- Both markets have Democrats above 72% for the Senate on Nov. 2, after a week of 10- and 8-point gains.
- Democrats trade at 93.8% and 94.5% to win the House, 3.5 and 2 points higher than a week ago.
- Republicans, priced at 28% and 28.5% for the Senate, hold 53 seats there, leaving Democrats four short of a majority.
- Sportsbook lines after the weekend have Democrats at -285 for the Senate and -1200 for the House.
WASHINGTON – Two election markets priced Democrats at 73% and 72.5% to win the U.S. Senate on Monday, Nov. 2, up from 63% and 64.5% a week earlier, with their U.S. House price at 93.8% and 94.5%. Republicans sat at 28% and 28.5% on the Senate a day before the Nov. 3 midterms.
Senate Price Gained 10 Points At One Market And 8 At The Other In A Week
At the first market, Democrats stood at 73% on Nov. 2 with a bid of 72 and an ask of 73, against a prior close of 72% and an Oct. 26 close of 63%. The second market moved from 64.5% to 72.5%. The table sets the Democratic Senate election odds side by side.
| Market | Odds Oct. 26 | Odds Nov. 2 | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | 63% | 73% | +10.0 |
| Second | 64.5% | 72.5% | +8.0 |
Source: Democratic U.S. Senate contracts at two election markets. Oct. 26 is the daily close at the first and the week-earlier price at the second; Nov. 2 reflects a pull at about 5:35 a.m. ET.
The climb extends the move in midterm control odds from Oct. 27, when Democrats were at 65% and 66.5%. At 73%, the first market sits 4 points above the 69% close it posted on Oct. 22, the high of the Oct. 14-27 window that story tracked, and the contract closed higher on each day from Oct. 29 through Nov. 1.
House Price Holds Near 94%, About 21 Points Above The Senate
The election odds put Democrats at 93.8% for the U.S. House at the first market against a prior close of 93.1%, while Republicans fell to 6.4% from 6.8%. The second market had Democrats at 94.5%, up 2 points in a week. That leaves the House price about 21 points above the Senate price at the first market and 22 at the second, narrower than the 25-point gap on Oct. 27.
A Democratic House contract at 94 cents pays 6 cents of profit on a $1 payout, so the market treats the chamber as close to decided. A Democratic Senate contract at 73 cents pays 27 cents, the larger return of the two.
Sportsbook Lines Have Democrats At -285 For The Senate And -1200 For The House
Sportsbook lines lean the same way after the weekend. Democrats are -285 for Senate control and Republicans +210, a heavier Democratic favorite than the -200 and +150 posted Oct. 9. The House line is Democrats -1200 and Republicans +600. Backing Democrats at -285 risks $285 to win $100, while the House at -1200 risks $1,200 for the same $100, which marks the House as the closer call to settled.
Democrats Need A Net Gain Of Four Seats On Nov. 3
Republicans control 53 of the 100 seats, so Democrats must flip a net four to take the chamber, according to CBS News. CBS lists 12 key Senate races. Voters settle both chambers on Election Day, Nov. 3.
