New York Primary Results: Espaillat Loses NY-13 in the Upset the Markets Missed
- New York's primary turned on its House races, and the headline was an upset the betting markets did not see coming. In NY-13, five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat lost the Democratic nomination to democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier, about 49% to 46%, even though traders had made him the favorite, near 56% on Polymarket and roughly two-thirds on Kalshi.
- The polls read it better than the markets. A Data for Progress survey in early June had Avila Chevalier ahead 39-35, and she became the sixth House incumbent to lose renomination this cycle.
- At the top of the ballot there was no contest. Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Bruce Blakeman both ran unopposed and are set for a November race the markets give Hochul about 90% to win.
- Where the markets were right: in NY-12, favorite Micah Lasher (near 68% on Kalshi) won the open Nadler seat with about 39%, and in NY-21, Trump-backed Anthony Constantino won easily over the GOP establishment's Robert Smullen.
- The night belonged to Mayor Zohran Mamdani, whose three endorsed challengers all won, Avila Chevalier in NY-13, Brad Lander over Rep. Dan Goldman in NY-10, and Claire Valdez in NY-07, one more than traders had priced.
ALBANY. New York's primary delivered the drama Maryland's never threatened to, and this time the betting markets did not see it coming. The marquee result was an upset. In upper Manhattan and the Bronx, five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat lost the 13th District Democratic primary to a 32-year-old democratic socialist, Darializa Avila Chevalier, even though traders had spent the final week pricing the incumbent as the favorite. At the top of the ticket, there was nothing to decide: Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Bruce Blakeman both ran unopposed, locking in a November matchup months in the making. The action, and the surprise, sat in a handful of House races, just as our New York primary preview flagged.
Governor: No Primary to Settle
There was no suspense at the top. Hochul, who narrowly won a full term in 2022, had drawn a challenge from Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, but he left the race in February and her field cleared from there. She runs with a new ticket mate, former New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams. The Republican contest dissolved when Rep. Elise Stefanik abandoned her own campaign in December, opening the lane for Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, who picked up President Trump's endorsement and the state party's backing.
That sets up a November race the markets see as one-sided. No Republican has captured the governorship since George Pataki in 2002, and the prediction markets put the Democrat around 90% to hold the office. Hochul's approval is soft, and Republicans intend to press affordability and crime, but New York's Democratic lean keeps her a wide favorite this fall.
NY-13: The Upset the Market Missed
The night's defining result came in the 13th, which runs across Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood and a slice of the Bronx. Avila Chevalier, a community organizer and democratic socialist endorsed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, knocked off Espaillat by about 49% to 46% with most ballots counted. The defeat made the 71-year-old chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus the sixth House incumbent to lose renomination this cycle.
Here the betting markets got it wrong. Heading into the vote, traders had backed the incumbent, with Espaillat near 56% on Polymarket and around two-thirds on Kalshi and Avila Chevalier the underdog. The polls told the other story. A Data for Progress survey in early June had put the challenger ahead, 39% to 35%, and the ballots followed the poll, not the market. Espaillat's establishment support, from Hochul to House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries to Attorney General Letitia James, could not save him.
The loss was one piece of a clean sweep for Mamdani. The mayor had endorsed three House challengers, and all three won: Avila Chevalier in NY-13, former city Comptroller Brad Lander over Rep. Dan Goldman in the 10th, and Claire Valdez in the open 7th. Traders had figured him to go two for three, pricing the NY-13 incumbent to hang on. He went three for three.
NY-12: The Favorite Holds Nadler's Open Seat
Manhattan's other big race broke the way the market expected. In the 12th, covering the Upper East and West sides and Midtown, Assembly member Micah Lasher won the contest to succeed Nadler, who is stepping down after more than three decades. Lasher, endorsed by Nadler and lifted by Bloomberg-linked spending, took roughly 39% of the vote. Fellow Assembly member Alex Bores, the target of dueling artificial-intelligence super PACs over his push to regulate the technology, landed near 35%, and Jack Schlossberg, a grandson of President John F. Kennedy, took about 10%.
Kalshi had made Lasher a clear favorite, near 68%, and Polymarket priced him higher still. He came through, and in a district this blue, the seat is effectively his in November.
NY-21: Trump's Pick Topples the Establishment
The lone Republican headliner went to the favorite too. In the open 21st, the sprawling North Country seat Stefanik is vacating, Sticker Mule chief executive Anthony Constantino beat state Assemblyman Robert Smullen by about 59% to 40%. Smullen held the state party, the Conservative Party and most county committees, plus an early polling lead, but Constantino had the heavier asset: a Trump endorsement.
The market sided with the president, not the apparatus. Polymarket made Constantino a heavy favorite, with Smullen stuck near 5%, and he won by close to 20 points. One catch for the fall: Smullen keeps the Conservative Party line on the November ballot, a possible headache in a seat Trump took by more than 20 points. Constantino will face Democrat Blake Gendebien.
Where the Markets Won and Lost
Across the House betting odds, New York handed the prediction markets a split decision. They nailed most of the board: Lasher in NY-12, Constantino in NY-21, Lander in NY-10 and Hochul at the top all came in as priced. But they missed the biggest race, NY-13, where the money stuck with Espaillat and the voters did not. It is a useful reminder that these markets lean hard on incumbency and can be slower than a sharp poll to catch a late break. And keep in mind the figures are win prices set by traders, not predicted vote margins.
Looking to November
New York's June 23 vote barely grazed the top of the ticket, but it redrew the House map. The fall now holds a Hochul-Blakeman race she is heavily favored to win, a likely new democratic socialist in Congress from NY-13, and a Trump-aligned newcomer flying the Republican flag in the North Country.
For anyone following the New York race odds, the lesson of the night is that the markets are not infallible. They read NY-12 and NY-21 correctly but were beaten by a poll, and the voters, in NY-13. With the primary settled, the election odds now point to Nov. 3.
