- Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford both won their primaries Tuesday, setting up a long-expected governor’s race that handicappers call a toss-up.
- Kalshi gives Democrats about a 56% chance to win the governor’s office in November, with Polymarket close behind. One market, PredictIt, has leaned Republican.
- In the open 2nd District, Trump-backed David Flippo beat a Lombardo-backed rival — a quiet test of who holds more sway in the state GOP.
- Democratic Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Steven Horsford all advanced, with Lee’s 3rd District seen as Nevada’s tightest House race.
- Control of the U.S. House could hinge on Nevada, where Republicans now hold a slim 217-212 majority.
LAS VEGAS — Nevada voters chose their nominees Tuesday, and the state’s marquee race is now locked in. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo will meet Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford in November. Both men won their primaries without much trouble.
The clash was expected for months. Now that it is official, the betting money is starting to move.
Here is where the election odds stand as the general election comes into view.
Governor: A Rematch of the State’s Political Divide
Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, breezed past a small field of Republican challengers. He was never in real danger. Ford had an easy night too. He took about two-thirds of the vote over Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill and a few others.
That sets up one of the closest governor’s races in the country.
Kalshi gives Democrats about a 56% chance to win the seat. Republicans sit in the mid-40s. Polymarket shows a similar picture, with Democrats near 54%. One market, PredictIt, has gone the other way and listed Republicans as slight favorites for Gubernatorial odds. The split says a lot about how tight this race looks.
The polling backs that up. A December Emerson College survey had the two men tied at 41% each, with many voters still undecided. A spring poll gave Lombardo a one-point edge. In plain terms, it is close to a coin flip.
Lombardo is no easy target. In 2022, he was the only challenger in the country to beat a sitting governor, edging Democrat Steve Sisolak by about 1.5 points. He has run as a practical Republican who works with a Democratic Legislature.
But the map is tricky for him. Nevada is a true swing state, and Democrats badly want the governor’s office back. Ford and his allies have tied Lombardo to President Donald Trump and to higher prices, slow tourism and broad economic worry. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.
House Races: Three Democrats Try to Hold On
Nevada’s House seats also pulled in big money.
The most-watched race is in the 3rd District. Democratic Rep. Susie Lee won her primary with room to spare. She will face Republican Marty O’Donnell, a composer best known for the music in the “Halo” video game series. O’Donnell had backing from both Trump and Lombardo. The district is Nevada’s tightest. Lee won it by roughly 10,000 votes in 2024.
In the 1st District, longtime Democratic Rep. Dina Titus advanced. She will take on Republican state Sen. Carrie Buck, who also carried Trump’s support. Democrats are favored here based on House of Representatives odds, but Buck has posted strong fundraising.
The 2nd District is the one Republicans expect to keep. Rep. Mark Amodei is retiring. Retired Lt. Col. David Flippo won the Republican primary after Trump endorsed him. He beat former state Sen. James Settelmeyer, who had Lombardo’s backing. That turned the contest into a quiet test of who holds more pull in the state party. Trump’s pick won. Flippo will face Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson. The seat leans Republican, and no Democrat has ever won it.
In the 4th District, Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford had no primary foe. He will face Republican rancher Cody Whipple.
The stakes reach far past Nevada. Republicans hold the U.S. House by a thin 217-212 margin. A seat or two in the Silver State could help decide who runs the chamber.
Down-Ballot: A Bitter Fight for Attorney General
The nastiest primary of the night was for attorney general. State Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro beat state Treasurer Zach Conine on the Democratic side after a costly ad war. She will face Republican Adriana Guzmán Fralick, who won her primary with Trump’s late endorsement.
What It Means for November
For bettors looking at election odds in Nevada, the takeaway is simple. The governor’s race is a real toss-up, and the markets give Democrats only a small edge. That kind of lead can vanish quickly in a swing state, where the economy and turnout often decide the winner.
