outlier poll which got the June primary wrong,” Fox LA reported, and the campaign said surveys taken only online miss older and working-class voters who show up on Election Day. The age split gives the argument some room. Raman draws 66% in the youngest bracket, ages 18 to 29, and Bass carries those 65 and up 41% to 21%, so a runoff electorate older than the poll’s sample would narrow the gap.
The same pollster’s late-May survey, also from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Times, had Bass ahead 26% to 25%, and she won the primary by about 5 points. That miss understated her margin by about 4 points, and a repeat would trim Raman’s 11-point lead to roughly 7.
The Times’ coverage also cited two tighter surveys, Raman’s own September poll at 44% to 39% in her favor and an August survey paid for by a pro-Bass independent group showing the mayor up 41% to 35%.
Ballots Are Out Ahead Of An Oct. 13 Debate
Los Angeles County began mailing vote-by-mail ballots Oct. 1, the county registrar said, and vote centers begin opening Oct. 24 ahead of Election Day on Nov. 3. Statewide races on the same ballot carry their own California election odds.
The candidates’ next scheduled meeting is a one-hour debate at 7 p.m. PT on Oct. 13, produced by NBC4 and Telemundo 52 with Loyola Marymount University. Colleen Williams and Conan Nolan of NBC4 and Alejandra Ortiz of Telemundo 52 will moderate.
