- Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, won the Democratic primary in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District with 47% of the vote. She will face Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in November.
- Kean has been absent from Congress since March 5 due to an unspecified illness, a development that has significantly raised the election odds for a Democratic flip of NJ-7. Kalshi gives Democrats a 78% edge in November.
- Republican Justin Murphy won the GOP Senate nomination and will face incumbent Sen. Cory Booker in November. The race is not expected to be competitive.
- In NJ-9, Democrat Nellie Pou ran unopposed and Republicans are still counting votes between Tiffany Burress and Rosemary Pino. The race is competitive given Trump won a county in the district in 2024.
- New Jersey’s primaries produced the expected nominees in most races. The NJ-7 contest, supercharged by Kean’s health situation, is now the state’s most-watched general election contest.
TRENTON, N.J. — New Jersey’s primary produced its expected nominees in most races Tuesday night. But one story dominated everything else: the state of Rep. Tom Kean Jr.
Kean has not voted in Congress since March 5. He has given no public explanation for his absence. And now he faces Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who won the Democratic primary in his battleground 7th District with a commanding 47% of the vote.
Kalshi had already priced NJ-7 at 78% Democratic in November. Kean’s months-long disappearance could push those New Jersey election odds even further in Bennett’s direction.
NJ-7: Bennett Wins Big, Kean’s Situation Looms Large
The AP called Bennett’s race just before 9 p.m. Tuesday. She finished with 47% of the vote, well ahead of Michael Roth, Tina Shah, and Brian Varela.
Bennett is a healthcare executive and mother of two who has drawn comparisons to Gov. Mikie Sherrill because of her military background. She won the 2022 race for governor as a Democrat in a state that Republicans had held for years.
The district itself includes farm towns, bedroom communities, and President Donald Trump’s Bedminster golf club. Kean won it in his last contested cycle by five points over Democrat Sue Altman in 2022. He ran unopposed in Tuesday’s Republican primary.
But Kean’s absence is the headline now. He has not voted in the House since March 5. No explanation has been offered publicly. His campaign has issued statements indicating he will be a candidate in November, but the prolonged silence has fueled speculation.
Before the primary, Kalshi gave Democrats a 78% chance and Polymarket a 75% chance of flipping the seat. Those numbers were built on an expectation of a functional Republican opponent. Kean’s health situation and the questions around it could drive those House election odds even higher.
Senate: Booker Advances Easily, Murphy Has a Long Road Ahead
Sen. Cory Booker ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, as expected. Justin Murphy won the Republican nomination, besting several opponents.
Murphy had previously run for Senate in 2024, finishing third in the Republican primary with 11.2% of the vote. His win on Tuesday gives him the Republican nomination, but the path to beating Booker is steep.
New Jersey has not elected a Republican senator since Clifford Case won his final term in 1972. Senate odds at Kalshi and 270toWin both treat the seat as safely Democratic. Booker’s long Senate floor speech earlier this year drew national attention, and his profile heading into the fall race is as strong as it has been in years.
NJ-9: Pou Uncontested, Republican Race Still Counting
Rep. Nellie Pou ran unopposed in the Democratic primary for NJ-9. On the Republican side, attorney Tiffany Burress and Clifton City Councilwoman Rosemary Pino were still being counted Tuesday night. The AP had not called the race.
Pou is a first-term incumbent who won her seat in 2024 with 50.7% of the vote. That narrow margin, combined with Trump winning Bergen County — one of the district’s largest — in 2024, makes NJ-9 a Republican target for November.
Kalshi and Cook Political Report both treat NJ-9 as competitive. Democrats have a structural edge there, but the shifting political landscape in northern New Jersey’s Latino and working-class communities gives Republicans a credible argument.
Other Results: NJ-12 and NJ-2 Set for November
In the 12th Congressional District — the open seat created by Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement — Dr. Adam Hamawy won the Democratic primary. He will face Republican Gregg Mele in November in a race Kalshi rates as safely Democratic.
In NJ-2, Zack Mullock won the Democratic primary and will challenge Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a four-term Republican who switched parties from Democrat in 2019. Democrats have long viewed that district as a potential pickup, and Mullock’s nomination puts them back in contention there.
The Bottom Line
New Jersey’s primary went as election odds suggested in most races. The Senate is settled. NJ-12 is safe Democratic. NJ-9 is competitive and now has its Republican nominee on the way.
NJ-7 is the race that matters most for bettors. Bennett is a strong nominee with a military background and crossover appeal. Kean is an incumbent whose absence has lasted three months with no explanation. The 78% Kalshi price for Democrats may not fully reflect how unusual that situation is.
Watch the NJ-9 Republican primary result when it is called. Whoever emerges from the Burress-Pino contest will immediately step into one of the more underrated competitive races in the country heading into November.
All New Jersey general elections are set for November 3, 2026.
