Iran War Odds & Prediction Markets

Where the Iran Conflict Stands Now

Updated as of mid-2026. We refresh this section as the situation develops.

The conflict entered an uneasy holding pattern after a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire took effect on April 8, 2026, and was later extended. The truce followed a short, intense war that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, aimed at Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes, triggering a succession crisis. Iran appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader, and an interim leadership council formed amid the sudden loss of dozens of senior officials.

Negotiations, mediated at various points by Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan, have centered on a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, and resolve the future of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. Core disputes remain unresolved: uranium enrichment limits, the disposition of the highly enriched stockpile, verification protocols, and sanctions relief. The truce has been tested by intermittent strikes, and President Trump has pushed for tougher nuclear commitments. Inside Iran, protests that began in late December 2025 over the collapsing economy have spread across nearly all provinces, the rial has fallen sharply, and inflation on food has run extremely high, all of which feed the regime-stability markets below.

How the Iran Conflict Started: A Short History

The roots of the 2026 war run through years of confrontation over Iran's nuclear program. The collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran's steady accumulation of enriched uranium, and its support for armed groups across the region set the stage. Tensions escalated sharply in June 2025, when a 12-day war saw U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and an Iranian retaliatory strike on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar that caused no casualties. A ceasefire held into 2026.

That fragile peace broke on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched a joint operation explicitly aimed at Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and, according to the attackers, at inducing regime change. Khamenei was killed. Iran launched counter-strikes against Israel, U.S. bases across the region, and locations in Arab states, and moved to close the Strait of Hormuz. After a series of shifting U.S. deadlines and threats against Iranian energy infrastructure, Pakistan arranged a conditional two-week ceasefire on April 8, which has since been extended through repeated rounds of talks. The prediction markets below price what happens next.

Will the U.S. and Iran Reach a Peace Deal or Ceasefire?

This is the largest cluster of Iran markets and the one most journalists cite. Contracts ask whether the U.S. and Iran, and separately Israel and Iran, reach a formal or de facto ceasefire or a permanent peace deal by specific dates. The "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" market has been among the highest-volume political contracts ever created. These trade almost entirely on diplomatic news: a reported memorandum of understanding, a Trump statement on the Strait of Hormuz, an envoy meeting in Oman or Qatar. Because the current ceasefire is conditional and has been extended in short increments, the longer-dated peace markets price persistent skepticism that a comprehensive deal sticks.

Will the U.S. Strike or Invade Iran by a Given Date?

The "Will the US strike Iran by...?" contract accumulated more than $500 million in volume and became the single most-traded geopolitical market on Polymarket, peaking on the day of the late-February strikes. Related markets ask whether the U.S. invades Iran before 2027, or whether U.S. ground forces enter Iranian territory. These are pure escalation markets: binary yes-or-no questions that gap violently on a single headline, and they are the ones that drew the most ethical scrutiny after analysts flagged suspiciously well-timed trades around the strikes. Read the live "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" number in the glance section as a fast barometer of escalation risk, not a forecast.

Iran Nuclear Program: Uranium, Inspections, and a Bomb

A cluster of markets prices the future of Iran's nuclear program. The headline contract asks whether Iran agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by a given date, a market that has drawn well over $10 million in volume and swings on every report out of negotiations. Others ask whether the U.S. and Iran sign a formal nuclear deal by June 30 or before 2027, whether Iran regains JCPOA-style inspector access, whether it crosses specific uranium-enrichment thresholds, or whether Iran tests a nuclear weapon. These are thinner than the ceasefire markets but spike on every IAEA report. The central tension is that Iran's new leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei has signaled the stockpile must not leave the country, while the U.S. has threatened to seize or destroy it, so the surrender markets price a genuine standoff.

Will the Iranian Regime Fall? Regime-Change and Succession Markets

Despite the death of Khamenei, a succession crisis, and protests across nearly every province, the markets on whether the Islamic Republic falls by a given date have consistently traded in the low single digits. Traders see the security apparatus, the IRGC and Basij, as resilient even under enormous strain. Related markets price who ends up as the lasting Supreme Leader, whether Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position, and whether the government survives the current protest wave. These leadership markets are where the domestic crisis, the collapsing rial, food inflation, and arrests of protesters show up as probability. They are worth watching precisely because a low, stable number can move fast if security forces ever fracture.

Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Island, and Oil Markets

Roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which sits adjacent to Iran, so these markets connect the conflict directly to energy prices and portfolios. Contracts ask whether Hormuz closes or whether traffic returns to normal by a date. During calm periods these trade in the single digits, but they spiked sharply when Iran moved to close the strait after the February strikes. A related market tracks control of Kharg Island, which handles the large majority of Iranian oil exports. For traders, this is the cluster that links Iran odds most directly to oil and the broader economy.

Israel and Iran: Strikes, Peace, and Regional Spillover

Israel was a direct participant in the 2026 strikes, and a separate set of markets prices the Israel-Iran dimension specifically. The "Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" contract has drawn millions in volume and tracks whether the two reach a lasting settlement, distinct from the U.S.-Iran track. Other markets have priced whether Israel or other countries launch fresh strikes on Iran, whether the Israel-Hezbollah front reignites, and whether the ceasefire that paused that fighting holds. Because Israeli action can reopen the whole conflict overnight, these markets often move ahead of the U.S.-Iran ones. For the political dimension of Israel's role, including the future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, see our main war odds page, which covers the Israel and Gaza markets in their own section.

How Accurate Are the Iran Odds?

Iran is the best stress test prediction markets have faced. The markets correctly priced a rising probability of U.S. action in the weeks before the February strikes, moving well ahead of public confirmation. Large studies of Polymarket, spanning millions of users and tens of billions in volume, find that prices are generally well-calibrated: an outcome priced at 30 percent happens about 30 percent of the time. But the Iran markets also exposed the limits. The same episode produced credible-looking allegations of insider trading, with brand-new wallets placing well-timed strike bets, and thin markets like the nuclear-test or regime-fall contracts can be moved by a single large trader. Treat the high-volume ceasefire and strike numbers as a strong signal, and the thin regime and nuclear contracts as softer ones.

More War and Conflict Odds

Iran is one of several conflicts we track. For the full picture, see our main war and conflict odds page, which carries a quick-view strip and dedicated sections for every active conflict. We also maintain a deep-dive page on the Russia vs. Ukraine war odds and ceasefire markets, the other conflict with prediction-market volume on the scale of Iran. For domestic political markets, see our coverage of 2026 Senate odds and the 2028 presidential race.