- Tennessee voted Thursday, and the favorites advanced across the board. Sen. Marsha Blackburn won the Republican primary for governor and faces Democrat Jerri Green in November.
- The markets called the winner, but not the margin. Blackburn was a 95 percent favorite, and she won, yet she took just 43.6 percent to Rep. John Rose's 32.9. A three-way field helped her.
- The Senate race was a formality. Sen. Bill Hagerty ran unopposed for the Republican nod and will face Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, a heavy underdog, this fall.
- The general election is safe Republican. Tennessee has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006 or a Democratic senator since 1990, and Trump won the state by nearly 30 points.
- In the open 6th District, state Rep. Johnny Garrett won the Republican primary and is all but certain to head to Congress from the safely red seat.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. - Tennessee voted Thursday, and the story was the one everyone expected, with a twist in the numbers. Sen. Marsha Blackburn won the Republican primary for governor, the race the whole state was watching, and the prediction markets had her as a near-lock, so on the winner they were right. What they oversold was the size of the win. Blackburn took only about 44 percent, and Rep. John Rose finished a closer second than the odds implied. In a state this red, that primary all but settles who the next governor will be. The full board is on the Tennessee election odds.
Governor: Blackburn Wins, Tighter Than Priced
Blackburn won the Republican primary with 43.6 percent, ahead of Rose at 32.9 and state Rep. Monty Fritts at 23.5, with all 95 counties counted. She is the nominee, and in Tennessee that is most of the battle. For bettors, it was a clean call with an asterisk. Polymarket and Kalshi had Blackburn near 95 percent to win, and she did, so the market named the right candidate. But a 95 percent favorite winning with a plurality, not a majority, and by only about 11 points, is a reminder that a heavy price is not the same as a blowout. A May poll had her at 63 percent, and she finished well below that. Rose, a wealthy congressman, loaned his campaign about $13 million and closed the gap late. The fact that he and Fritts split the field almost certainly helped Blackburn, and one-on-one it might have been closer. On the Democratic side, Memphis Councilmember Jerri Green won her primary with 69 percent. She now faces Blackburn in a race the governor odds call Safe Republican. One note for later: because Blackburn is a sitting senator, a win in November would open her Senate seat and hand the next governor a temporary appointment to make.
Senate and House: Chalk All the Way Down
There was nothing to bet in the Senate race. Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty ran unopposed for renomination, has a Trump endorsement, and holds more than $5 million in the bank. He will face Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, the party's 2020 nominee, who won a low-dollar primary in which no candidate raised more than $10,000. On the Senate odds, Hagerty is a lock. Tennessee has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since Al Gore in 1990. In the House, the one open seat produced the most interesting result down the ballot. In the 6th District that Rose gave up to run for governor, state Rep. Johnny Garrett won the Republican primary and, in a safely red seat, is headed to Congress. The rest of the map held to form. Republican Rep. Andy Ogles faced a primary challenge in the 5th District, the one seat Democrats hope to contest this fall, and Democrat Steve Cohen's Memphis seat stays blue. One thing to watch on the House race odds: Tennessee, like Missouri and Alabama, has opened a mid-decade redistricting fight that could redraw the map before November.
The Bettor's Read
Tennessee was a chalk night. Every favorite advanced, and the markets called all the top races, so there were no upsets to cash. The only real lesson was Blackburn's margin. A 95 percent favorite is still a favorite, but a plurality win over a well-funded rival shows the number was more about whether she would win than about winning big. Now the state settles into a fall with almost nothing to bet. Blackburn is a heavy favorite for governor, Hagerty is a heavy favorite for Senate, and the general is Safe Republican from top to bottom, in a state that has not backed a Democrat statewide in 20 years. The one thread to follow is the redistricting fight, which could still reshape a House seat or two. As always, primary-night prices settle fast once the nominees are set, so refresh before you act. For the full board of election odds, Tennessee delivered exactly what the market expected, and a general election that is mostly already decided.
