Utah Primary Results: A New Map Hands Democrats a Seat as McAdams Wins UT-01
- Utah's primary was really about a map. A court-ordered redraw turned the 1st District from deep red to solidly Democratic, and former Rep. Ben McAdams won the Democratic nomination to claim it, putting his party on track to take a Utah House seat for the first time in years.
- The markets saw it coming. Polymarket had McAdams near 97% to win the nomination, and he ran away from a field that included Bernie Sanders-backed state Sen. Nate Blouin.
- The Republican incumbents held. Drawn into new districts, Rep. Blake Moore beat back a challenge from his right in UT-02, about 58% to 42%, and Rep. Celeste Maloy turned away former state Rep. Phil Lyman in UT-03.
- With the redraw reshuffling four incumbents into three red seats, Rep. Mike Kennedy ran unopposed for the GOP nod in UT-04 after Rep. Burgess Owens retired.
- It was a clean night for the favorites. Unlike New York, Utah handed the betting markets no surprises; the only real drama was settled the day the new map was drawn.
SALT LAKE CITY. Utah's primary turned less on the candidates than on the map. A court-ordered redraw, finalized late last year, transformed the 1st Congressional District from a safe Republican seat into a solidly Democratic one anchored in Salt Lake City, and on Tuesday former Rep. Ben McAdams won the Democratic nomination to go claim it. The result puts Democrats in line to take a Utah House seat this fall, a near-impossibility under the old lines. The Republican primaries went to the incumbents, and the betting markets read every contest cleanly.
UT-01: The Map Made the Race
The headline was structural. After the Utah Supreme Court found the Legislature had gerrymandered the state, a district judge installed a new map late last year that packed most of Salt Lake County into a single seat. The redrawn 1st District, which Kamala Harris would have carried by 24 points, swung from deep red to deep blue, and it opened with no incumbent.
That made the Democratic primary the whole story, and McAdams led it from the start. The former congressman, who lost his old Salt Lake-area seat to Burgess Owens in 2020, won the nomination over state Sen. Nate Blouin, a progressive backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, in a crowded field. Polymarket had priced McAdams near 97% to win, and the count never threatened that number. Because the new district leans so heavily Democratic, he is the strong favorite to return to Congress in November, a likely Democratic pickup that the map, more than the primary, produced.
Moore and Maloy Turn Back the Right
The redraw also scrambled the Republicans, sliding four GOP incumbents toward three safe seats. Two drew challenges from their right, and both survived.
In the 2nd District, Rep. Blake Moore, who carried President Trump's endorsement, defeated state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee by about 58% to 42%. Moore, the vice chair of the House Republican Conference, will be a heavy favorite in November. In the 3rd, Rep. Celeste Maloy turned aside former state Rep. Phil Lyman, an anti-establishment favorite, in a sprawling district Trump won by more than 40 points. The fourth seat needed no primary: with Owens retiring, Rep. Mike Kennedy ran unopposed for the Republican nomination in a district the markets price near 90% to stay red.
A Quiet Night for the Books
For anyone watching the congressional race odds, Utah was the opposite of the same evening's New York drama. There were no upsets to miss. McAdams, near 97% on Polymarket, took the only competitive Democratic primary; the favored Republican incumbents won theirs; and the lone uncontested seat, UT-04, sat near 90% Republican for the fall. No favorite of consequence stumbled. Just remember those market percentages reflect a candidate's odds of winning, not the slice of the vote they would take.
The Real Contest Comes in November
Utah's June 23 vote settled the nominees, but the decision that mattered was made months earlier, in a courtroom. The new map gives Democrats a real shot at a Utah House seat for the first time in years, with McAdams positioned to take it, while the three Republican-leaning districts look secure for Moore, Maloy and Kennedy.
For the bigger picture, the redistricting odds are the ones to watch, in Utah and the other states still fighting over their lines. With the primary done,the election odds shift to a November map that, thanks to the courts, looks a little less red than it did a year ago.
